Author Topic: BRK MELT UP ahead ? potential drivers:  (Read 5698 times)

Valuehalla

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Re: BRK MELT UP ahead ? potential drivers:
« Reply #20 on: December 22, 2017, 04:05:36 PM »
I totally agree. In generell a good investing is to choose an asset, which has higher buying power in the future than other assets, which you didnt choose. I feel comfortable to have more than 50 % in BRK of my invested assets.
BRK FFH MKL LVLT CTL BAC WFC BMY MRK MCD MO PM


Cigarbutt

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Re: BRK MELT UP ahead ? potential drivers:
« Reply #21 on: December 22, 2017, 06:11:15 PM »
"Let's think about this logically. Suddenly these companies have a lot more money, paying less tax. But this could have been done ages ago. Seems to me there is too much money swirling around chasing assets or returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. What's it called when too much money is chasing fewer assets or money is indirectly helicoptered to people who own stocks?"
Quote from above.

"I have just one question - where is the money coming from?"
Quote borrowed from the past.

I don't know or I don't want to know?
The nice thing about BRK is that the hurdle rate will stay the same even if there is more money in the wallet.



Valuehalla

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Re: BRK MELT UP ahead ? potential drivers:
« Reply #22 on: Today at 08:47:44 AM »
When I started the MELT UP chapter on 27th Sept 2017 BRK.B was at 183 USD, today hitting 215 USD, so we have already 17,5 % MELT UP in 4 month.

One aspect which was not mentioned by me is, that the inthronisation of successors for WEB an CM could have a positive impact on the stockprice. I think this is an essential subject, for an equal valuation of the whole company in comparison to other, for example MKL.

Here is again the updated text from 27th Sept 2017:

+++++++++++ UPDATED ++++++++++

There are aspects which could soon cause a massiv increase in BV or a massiv increase of the operating profit.

I think there is a high probability to see a Melt Up concerning the stock price soon:

1) The Tax Reform DONE
    - reduced deferred taxes will increase the BV app. 34,4 B = app 10 %
    - in awareness of the repurchase program, an increase of BV shall drive the stock price immediately
    - FCF will increase, because operative gains will be taxed lower

2) The existing cash pile of more than 110 B 
      - could lead to a mighty acquisition - up to 80 B in standby -  maybe plus additional funds from 3G,
         KHC, BUD, QSR and / or leverage  ... the dream of a 250 B elephant could come true ....
      - depending on the details, this could increase the operating profit of BRK massivly
         if 80 B are invested for just (!) 5 % this will increase the operating profit from 20 to 24 = 20 % increase!
      - could lead to an adjustment concerning the stock repurchase program, which will also drive the stockprice

3) Higher interest rates: positive for cash holders  ONGOING
- 1 % higher interest rates means 1 B or slightly more profit on the 100 B: that s an increase of 5 % concerning
   a profit of app. 20B now
- Competition in insurance business will get more soft, higher prices could be realized

4) Naming successors for WEB and CM  DONE

In the medium or long term:

5) A broader market set back
    - maybe caused by TECHs / FANG: BRK could start a big wide range shopping. 1 year after the 1th Feb 2000
      when the last bubble busted, BRK nearly doubled and TECHs were defeated. Will we see a DejaVu ?

6) A heavy damage for the broader insurance businesses
    - after which strong BRK will exit in a better position than other weaker competitors, higher prices could
      be realized

All this factors will provide a more surging stockprice of BRK in 2018
« Last Edit: Today at 09:03:20 AM by Valuehalla »
BRK FFH MKL LVLT CTL BAC WFC BMY MRK MCD MO PM