Author Topic: Buffett/Berkshire - general news  (Read 494889 times)

Dynamic

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #860 on: August 09, 2018, 07:24:33 AM »
Well, the 13F is not long to wait for, then we'll have an actual share count as of 30th June 2018, filed with the SEC, instead of having to back-calculate from dividing the reported Q2 valuation of their Apple stake to the nearest $0.1bn by the presumed closing price they would have used to derive it, which is usually pretty reliable.

Buffett also muttered some comments to Becky Quick in a CNBC interview prior to the Annual Meeting and Q1 financials which seemed in accordance with the current holdings according to what someone mentioned in another thread - though I haven't checked it - and thinking about it, Warren's command of the figures and instant recall is legendary, so an off-the-cuff mumbled remark is probably going to be correct in his case.

I'm thinking they did and still do hold more than 5.0% and would have to tell the SEC every time their holding increases by 1% more, if I understand the rules


Jurgis

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #861 on: August 09, 2018, 10:38:20 AM »
I wonder what you guys think about BRK taking (very close to) 5% position in companies and having to sell down to 5% due to share buybacks. Isn't this very short term investing? I.e. they pretty much know the company will be buying back shares and they know that they will have to sell down within a quarter, so their holding time is a quarter or two for that slice of position. Is it a good investment? (Yeah, if there's bull market in that stock, it is, but Buffett would not buy expecting single quarter bull market, would he?). Why not buy 4.8% or some other number where they would not be forced to sell within short time frame?

Not that this matters a lot, but I just wonder...
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Dynamic

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #862 on: August 09, 2018, 10:57:23 AM »
Yeah, that's another reason I think they're over 5%. It's much more speculative if you're a forced seller. The odds may be tilted in your favour if you buy well below IV, but it's still pretty speculative.

LC

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #863 on: August 09, 2018, 11:52:33 AM »
End quarterly guidance! Indeed. Let’s see how this plays out.

Not sure I agree. I don't view quarterly guidance as a measure to price the stock - but rather to "price" management. How accurate are management's estimates? If they're regularly inaccurate, why is that? Is the business very volatile and even management cannot get much clarity? Is management just dumb, or at worse, dishonest?

I think the more communication between management and shareholders, the better - even if it just management's estimate. It's the shareholder's job to manage that information.
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alwaysinvert

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #864 on: August 13, 2018, 06:44:37 PM »
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180813005684/en/

Airlines and banks... no mention of Apple there

Dynamic

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #865 on: August 14, 2018, 12:14:39 AM »
I suspect they're specifically mentioning the banking and airline industries because it's those industries where some positions are close to 10% and they're simultaneously adding to some of the similar banks that are well below 10%.

They know that their 13-F is widely scrutinised to garner insights into the thinking of one of the greatest investors (and two other great investors picked by him), so they're indicating that in the case of banks and airlines, they'll have sold some Wells Fargo, almost certainly, to stay below 10% as they repurchase, but may have added to Bank of America, say, or Bank of New York Mellon or an investment bank. They wish to ensure that investors and reporters do not erroneously attribute such sales to having a preference of giving any endorsement to one bank over another or one airline over another, or cause a panic sell-off in a troubled bank like Wells Fargo based on a misinterpretation, or cause a run-up in a bank being added to, which might even constitute inadvertent market manipulation and work against their self-interest as a current seller/buyer respectively.

In the case of Apple, they're not near the 10% threshold and they're not investing in other similar companies, so no such buying/selling differential will be evident.

I'm not sure I'll do so tomorrow 'afternoon' which is some time in the evening or night here in the UK, but I'll aim to update my public Look Through Google Sheets with both the Berkshire 13-F and the New England Asset Management 13-F, plus some other recent filings such as the 13G/A on Axalta. Until now, as we only had to wait a week or two since the Q2 financials, I decided not to update the COMBINED HOLDINGS worksheet tab with the information gleaned regarding small changes. As always, my spreadsheet will differ from those published in most places on the internet because I include New England Asset Management (thanks @globalfinancepartners) and make adjustments for some known or assumed foreign holdings that don't get reported on 13-F and also for known holdings within Berkshire's pensions funds that aren't for the benefit of shareholders.

Jurgis

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #866 on: August 14, 2018, 04:06:05 AM »
Quote
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180813005684/en/

This reraises the question I had above in the thread. Why not pre-plan and not bump into 5%/10% limits and have to sell? Seems like these guys need some investment planning people or something...

(And as above, yeah, in bull market maybe you leave money on the table by taking position that does not bump into 5/10 limits. But you won't always have gains when selling is forced).
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gfp

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Zorrofan

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #868 on: August 14, 2018, 02:48:30 PM »
Any idea why BRK sold out of Verisk?

rb

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #869 on: August 14, 2018, 02:50:22 PM »
Valuation?