Author Topic: How to Increase Berkshire Share Price?  (Read 4500 times)

Dynamic

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Re: How to Increase Berkshire Share Price?
« Reply #20 on: May 14, 2019, 09:38:18 AM »
The 13-F must be filed 45 days after the quarter end, which means 15th May as April has 30 days (and 14th for all other months - Feb, Aug, Nov as the preceding month has 31 days)

That form does not disclose the Berkshire Hathaway share count. The front page of the 10-Q quarterly results is where you'll find the share count as of 25th April, which is the latest known.
(723,114 Class A + 1,368,243,498 Class B = 1,635,276.33 Class A equivalent or 2,452,914,498 Class B equivalent, economically).
The 10-Q revealed approx 1,635,433 Class A equivalent at 31st March (roughly 2,453,149,500 Class B equiv) which one would use to calculate items such as Book Value Per Share. That's the best guide to recent repurchase activity we have.

I hope to edit my thread regarding Look-Through Portfolio fairly promptly, but some of the news outlets will probably report on Berkshire's own 13-F before I get to it. Unlike me, other sources habitually ignore the New England Asset Management 13-F holdings (Other Manager Ref = "01 02" signifies Berkshire/Gen Re holdings there), which I include and they don't adjust for pension holdings or foreign holdings where known.

The only holdings I know are going to be different from 31st Dec 2018 are:

DAL Delta Air Lines - went over 10% accidentally so filed 13G and then increased to about 10.4%.

WFC Wells Fargo - trimmed position to 423-424 million shares, as it is every quarter, to remain below 10% to avoid becoming a Bank Holding Company. Value to nearest $0.1bn was disclosed in 10-Q as $20.9bn at 31st March. The only top-5 position to change share count materially.

AMZN Amazon - Buffett disclosed that Todd or Ted has bought some, so it's going to probably be a lot less than $13bn worth, as each of them manages about that amount of capital. My money would be on R. Ted Weschler, who I think was responsible for the initial stake in Apple according to an interview I once saw, but we won't know unless they happen to disclose it later. Also, we won't know for sure if any of this position will be for the benefit of pension fund beneficiaries rather than shareholders.

USG - This will presumably show up in the 13-F but the takeover by Knauf completed after the quarter end around 24th April for $43.50 per share in cash in addition to the October 2018 dividend of $0.50.


nickenumbers

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Re: How to Increase Berkshire Share Price?
« Reply #21 on: May 15, 2019, 06:53:16 AM »
I have really gotten a lot from all of your opinions and input.

I am not wedded to this argument that I am going to make, but I think it is worth considering.


An argument can be made that WEB/CM have become a version of the old school consolidated assets inside the company with strong control by a few managers/BOD.  [Like an old Railroad or Northern Pipeline.]  The ability for the public to buy into the entity is available and encouraged, but the public doesn't really have much chance of forcing BRK's hand to make use of its extremely large cash position and assets.  The Shareholders want them to use the cash to purchase businesses, or repurchase shares.  Isn't this a flavor of exactly what WEB did when he got into value investing.  He would Find something that trades at a discount to IV and go purchase it and wait until the scales change to make it rise to IV.  Or he would go activist and push and prod.

And here WEB is 40 yrs later with way way way more cash than he needs...  And he has fortified himself into a position where he can not be forced to act.


I am a super WEB/CM fan and I know they will continue to impress and astound us, but I think I see a little hypocrisy at play.

Does this dog hunt?  What do you guys think?
« Last Edit: May 15, 2019, 06:55:02 AM by nickenumbers »
The fastest Cheetah still waits for the lame baby antelope.  ..patience..

Dynamic

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Re: How to Increase Berkshire Share Price?
« Reply #22 on: May 15, 2019, 08:20:05 AM »
In my opinion they positioned themselves well to be able to ignore calls for them to act now and to ignore people on the sidelines shouting Swing You Bum!

The OXY preferred and warrants deal was a decent use of cash, but there's plenty of cash left.

In my opinion the float liability offsets the cash balance almost exactly when the market is fairly high like now, so there's no real cash drag, they're just earning the return on their non-cash assets, and I'm happy for them to wait. And when the market falls seriously, maybe it a year or two, and prospective returns improve, there will be opportunities for some greatly value-enhancing deals like the OXY one and possibly even some large acquisitions, which would then be leveraged by the use of float-funded capital. I'm happy for them to keep waiting for the fat pitch and I'm happy for them to limit my downside risk so well while producing something around 10% compound growth in IV.

I think many many others simply see the cash as a wasted opportunity, but I'm happy for them to be patient and just drip-feed it into suitable stocks while waiting for the fat pitches. I'm probably in the minority.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2019, 09:16:05 AM by Dynamic »

longinvestor

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Re: How to Increase Berkshire Share Price?
« Reply #23 on: May 15, 2019, 08:58:01 AM »
I am sincerely hoping that the market gifts Buffett a 50 cent dollar on his own shares. Buffett grew up finding those routinely. Then he got weaned off of that by Munger in the flight to quality. Now they are forced to wait and they find themselves in a world in which  patience is rare. Especially the monumental variety like theirs.

 Itíll be the proverbial last laugh.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2019, 09:04:38 AM by longinvestor »

CorpRaider

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Re: How to Increase Berkshire Share Price?
« Reply #24 on: May 15, 2019, 11:53:08 AM »
For nearly 60 years he's been saying his portfolio is likely to underperform in a rapidly advancing bull market and whoop some ass when the worm turns. 

DooDiligence

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Re: How to Increase Berkshire Share Price?
« Reply #25 on: May 15, 2019, 11:55:27 AM »
In my opinion they positioned themselves well to be able to ignore calls for them to act now and to ignore people on the sidelines shouting Swing You Bum!

The OXY preferred and warrants deal was a decent use of cash, but there's plenty of cash left.

In my opinion the float liability offsets the cash balance almost exactly when the market is fairly high like now, so there's no real cash drag, they're just earning the return on their non-cash assets, and I'm happy for them to wait. And when the market falls seriously, maybe it a year or two, and prospective returns improve, there will be opportunities for some greatly value-enhancing deals like the OXY one and possibly even some large acquisitions, which would then be leveraged by the use of float-funded capital. I'm happy for them to keep waiting for the fat pitch and I'm happy for them to limit my downside risk so well while producing something around 10% compound growth in IV.

I think many many others simply see the cash as a wasted opportunity, but I'm happy for them to be patient and just drip-feed it into suitable stocks while waiting for the fat pitches. I'm probably in the minority.

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SwedishValue

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Re: How to Increase Berkshire Share Price?
« Reply #26 on: May 15, 2019, 11:59:38 AM »
What we havenít seen much of during the first 50 years however, is Buffett having a security available at a price he likes, and pulling out the peashooter instead of his elephant gun - like the way heís done with share repurchases so far.

xo 1

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Re: How to Increase Berkshire Share Price?
« Reply #27 on: May 16, 2019, 01:40:56 AM »
What we havenít seen much of during the first 50 years however, is Buffett having a security available at a price he likes, and pulling out the peashooter instead of his elephant gun - like the way heís done with share repurchases so far.
For all the "explanations" about wanting to treat shareholders as partners and not as counterparties and wanting to be certain that a shareholder contemplating selling has all the information that the shareholder needs, I concur.  Over the past decade, I have spent more time trying to understand this aspect of BRK than any other.  The retrospectively silly pegs to BV; the nibbling; the continued affirmations that they will act aggressively.  I just don't get it.  Still, I like the increase in runrate.  If BRK will repurchase $1.7 billion of shares a quarter, this will start to become material very quickly.  It was 2X the Amazon purchase.  Annualized, that's approximately 50% of each of Ted and Todd's pool, it is equal to Charlie's entire stake, it is a large portion of cash earned from operating businesses in the quarter, etc., so while it is well below what I'd like to see, it is moving in the right direction and, for last quarter only, may be reaching the point where any more aggressive purchasing could start to impact share price.