Author Topic: Buffett/Berkshire - general news  (Read 488845 times)

longinvestor

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #530 on: August 04, 2017, 09:26:10 PM »
BV @ $182,816, up 6.2% from YE 2016. At this run rate, if it gets to $195K by YE, we are trading in the 1.4x range. Effectively, it has been this range bound for several years now. I have been irrational in my buying behavior, trying to pick up cheap. Orders did not fill, perhaps won't. I am likely committing the mistake mentioned in Phil Fischer's Common stocks - Uncommon profits and surely will regret it later! The most rational thing for the long term is not overthink this and just buy at these prices. There is the famous The market can behave irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.. Replace the word solvent with patient and you have what's going on with BRK today;  it is the opposite, somewhat of a bonanza of being able to accumulate. Well, if you believe so ;) We will see in time, won't we?




 
« Last Edit: August 04, 2017, 09:53:42 PM by longinvestor »


John Hjorth

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #531 on: August 04, 2017, 10:35:13 PM »
I'm in your camp on this, longinvestor,

Furthermore, - say, you try to pick it up relatively cheap for two years - you are then subject to "the risk" of a large Berkshire aquisition in that period, creating a jump upwards in earnings going forward, which most likely will influence market price upwards, generating a miss out for the forward net Berkshire buyer.

We know the Oncor deal is in the mold right now, but generally we do not know what is going on at Mr. Buffetts desk.
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james22

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #532 on: August 04, 2017, 10:46:29 PM »
GMO's James Montier:

All these years I have looked to Warren Buffett as a beacon of hope. Two months ago, he said that equities look cheap, relative to interest rates. It seemed like a dreadful thing to say.

It might be true only if you believed there was absolutely no mean reversion—in that case you’d be looking at a 3% real return from equities, zero from bonds, and, say, minus 1% or 2% from cash. But here was a man who, using his favorite valuation indicator of market cap to gross domestic product, pointed to the tech bubble of 2000 and said it was insane. Using the same indicator, he pointed out when to buy equities in late 2008, early ’09.

Here we are within a hair’s breadth of the levels in 2000, and he is saying equities are cheap. This is an unvaluelike statement, and I don’t think it’s true. There are plenty of reasons why interest rates are not related to performance—very low rates haven’t stopped a 50% decline in Japan.

So I’m sticking to dead heroes now—Ben Graham and John Maynard Keynes.


http://www.barrons.com/articles/coping-with-the-foie-gras-stock-market-1501305385
BRK, BAM l SV, EM l Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac l Stable Value, Cash Value

fareastwarriors

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #533 on: August 07, 2017, 10:34:24 AM »

longinvestor

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #534 on: August 07, 2017, 04:51:46 PM »
Berkshire Shares need Deal Fuel to Fly Any Higher


https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-08-07/berkshire-shares-need-buffett-deal-fuel-to-fly-higher

Greg Warren of Morningstar, who is quoted here represents the peanut gallery of analysts on the stage@the annual meeting. He sounds like a pompous ass when he opens his mouth. His bone to pick comes from the fact that BRK has blown right past his estimate of FV. Believe he had that at $ 250K for the A.

A couple of years ago, he asked Buffett if there would be a share buyback at the1.2x threshold, between quarterly earnings reports and Buffett clearly said no. That didn't stop Greg from reporting that "Buffett confirmed to us that they would buy shares back before reporting the BV to the public". That's kind of stupid because the exact BV number is in all likelihood unknown to anyone, including the CFO of BRK until just prior to release.

Greg's words are worthless to me. As far as I'm concerned, he wastes my time with the 6 questions he does get to ask at the annual meeting.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2017, 07:28:55 PM by longinvestor »

John Hjorth

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #535 on: August 08, 2017, 01:44:00 AM »
Greg Warren of Morningstar, who is quoted here represents the peanut gallery of analysts on the stage@the annual meeting. He sounds like a pompous ass when he opens his mouth. His bone to pick comes from the fact that BRK has blown right past his estimate of FV. Believe he had that at $ 250K for the A.

A couple of years ago, he asked Buffett if there would be a share buyback at the1.2x threshold, between quarterly earnings reports and Buffett clearly said no. That didn't stop Greg from reporting that "Buffett confirmed to us that they would buy shares back before reporting the BV to the public". That's kind of stupid because the exact BV number is in all likelihood unknown to anyone, including the CFO of BRK until just prior to release.

Greg's words are worthless to me. As far as I'm concerned, he wastes my time with the 6 questions he does get to ask at the annual meeting.

Hilarious. Love it. Made my day. [ : - ) ]
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

fareastwarriors

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #536 on: August 08, 2017, 12:57:11 PM »

longinvestor

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #537 on: August 09, 2017, 04:20:02 AM »
Warren Buffett Likes Solar, but Not the Price Tag

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-08/warren-buffett-likes-solar-but-not-the-price-tag

The headline should instead read " Falling energy prices don't support 2 year payback demands of Wall Street financiers". BHE by passing along cost savings to rate payers is shaking things up in the Utility world. This is why Oncor is wooing BHE versus vulture capital. Also, rooftop financiers walked away from AZ after saddling homeowners with expensive financing. Surely the fine print on rooftop contracts says something about sell back rates are subject to energy market forces and prices used for investment justification may not be realized.

 It's easy to hide behind or obfuscate by buying headlines!

gfp

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #538 on: August 10, 2017, 12:00:23 PM »
Gen Re did a quota share deal in Australia that will see them take 60% of AMP's retail life business onto their books -

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/amp-to-release-capital-after-500-million-reinsurance-deal/news-story/797c94aaac93cc4e5e387255a464d046

It has been interesting to see the moves and growth that have started since Ajit and Kara Raigul took over.

John Hjorth

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Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #539 on: August 10, 2017, 12:52:48 PM »
globalfinancepartners,

During the years, it has come to my attention, that you have a really deep and detailed knowledge, understanding and view of insurance operations of Berkshire [consistently & continuously hard work, to cut it to the bone .... - out of pure interest].

Personally, I would really appreciate, if you would share with me and our fellow board members the temperature of the Berkshire insurance operations, as you perceive them right now.

For my part, it would be really appreciated. We have a separate topic for the 2017Q2 on here, that I hope you will use, instead of this "general news" topic, so that what is on your mind does not "drown".

Thank you in advance, if you're in on it.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2017, 01:07:47 PM by John Hjorth »
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai