Author Topic: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?  (Read 37280 times)

rb

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #230 on: December 06, 2018, 12:22:22 PM »
I think they're in there buying shares. See that spike from 204 to 205 about an hour ago on good volume.


Jurgis

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #231 on: December 06, 2018, 12:26:19 PM »
I think they're in there buying shares. See that spike from 204 to 205 about an hour ago on good volume.

That was me.


JK


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rb

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #232 on: December 06, 2018, 12:28:02 PM »
You've can be such an asshole. You've spiked my limit orders are 204.10.  >:(

StubbleJumper

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #233 on: December 06, 2018, 12:31:44 PM »
You've can be such an asshole. You've spiked my limit orders are 204.10.  >:(


You're at $204.10?  Good, now I can penny you!   :P


SJ

rb

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #234 on: December 06, 2018, 12:33:09 PM »
By selling shares to me at 2014.10  :P

IceCreamMan

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #235 on: December 06, 2018, 08:45:14 PM »
Last night, as I was drifting off to sleep, a question occurred to me... does WEB count the market value of the securities portfolio or intrinsic value when calculating the IV of BRK? Theoretically, intrinsic value would make more sense because those securities are (presumably) owned because they're at a discount to IV. In practice, if this difference was large enough, they'd simply buy more of those stocks. On the other hand, they own others like KO, where I'm pretty sure WEB wouldn't buy more stock today. Also in practice, float is often an issue (10%+) as are taxes.  It's not a huge deal, just something fun to think about. So I figured I'd ask the group's thoughts. Thanks!

I think this is now more important and concrete. I think the way I asked the question last time must not have been clear because the responses, while good, did not address the issue directly (except for one response). I'm resurrecting this issue because I think it's probably of more interest to people now. The reason I had debated this issue earlier was the expectation that a particular situation might occur. This situation has presented itself: Apple is down from 225 at 9/30 to 171 today. On their 252 million shares, BRK now has a "loss" from last reporting date of $14 billion, less taxes in their BV. This is Apple alone. Then you've got BAC, WFC, etc. which are all down varying amounts from 9/30. Having set the stage, now the question is:

If WEB thinks buying back at 207 was a good idea in the quarter ended 9/30, is the buyback threshold  now:

1. Lower, because (a) securities per share amount is lower (the two-column people), (b) alternative uses of cash are more available or, at least, visible on the horizon
2. The same, because intrinsic value (and look through earnings) of those securities probably has not changed
3. Higher, because, (a) intrinsic value of BRK increases a little each quarter, (b) for companies in which they can't go over 10% they can still increase the per-BRK-share ownership of those companies in the hands of continuing shareholders by buying back stock from other shareholders, (c) rates are lower which serves to increase financial asset values including BRK intrinsic value?

There could be other reasons for choosing either of 1, 2, or 3. Please feel free to suggest them.

PS: If the fall in the market continues, it's possible that BRK BV growth is negative for the quarter. If that happens, it'll help display in the coming Qs how much, if any, of WEB's IV calculation is based on BVs. On the one hand he says BVs are now not appropriate (and I tend to agree with this). On the other hand, he's not one to change his mind/methods too quickly.

Is it possible that he mentally marks his securities at intrinsic value but with an option to exit at the current market price? This would imply that when one of his securities declines in price, he maintains his original mark, but if/as it rises above his intrinsic value estimate, he marks it closer to market as he considers selling. I guess this would also mean that the effect on Buffett's estimate of Berkshire's intrinsic value depends on the relationship between AAPL's current price and his AAPL intrinsic value estimate (not just the change in AAPL's price alone). For example, if Buffett's intrinsic value estimate for AAPL is $250, then the recent price movement doesn't change his estimate of Berkshire's intrinsic value, but if his estimate is $150, it might. Also, maybe a counteracting force is that when his securities decline with the broader market, he sees more opportunities, so he's less likely to repurchase BRK at the same ratio of price/IV.

One weakness of this theory is that Buffett rarely sells major investments, so it seems like maybe he wouldn't be able to justify marking up securities to market price on the assumption that he might exit soon. He held KO through thick and thin of valuations...