Author Topic: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?  (Read 141346 times)

nickenumbers

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #240 on: December 14, 2018, 12:27:46 PM »
longinvestor,

We have some time ago [-totally unspoken, & unanimously!]""appointed" SwedishValue the curator of such data". [Goes like this : Don't post anything of particular interest here on CoBF! - Your destiny will be cumbersome to keep it updated! [ ; - D ]]

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-Any update, SwedishValue? [ : - ) ] [<- SwedishValue, please don't take it too seriously ...]

So True John Hjorth!!!  Well said.   I will wait patiently and watch.....   :o
The fastest Cheetah still waits for the lame baby antelope.  ..patience..


Jurgis

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #241 on: December 14, 2018, 12:50:51 PM »
I wonder if Buffett is buying more AAPL / banks or if he's buying back stock. Or neither. Or both.

Stay tuned.  8)
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
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aws

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #242 on: December 14, 2018, 04:42:42 PM »
I calculate that as of today the top 7 holdings (aapl, bac, wfc, ko, axp, khc, and usb) have declined a total of $24.23B from the prior quarter as of today.  These 7 make up at current value 141B of the 191B market cap of their portfolio according to CNBC tracker.  I didn't bother to calculate the loss on the remaining $50B in securities, but let's just assume it washed with operating earnings QTD.  So the loss from those 7 big positions brings the book value down roughly $10/sh pretax or something like $7.50 after tax.

So it seems like after subtracting portfolio losses Berkshire is trading at around exactly where we know he was buying it back.  That was before marking up for excellent Q3 earnings, but before a plethora of additional opportunities to deploy capital in the markets opened up.  So if I had to guess I would think he's buying slowly just like in Q3.  Maybe a few billion total since there have been more days with a price that may be significantly below IV than there were in Aug-Sep.

John Hjorth

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #243 on: December 15, 2018, 08:02:24 AM »
Today I have taken a stab against doing a calculation/estimate of maximum share buybacks in the past part of this quarter, based on available data on NYSE.com for the quarter, at alternative buyback thresholds, measured as share price for the B, and the equivalent price for A [ x1,500], but for the A based on the price pattern & movements for the A.

I had to make a decision to calculate daily price averages based on daily open/close or on daily high/low. I went on with daily open/close.

First figure : Buyback threshold, expressed as the price for the B share. [Equivivalent for the A: x1,500.]
Second figure : Estimated maximum capital allocation to share buybacks for the period October 1th - December 14th 2018. [USD B]
Third figure : Average cost per share bought back, expressed as a B share equivalent price.

Results:

195 : 00.000 - N/A
196 : 00.000 - N/A
197 : 00.000 - N/A
198 : 00.000 - N/A
199 : 00.382 - 198.77
200 : 00.382 - 198.77
201 : 00.973 - 199.86
202 : 01.831 - 200.59
203 : 02.096 - 200.80
204 : 02.921 - 201.60
205 : 03.169 - 201.80
206 : 03.720 - 202.33
207 : 04.277 - 202.86
208 : 05.454 - 203.82
209 : 06.435 - 204.50
210 : 09.943 - 204.84
211 : 07.154 - 204.99
212 : 07.537 - 205.30
213 : 07.567 - 205.33
214 : 07.976 - 205.71
215 : 08.646 - 207.19
216 : 09.551 - 207.95
217 : 10.441 - 209.18
218 : 12.020 - 209.65
219 : 12.705 - 209.65
220 : 12.943 - 209.83
221 : 13.823 - 210.48
222 : 14.267 - 210.89
223 : 14.660 - 211.11
224 : 14.660 - 211.11
225 : 14.660 - 211.11
226 : 14.660 - 211.11
227 : 14.660 - 211.11
228 : 14.660 - 211.11
229 : 14.660 - 211.11
230 : 14.660 - 211.11

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Tool attached.

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I'm actually surprised by these figures [larger than I expected] - I wonder if I have screwed up somewhere? - Please feel free to tear it apart!

[Disclaimer : My Excel is setup to Danish - so I actually don't know if formulas and digit separators converts correctly for you.]
« Last Edit: December 15, 2018, 09:33:38 AM by John Hjorth »
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nickenumbers

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #244 on: December 17, 2018, 12:46:07 PM »
Who thinks BRK is repurchasing it's own stock today?





The fastest Cheetah still waits for the lame baby antelope.  ..patience..

Jurgis

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #245 on: December 18, 2018, 08:03:29 AM »
Who thinks BRK is repurchasing it's own stock today?

I think that BRK is buying. But I would say that they are buying more other stocks than its own. In other words, I am willing to bet that repurchases are less than 50% of money spent on all purchases this quarter.
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
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compounding

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #246 on: December 18, 2018, 09:58:31 AM »
Who thinks BRK is repurchasing it's own stock today?

I think that BRK is buying. But I would say that they are buying more other stocks than its own. In other words, I am willing to bet that repurchases are less than 50% of money spent on all purchases this quarter.

I would put the over/under at 10-15%.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2018, 10:10:06 AM by compounding »
@JohanHjortsson

John Hjorth

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #247 on: December 18, 2018, 12:55:00 PM »
More data! [and a bit less talk ...]:

Estimated Berkshire selfimposed acquisition capacity EOP 2018Q3 per company for AAPL and the US banks [ranked]:

AAPL : USD 50,053 M
JPM   : USD 33,438 M
GS    : USD   4,129 M
BAC  : USD   2,329 M
USB  : USD   1,293 M
BK    : USD      891 M

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BRK maximum volume based buybacks at price ceiling 208 [<- known for 2018Q3] for period October 1st - December 14th 2018 - a material part of 2018Q4 : USD 5,454 M.

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Calculation attached.
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-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

alwaysinvert

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #248 on: December 18, 2018, 01:24:31 PM »
208 was the average price bought at so it couldn't logically have been the ceiling.

John Hjorth

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Re: Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
« Reply #249 on: December 18, 2018, 01:43:47 PM »
alwaysinvert,

That's somehow nitpicking. Please feel free to make your own assumption about the buyback ceiling for 2018Q4, and just substitute in my last post with the figure that fits you, from this post.

The point is, this is a loose estimation - you could also nitpick that the outstanding shares for each company is not by a clear cut date and so on ... - the point is, that this gives an overall picture, with some slack in the calculations, also an overestimation [in USD M] because of the market price development in 2018Q4.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2018, 02:13:03 PM by John Hjorth »
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai