Author Topic: Buffett/Berkshire - general news  (Read 301658 times)

Charlie

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #780 on: May 16, 2018, 12:40:09 PM »
"While I think Semper has done some great work on Berkshire, I'd say Tilson has provided a good service of updating this valuation over the years.  It makes sense, doesn't require 50 pages of explanation, and is within the range of a reasonable IV.  As Buffett says, you don't need a scale to tell if a man is overweight."

+1

Everybody has their misses: Tilsons hedge fund performance, his $3000 investing seminars and Semper Augustus discussion about
Index Funds.  ;)


cubsfan

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #781 on: May 16, 2018, 01:35:58 PM »
For those of us in BRK early, Tilson's updates were excellent. So, yea, Semper writeup is incredible in comparison, but if Tilson helped a lot of people from not selling BRK - he did them a huge favor.
It certainly worked in my case, and with many of my investees.

longinvestor

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  • Never interrupt compounding unnecessarily -Munger
Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #782 on: May 16, 2018, 01:38:51 PM »
"While I think Semper has done some great work on Berkshire, I'd say Tilson has provided a good service of updating this valuation over the years.  It makes sense, doesn't require 50 pages of explanation, and is within the range of a reasonable IV.  As Buffett says, you don't need a scale to tell if a man is overweight."

+1

Everybody has their misses: Tilsons hedge fund performance, his $3000 investing seminars and Semper Augustus discussion about
Index Funds.  ;)
Well said. Semper sounded like the barber talking down the index. Those 50 pages I skipped right past to the 50 on Berkshire. To me, 50 pages of lucid details on Berkshire is alright if seen in the backdrop of MV being marked down relative to IV for year after year. Hes shouting, I can understand, so can others around here.

All that said, my rationale for preferring Semper versus Tilson is that T sounds awfully like a thesis based on price. Not entirely but substantially so.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2018, 01:40:37 PM by longinvestor »

John Hjorth

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #783 on: May 21, 2018, 09:46:47 AM »
"While I think Semper has done some great work on Berkshire, I'd say Tilson has provided a good service of updating this valuation over the years.  It makes sense, doesn't require 50 pages of explanation, and is within the range of a reasonable IV.  As Buffett says, you don't need a scale to tell if a man is overweight."

+1

Everybody has their misses: Tilsons hedge fund performance, his $3000 investing seminars and Semper Augustus discussion about
Index Funds.  ;)
Well said. Semper sounded like the barber talking down the index. Those 50 pages I skipped right past to the 50 on Berkshire. To me, 50 pages of lucid details on Berkshire is alright if seen in the backdrop of MV being marked down relative to IV for year after year. Hes shouting, I can understand, so can others around here.

All that said, my rationale for preferring Semper versus Tilson is that T sounds awfully like a thesis based on price. Not entirely but substantially so.
While I think Semper has done some great work on Berkshire, I'd say Tilson has provided a good service of updating this valuation over the years.  It makes sense, doesn't require 50 pages of explanation, and is within the range of a reasonable IV.  As Buffett says, you don't need a scale to tell if a man is overweight.
For those of us in BRK early, Tilson's updates were excellent. So, yea, Semper writeup is incredible in comparison, but if Tilson helped a lot of people from not selling BRK - he did them a huge favor.
It certainly worked in my case, and with many of my investees.

Thank you for polite, mild and well reasoned push back. I had no idea that Mr. Tilson's work on Berkshire had this impact on several CoBF members holding Berkshire for the long term. Somehow, I feel embarrassed right now. Going forward, I'll try to be more humble.
In the race of excellence there is no finish line.
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cubsfan

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #784 on: May 21, 2018, 12:20:02 PM »
John - don't worry about it. You were civil about the whole thing, and we're all exchanging ideas here.
The Semper piece is fantastic, but in the absence of that, Tilson sharing his free research was commendable
and helpful to those that used it.

John Hjorth

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #785 on: May 21, 2018, 04:09:12 PM »
John - don't worry about it. You were civil about the whole thing, and we're all exchanging ideas here. The Semper piece is fantastic, but in the absence of that, Tilson sharing his free research was commendable and helpful to those that used it.

Thank you, cubsfan.
In the race of excellence there is no finish line.
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai


Munger_Disciple

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #787 on: May 22, 2018, 10:11:02 AM »
Not so flattering picture of BYD buses' performance in the LA area:

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-buses-20180520-story.html

Actual range obtained seems to be about 1/3 rd of the advertised range. Only about 50 miles!

John Hjorth

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #788 on: May 22, 2018, 11:47:05 AM »
Not so flattering picture of BYD buses' performance in the LA area:

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-buses-20180520-story.html

Actual range obtained seems to be about 1/3 rd of the advertised range. Only about 50 miles!

It actually reads a bit concerning, Munger_Disciple,

Somehow, tehnical specifications - here understood as "promises" to the BYD client, I suppose must the key here. I suppose everybody knows that there are a lot steep streets in Los Angeles. Isen't what matter actual range [while driving the busses in LA] compared to what a LA bus is actually driving per day? If the existing battery capacity isen't sufficient, isen't it just a matter adding more battery blocks under the floor of the bus, untill the [darn] thing actually can deliver as expected for that particular driving environment? [I'm not an engineer.]
In the race of excellence there is no finish line.
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

Munger_Disciple

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #789 on: May 22, 2018, 12:21:28 PM »
I don't know what average distance an LA city bus travels per day, but the average range of all the LA city buses (which are predominantly natural gas powered) is 385 miles. So the BYD bus gets 1/8th the range which seems very low to me. I am not a battery/bus expert but I don't think it is as simple as adding more batteries under the bus. A whole host of issues will need to considered: cost, extra weight, clearance, safety, charging times, etc...