Author Topic: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?  (Read 36926 times)

SwedishValue

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2018, 04:08:57 AM »
33:00 in, about the 1,2x floor (when it was still there). Still relevant.

https://youtu.be/2yMeIdheIS0


John Hjorth

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2018, 04:31:37 AM »
Your're welcome, SwedishValue, and thank you for your kind words! [ : - ) ], - Please feel free just to call me John - we are not that formal here on CoBF [ : - ) ].

- - - o 0 o - - -

alwaysinvert, I did not even know untill now that we're in the same boat here with Berkshire. Awesome blog post provided by you. Thank you for sharing it with us here on CoBF. Quite refreshing read, containing new line of thinking related to the "luxury problem" of Berkshire here on CoBF.

- - - o 0 o - - -

Personally, I do not rule out any alternative with regard to Berkshire capital allocation going forward.

I'll respectfully submit here, that Mr. Buffett is not totally rational on this matter. alwaysinvert uses the term:

Quote
... In some way or other he is likely to, by sheer necessity, affect the stock price in the coming months ...


Hasen't Mr. Buffet expressed, that there is no way, that he could defend standing in front of the shareholders at the AGM with USD 150 B on the Berkshire balance sheet in cash and T-bills? - He would actually have been in that particular situation right now, haden't he loaded up on Apple.


In the balance between rational capital allocation and the reluctance of buying partners out, going forward, naturally rationality must prevail.

When you deliberately seek to build a crowd of long term shareholders aligned with yourself, a side effect is lower liquidity in the stock. One can't get both simultaniously.

Personally, I don't possess any particular feelings for the customers and fund managers at:

Vanguard [9.24 % of out B]
Blackrock [7.66 % of out B]
State Street [6.25 % of out B]

Just let them do their thing, and let Mr. Buffett do our thing.

When Mr. Buffet was young, he was ringing doorbells in Omaha to pick up shares he considered cheap.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 04:40:33 AM by John Hjorth »
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longinvestor

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #12 on: August 04, 2018, 06:33:40 AM »
Its an Earnings explosion @ Berkshire.

sleepydragon

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #13 on: August 04, 2018, 07:25:41 AM »
Earning is good, but nothing like tender or buyback like CNBC predicted

nkp007

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #14 on: August 04, 2018, 07:55:06 AM »
If Buffett starts buying back shares, I think you'll start to see it in the stock price pretty quickly.

Valuehalla

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2018, 09:36:54 AM »
I think the situation concerning the buybacks is quite clear. According to the buyback text from 17th July: till 3rd August happened nothing.

We are clearly under a conservative IV, because we just trade 1.32 x BV. IV shall be around 240 to 275 $ per B share. (See various estimations for the IV; for example Semper Augustus Letter)

For me this means: from Monday on, the buybacks will start. They will end below a market price of 240 $ per B share

Bulks of cash are ready.

The time between 17th July (when the buyback was announced) till 3rd August was the time to load shares, cause the anoucment was more or less without any reasonable market results. During all this time we traded around 1.3 BV.

« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 09:42:48 AM by Valuehalla »
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sleepydragon

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #16 on: August 04, 2018, 11:37:03 AM »
Well, The press release says they may or may not buyback, depending on their view of the intrinsic value.
I am hoping no buyback :)  cuz i want to buy more

nkp007

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2018, 11:41:22 AM »
I think the situation concerning the buybacks is quite clear. According to the buyback text from 17th July: till 3rd August happened nothing.

We are clearly under a conservative IV, because we just trade 1.32 x BV. IV shall be around 240 to 275 $ per B share. (See various estimations for the IV; for example Semper Augustus Letter)

For me this means: from Monday on, the buybacks will start. They will end below a market price of 240 $ per B share

Bulks of cash are ready.

The time between 17th July (when the buyback was announced) till 3rd August was the time to load shares, cause the anoucment was more or less without any reasonable market results. During all this time we traded around 1.3 BV.

Agreed. It moved up like what? 4% after the buyback cap was lifted? Not a move at all. Still 10% below the highs.

Maybe there will be a chance to purchase shares ~$200 over the coming weeks. Or maybe the golden opportunity was the past two weeks when Buffett telegraphed what will likely be a massive, potentially accelerated, buyback.

aws

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #18 on: August 04, 2018, 11:57:02 AM »
I'll be perfectly happy if this buyback bump is a nonevent.  Berkshire the stock under-performed Berkshire the company so far in 2018, but I'm not sure that was the case in 2013, 2014, 2016, or 2017.  It seems like there have been many more undervalued spots in recent history than there are right now so I don't see why Buffett would be rushing to buy back shares hand over fist right now.  It would be great if some more China fears, Gates Foundation sales, and disappointed speculators drop the stock back under 200 for the foreseeable future.

I don't want to see a crash, but I just don't want the stock to look fully valued as it will be harder to buy new shares when money becomes available.  I have a lot more shares I want to buy over the next 10+ years, and I wouldn't want to be competing with the Company for shares, especially not over $200.

Valuehalla

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #19 on: August 04, 2018, 12:23:31 PM »
I think the situation concerning the buybacks is quite clear. According to the buyback text from 17th July: till 3rd August happened nothing.

We are clearly under a conservative IV, because we just trade 1.32 x BV. IV shall be around 240 to 275 $ per B share. (See various estimations for the IV; for example Semper Augustus Letter)

For me this means: from Monday on, the buybacks will start. They will end below a market price of 240 $ per B share

Bulks of cash are ready.

The time between 17th July (when the buyback was announced) till 3rd August was the time to load shares, cause the anoucment was more or less without any reasonable market results. During all this time we traded around 1.3 BV.

Agreed. It moved up like what? 4% after the buyback cap was lifted? Not a move at all. Still 10% below the highs.

Maybe there will be a chance to purchase shares ~$200 over the coming weeks. Or maybe the golden opportunity was the past two weeks when Buffett telegraphed what will likely be a massive, potentially accelerated, buyback.

BRK moved up after the 17rh July, but the BV also moved up driven by AAPL etc. the lowest valuation during the last weeks was app 1.28, now it is 1.32.
BRK FFH MKL LVLT CTL BAC WFC BMY MRK MCD MO PM