Author Topic: berkshire - cheap?  (Read 73664 times)

gfp

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Re: berkshire - cheap?
« Reply #260 on: August 04, 2018, 05:38:39 AM »
So $200 - $150/share BV = $50/share for $10/share of real operating earnings...

Seems like you are pretending that operating businesses aren't included in book value at all.  Just because some of them are held at figures much lower than their current value doesn't mean you should pretend that book value doesn't include huge sums for operating businesses that produce those earnings.


gfp

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Re: berkshire - cheap?
« Reply #261 on: August 04, 2018, 05:51:00 AM »
Not sure where to put the BRK - AAPL comments but in the 10Q they show Apple at 47.2 Billion dollars, where it's closing price was 185.11.  So we can derive that Berkshire held approximately 254.98 million shares of Apple stock at the end of the quarter, much higher than most people were assuming - and consistent with something Warren muttered under his breath in one of the Becky Quick interviews that it was 'something like 250 million' at that point.  Current value of 254.98 million Apple shares: 53 Billion dollars.

nkp007

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Re: berkshire - cheap?
« Reply #262 on: August 04, 2018, 05:52:56 AM »
Berkshire earnings going parabolic: 67% increase in operating income. 44% increase in operating income if you take out insurance underwriting profits...

insane growth numbers for a boring, old-school, old-economy company.


gfp

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Re: berkshire - cheap?
« Reply #263 on: August 04, 2018, 05:59:20 AM »
You've got to love an investment/insurance company with $712 Billion in assets that has their Fixed Maturity (bonds) portfolio at $18.5 Billion.  Hmmm.  Does Warren like long term bonds right now?

nkp007

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Re: berkshire - cheap?
« Reply #264 on: August 04, 2018, 06:01:29 AM »
the short end of the treasury curve spiking over the last year means that the $100B cash stockpile is generating 2% or $2B a year!

SlowAppreciation

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Re: berkshire - cheap?
« Reply #265 on: August 04, 2018, 06:14:31 AM »
So $200 - $150/share BV = $50/share for $10/share of real operating earnings...

Seems like you are pretending that operating businesses aren't included in book value at all.  Just because some of them are held at figures much lower than their current value doesn't mean you should pretend that book value doesn't include huge sums for operating businesses that produce those earnings.

Sure, though if you just look at the liquid assets like cash, stocks, and bonds, they alone are $130/share.

shalab

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Re: berkshire - cheap?
« Reply #266 on: August 04, 2018, 06:20:46 AM »
Outstanding!
The quarter in done

BRK is extremly cheap, just trading at 1,28 x BV

BRK.B price                  $186.65                         -6.4% since end Q1
BV per B                   app  $145.20           1.29              app 3 % up since end Q1
KHC adj BVPS           app  $146.10           1.28        app 3 % up since end Q1

BRK a big big buy !

Hi John, my figures are not cursory. They are deeply calculated. I am just to laszy to publish the details. Soon we will see, how precise these figures were. Even today we are trading just app 1.28 x BV

FIGURES ARE OUT :   145.118 $ per B  (217.755 A)

The calculated BV figures - published from me here in the forum at end of Q1, see above - were extremly precise. Just 0.05 % difference. Thats nearly nothing.

BRK is now ( today)  extremly cheap. We are just trading at 1.32 BV. The BV today is app 150.40 $ per B. So extremly up since end of 2Q driven by AAPL BAC KHC etc

gfp

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Re: berkshire - cheap?
« Reply #267 on: August 04, 2018, 06:23:09 AM »
So $200 - $150/share BV = $50/share for $10/share of real operating earnings...

Seems like you are pretending that operating businesses aren't included in book value at all.  Just because some of them are held at figures much lower than their current value doesn't mean you should pretend that book value doesn't include huge sums for operating businesses that produce those earnings.

Sure, though if you just look at the liquid assets like cash, stocks, and bonds, they alone are $130/share.

I get it, but it seemed an odd approach to just subtract book value.  Additionally, operating income includes investment income on those assets, which is double counting even if you use the 130/share number.

I do understand the two column method of valuing Berkshire though

alpha

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Re: berkshire - cheap?
« Reply #268 on: August 04, 2018, 06:26:25 AM »
The quarter in done

BRK is extremly cheap, just trading at 1,28 x BV

BRK.B price                  $186.65                         -6.4% since end Q1
BV per B                   app  $145.20           1.29              app 3 % up since end Q1
KHC adj BVPS           app  $146.10           1.28        app 3 % up since end Q1

BRK a big big buy !

Hi John, my figures are not cursory. They are deeply calculated. I am just to laszy to publish the details. Soon we will see, how precise these figures were. Even today we are trading just app 1.28 x BV

FIGURES ARE OUT :   145.118 $ per B  (217.755 A)

The calculated BV figures - published from me here in the forum at end of Q1, see above - were extremly precise. Just 0.05 % difference. Thats nearly nothing.

BRK is now ( today)  extremly cheap. We are just trading at 1.32 BV. The BV today is app 150.40 $ per B. So extremly up since end of 2Q driven by AAPL BAC KHC etc

Great work Valuehalla!

John Hjorth

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Re: berkshire - cheap?
« Reply #269 on: August 04, 2018, 07:24:23 AM »
Not sure where to put the BRK - AAPL comments but in the 10Q they show Apple at 47.2 Billion dollars, where it's closing price was 185.11.  So we can derive that Berkshire held approximately 254.98 million shares of Apple stock at the end of the quarter, much higher than most people were assuming - and consistent with something Warren muttered under his breath in one of the Becky Quick interviews that it was 'something like 250 million' at that point.  Current value of 254.98 million Apple shares: 53 Billion dollars.

What an amazing calculation!, globalfinancepartners,

Thank you for digging up the info and doing the calculation.

It's almost like Berkshire on an escalator ... - Apple being the escalator, that is. The concept of "meaningful position size" is being taken to the next level here.
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
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