Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Message Board

General Category => Berkshire Hathaway => Topic started by: Dynamic on August 16, 2016, 01:09:38 AM

Title: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on August 16, 2016, 01:09:38 AM
View-only example look through portfolio
(set to GBP currency - only I can edit this but I think you can select and copy the cells into your own Google Drive spreadsheet):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit?usp=sharing)

Publicly editable version of look-through portfolio:
(might get corrupted by someone else's edits, but you can have a play with it and try changing currency and number of shares held):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing)

At time of posting this is updated to 30th June 2016 holdings as declared in 15th August 2016 13-F and the shares oustanding at the same date from the 10Q.

Commentary:

I track our total personal portfolio and Watchlist using Google Sheets in Google Drive (the GOOGLEFINANCE function is very useful for currency conversion and delayed prices and basic financials such as EPS). I also use various tabs to track our investment ledgers and our monthly and annual deposits into our tax-advantaged investment accounts, and to keep an eye on our pension schemes.

I wanted to make a look-through total portfolio, partly to gauge our total exposure to companies we hold that are also held by Berkshire Hathaway, such as Wells Fargo, where our look-through stake is about half of our direct stake because we're fairly heavily into BRK.

As a by-product, I've created a Google Sheet which you might wish to look at, borrow from or select-All and Copy into your own Google Sheet on Google Drive. If you paste into Excel or LibreOffice Calc you'll probably lose the GoogleFinance functionality.

The link below is my personal version (only I can edit it, but anyone can view it and I believe could copy and paste the cells to another sheet they can edit):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit?usp=sharing)

The link below this is publicly editable by anyone (so you can play with it, collaborate on it or paste the contents of the other sheet into it):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing)

If you enter in the blue cells your number of BRK class A shares and class B shares and your native currency (e.g. GBP, EUR, USD, CAD etc.) it converts it into equivalent B shares and it estimates look-through holding values from row 8 down, and in columns way over to the right, it includes the EPS reported by GoogleFinance. Some shares have an Error (N/A) so I set these to zero in totalling EPS per BRK.B, but these are mostly minor holdings, so the overall look-through EPS at the bottom right is about right.

As a crude indication, as for my full portfolio, I also include Low, Typical and High estimates of trading range based on some kind of fundamental and multiples of it. This also sets a colour scale to crudely indicate if the current market price is Low (DARK GREEN), Typical (BRIGHT YELLOW) or High (DARK ORANGE/BROWN). In my full portfolio I sometime use this colour scale to easily whittle down my list of candidates to sell at toppy prices in order to buy something else I think is cheap, and I use the Low/Typ/High idea to project long term retirement portfolio value without so much influence of current market-wide depression/euphoria.

For BRK this fundamental is Book Value Per Share. For most others it's EPS reported by GoogleFinance. Where EPS is negative or N/A I've estimated some other value such as normalised EPS - using very little effort of analysis!!!

Do your own research etc. and don't simply rely on the spreadsheet to make investment decisions!

Soon I expect to summarise the key figures near the top and the left of the sheet and perhaps make the look-through list filtered/sortable.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on August 17, 2016, 08:14:31 AM
I've made a couple of changes to both spreadsheets.

I've inserted rows 7, 8 and 9 on the spreadsheet.

Row 7 splits out the equity holdings per BRK.B share. It tells you how much one share of BRK.B contains in current Market Price of equity holdings.
(Market Price is about $53.66 as I type this, with effective EPS of $3.05 per B share, P/E = 17.57 or E/P yield of 5.69% from column W). It also values your total holding in your native currency.

Row 8 splits out the operating side of Berkshire Hathaway only (it does not back out cash equivalent holdings, however). It shows the operating earnings excluding dividends (as per the annual report for now, not per the 10Q).
(Market Price is about $94.41 as I type this, with effective EPS of $8.86 per B share, P/E = 10.66 or E/P yield of 9.38% from column W). It also values your total holding in your native currency.

Row 9 is the sum of the two rows above - the total Look-Through BRK.B share, with total look-through EPS in column S.
(Market Price is the same as BRK.B = $148.07 as I type, Look-Through EPS = $11.91, P/E = 12.43 or E/P yield of 8.04%)

You can use this in a few ways to approach valuation, according to your tastes, such as:

• Apply an earnings yield or P/E multiplier to Total Look-Through EPS - see cell S9 then multiply by a fair P/E or divide by a fair earnings yield.
• Back out cash and equivalents per B share then do the above to value the non-cash portion.
• Apply a sum-of-the-parts valuation to both the portfolio's look-through earnings per B share (so you free yourself from it's current market price) and to the operating company's look-through earnings per B share.
• Make a valuation of each significant holding individually and to each division of Berkshire's operating business.
• Value various business units within Berkshire Hathaway separately and combine them. E.G. Insurance, Utilities, Railways, Retail and Consumer, Financial Products, etc. to value the operating portion, then add in the shares.
• Use whatever crude metrics you normally employ to roughly gauge the relative attractiveness of different stocks. For example, my crude Low, Typical, High measure adjusted using columns Y, Z and AA.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on August 17, 2016, 08:43:52 AM
For those who want to play or to enter private information, like your actual BRK holdings, you can copy the "View Only" version of the Google Sheet to a Google Sheet of your own.


I've tested this on someone else's Google Chrome and Google Account and it works fine. Feel free to share your own versions on this thread or to copy them to a new sheet you don't mind sharing publicly.

BTW, if you ask me for permission to edit my "View Only" version of the sheet, I'll allow you Comment access, but not Edit access, so it won't get corrupted.

If you want Edit access in the usual collaborative way, there's now a third version of my sheet to which you can request full access. Find it at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Um4ENkSz4tppynxqKAMVLrUcuNqn2JaVBBRu4CEVvGQ/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Um4ENkSz4tppynxqKAMVLrUcuNqn2JaVBBRu4CEVvGQ/edit?usp=sharing)
To request Edit Access, make sure you're signed into your Google account then click the blue View Only button to request edit access from me.

I've granted edit access for that to the two people who requested it on my View Only version.

Perhaps this version can be one that members of CBF forums can work on together when new financials come out. Whoever wants to can input, say, the Book Value per share, the shares outstanding (find these over to the right on the top rows) and the dividend income received from Berkshire's portfolio so that the right figures flow through. Post here or comment on the Google Sheet to say what you've updated.

Also, various minor holdings have no valid EPS figure so I just took Wild guesses at normalised EPS for the purposes only of the Low, Typical, High crude valuation of each stock. In some cases, a multiple of Book Value of other figure might be a better valuation yardstick for a specific stock, so feel free to edit columns Q to AA on any rows you like.

Do bear in mind that whatever you type there can be seen by anyone on the internet as can the edit history of the spreadsheet!!! Don't put anything proprietary or personally identifiable.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: physdude on August 17, 2016, 09:32:52 AM
Thanks for the useful spreadsheet! Really appreciate your effort.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: arcube on August 17, 2016, 11:18:26 AM
Well done. Thank you for sharing. Much appreciated.
Thanks for the useful spreadsheet! Really appreciate your effort.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on September 01, 2016, 06:11:30 AM
All versions of the look-through spreadsheet are now updated to include the holding in BYD Company Limited which had been omitted from the original version. This holding was purchased by MidAmerican Energy which was since renamed to Berkshire Hathaway Energy.

The version only I can edit (but you can copy it into your own Google Sheet - see above):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit?usp=sharing)

The version anyone on the internet can see and edit (so it could get corrupted, but you can enter your own currency and number of shares):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing)

Restricted editing - for this version you can request Edit Access and I'll grant it. It sends me an email from your Google account:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Um4ENkSz4tppynxqKAMVLrUcuNqn2JaVBBRu4CEVvGQ/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Um4ENkSz4tppynxqKAMVLrUcuNqn2JaVBBRu4CEVvGQ/edit?usp=sharing)

In all case, anyone on the internet can view them so be wary of entering private information. If you want a private copy, copy the sheet to your own private Google Sheet using the instructions in post 3 of this thread at http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/look-through-portfolio-google-sheets-with-live-prices/msg272206/#msg272206 (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/look-through-portfolio-google-sheets-with-live-prices/msg272206/#msg272206)
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on September 16, 2016, 05:40:53 AM
All three versions now updated to include increased holding in Phillips 66 (PSX) as at 15 Sep 2016
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on October 10, 2016, 04:03:30 AM
I noticed an error in converting the Market Values and EPS of foreign holdings like BYD into USD, so the Total Market Value of the Look-Through Holdings was about $4 per B-share too high, and thus the implied market valuation of the operating part of BRK.B was about $4 too low.

I've now corrected this on all versions.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on November 19, 2016, 06:58:02 AM
Hi,

Slightly delayed by a short vacation in the sun, I've updated the Spreadsheets above based on the latest 13-F and updated the Book Value based on the 30th Sep 2016 10-Q (I'd calculated a slightly different value of BVPS myself than Yahoo Finance shows, so I switched to theirs, which differs in about the 4th significant figure).

I'm glad to see from the revision history and changes that a few people have played around with the numbers of shares and native currency in the Publicly editable version at:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing
...so I hope it remains useful to some of you. By copying over my new version and deleting the old one, I've undone the most recent change by a member of the public.

And don't forget there are instructions earlier in this thread to copy the latest sheet to your own Google Drive spreadsheets. If you copy it, use the version only I can edit:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit?usp=sharing

Assumptions made include that the BYD holding remains unchanged since its original report. I assume that as a foreign holding it doesn't get included in the 13-F but is still held.

I note that three airlines have been added to the portfolio - AAL, DAL, UAL
and that two companies seem to have been removed - MEG, SU

I usually make a note of my latest update in the green cell Q6, which now reads:
Latest major change: 2016-11-19. 13-F on 15 Sep 16. Add AAL, DAL, UAL. Remove MEG, SU. BV as at 30 Sep

Various other positions have changed size, such as a reduction in Walmart and various Liberty Media adjustments.

You can compare the previous version of the spreadsheet with the current one as I retained the old version as a separate tab in the Resticted Editing version:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Um4ENkSz4tppynxqKAMVLrUcuNqn2JaVBBRu4CEVvGQ/edit?usp=sharing
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: scorpioncapital on November 19, 2016, 08:31:49 AM
Just wan't to understand something, is the look through earning per share of 38,58,96/share embodied in the investments per share part of the 2 column method so that the difference between this calculation and that one is the implied under or overvaluation of the market value of the investment portfolio?

Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on November 19, 2016, 02:30:18 PM
I don't think I can understand what you're asking as I cannot find 38,58,96/share or a number that looks like it in my spreadsheet or on the class A equivalent values. 38,58,96 per share isn't formatted like a typical number of dollars so I'm not sure what it ought to be.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: scorpioncapital on November 20, 2016, 12:21:10 AM
Sorry, I meant 38, 58, 97 as look through earnings low, base, high cases.

Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on November 20, 2016, 03:14:35 AM
These Low, Typ, High valuations are just a crude estimate that I've baked into my stock-tracking spreadsheets.
In the columns Y, Z, AA I define the multiple used for the Low, Typ and High respectively.
These are multiples of the figure in column V, which is mostly EPS, but occasionally I use an alternative metric such as Book Value Per Share (as I do with BRK in rows 1 and 2).

For the full BRK.B valuation, I use BVPS in column V and set Low to 1.2 (the Buy-Back threshold), Typ to 1.5 and High to 2.0, which I estimate as a typical trading range that might be seen at various times during the course of a few years.

For other companies, I figure that a quality company with stable earnings that are similar to Free Cash Flow might be good value at an earnings yield of 8.5% (P/E = 11.76) which may represent a soft floor to the usual trading range, might typically trade at a P/E of 18 and might be richly valued at the High P/E of 30.

Thus, applying the multiples of 11.76, 18 and 30 to the look-through EPS of the investments per share, we obtain $38, $58 and $97 respectively in cells N7, O7 and P7.

These values are then used to color-code the actual look-through market price of the investments per BRK.B-share which as I type this is shown as $54.6592 in cell D7. This is just below the $58 corresponding to bright yellow, so is very slightly darker and greener than bright yellow.

Incidentally, W7 is the inverse of P/E so it's the Earnings Yield at the current Market Price expressed as a ratio rather than a percentage, currently 0.0591 which could be expressed as 5.91%.

Similarly, the same multiples are applied to the Operating Company earnings of BRK.B (net of dividends) to provide the Low, Typ, High values in cells N8, O8, P8 and these are used to color-code the cell D7 'effective market value of the operation company' which is currently $103.0908 (calculated as the current market price of BRK.B $157.75 minus the look-through market price of the investments per share in cell D7 $54.6592).

Row 9 adds up row 7 (look-through) and row 8 (operating). D9 shows that the market-values of these two add up to the market value of BRK.B. The effective EPS per BRK.B share (operating + look-through) is in cell S9 (and cell V9) at $11.1829. This is multiplied by 11.76, 18 and 30 for the Low, Typ and High estimated valuations/trading range. The effective Earnings Yield as a ratio is in cell W9, currently 0.0709 or 7.09%.

You will note that these valuations differ from the Book Value Per Share valuations on row 4 (or row 5) which come out lower, but these do allow a certain like-for-like valuation method so the degree of over-valuation of under-valuation can crudely be compared to other shares that can be valued on a multiple of earnings basis. This might help to some extent in deciding whether to sell some BRK.B to buy something else that's much more undervalued, for example.

By laying everything out on a per-row basis, I seem to have turned the two-column method into a two-row method.

By changing the valuation metrics for the operating part of BRK.B or the look-through shares, you could come up with a custom valuation of your own choosing.

If you wish to share your own estimate of placing a Low, Typical or High valuation on the operating part of BRK.B, I could implement that in another tab of the spreadsheet. Also, you could add a third element by choosing to value cash per share at a certain multiple (e.g. 0.9, 1.0, 1.1 corresponding to a cash drag discount at 0.9, valuing it as risk-free at 1.0 and applying an optionality premium at 1.1) then apply a different valuation of your choice to the operating company net of cash.

For example, if you have an estimate of IV calculated based on a rate you'd like to plug in, perhaps use that IV with a multiple of 1.0 as the High, use 0.75 for Typical and 0.5 as Low multiple. Typical is a 25% discount to IV and Low is a 50% discount to IV.

Variations of the two-column method seem to be:

1. Use the market value of the look-through shares and add a sensible valuation of the operating company
2. Use a non-market valuation of the look-through shares and add a sensible valuation of the operating company

I hope that the above clarifies how these figures came about and how crude they are - albeit that they're probably more 'consistent and objective' than the fluctuating market price of the portfolio constituents.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: scorpioncapital on November 20, 2016, 10:12:58 AM
Do you compare look through earnings per B-share to Investments per B-share to see what the market is implying for the yields in the 3 cases?
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on November 20, 2016, 02:58:20 PM
Do you compare look through earnings per B-share to Investments per B-share to see what the market is implying for the yields in the 3 cases?

Sure do. See cells W7 W8 W9 for the earnings Yields in question. You just need to shift the decimal point two places to the right to express it as a percentage.

The implied Earnings Yield of the look through portfolio is 5.91% at current prices and reported Earnings, the Earnings being obtained via Google where available including negative contributions from loss makers and zero where an error code is returned.

The implied price if the operating company is $103.0908 with Earnings/Share of $7.9516, and the implied earnings yield in cell W8 is 7.71%.

The total of BRK.B has combined earnings of $11.1829 and current price of $157.75 so Earnings Yield in cell W9 is 7.09%  based on total operating and look through earnings per share.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on January 25, 2017, 09:08:19 AM
Just to mention that LMCK - Liberty Media Group Class C - is no longer showing a price on Google Finance or any other platform, which threw up an error on the look-through market price totals. I think this is a matter of restructuring various classes of share, probably relating to the Formula 1 deal. I'm not inclined to delve into the minutiae now as we'll be getting the 2016Q4 list of investments in a few weeks which will account for such changes, and quite possibly many more significant changes and save a lot of effort.

To get round this I've simply set the LMCK price to a fixed $3.42 and set that line of the speadsheet to RED. This makes of the order of 0.1%, so isn't materially wrong.

After 27 Feb 2017, the new portfolio should soon be available and I'll update it properly.

QUICK LINKS:
The version only I can edit (but you can copy it into your own Google Sheet - see above):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit?usp=sharing)

The version anyone on the internet can see and edit (so it could get corrupted, but you can enter your own currency and number of shares):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing)

Restricted editing - for this version you can request Edit Access and I'll grant it. It sends me an email from your Google account:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Um4ENkSz4tppynxqKAMVLrUcuNqn2JaVBBRu4CEVvGQ/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Um4ENkSz4tppynxqKAMVLrUcuNqn2JaVBBRu4CEVvGQ/edit?usp=sharing)

In all case, anyone on the internet can view them so be wary of entering private information. If you want a private copy, copy the sheet to your own private Google Sheet using the instructions in post 3 of this thread at http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/look-through-portfolio-google-sheets-with-live-prices/msg272206/#msg272206 (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/look-through-portfolio-google-sheets-with-live-prices/msg272206/#msg272206)
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Jurgis on January 25, 2017, 12:29:52 PM
LMCK is FWONK now. And it was never priced anywhere near $3.42.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on January 25, 2017, 02:19:15 PM
Thanks, Jurgis. I've now included FWONK so the sheets work again.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on February 15, 2017, 07:32:12 AM
I hope to update the look-through tomorrow, if I have time, but work intervenes. For now, I've put an extra tab on this version where I've entered up the 13-F data in crude fashion: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit#gid=1273825621 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit#gid=1273825621)

As yet, I haven't fully matched up with ticker symbols and name changes (especially around Liberty Sirius XM and similar names) to determine which holdings appear to have been sold, renamed or reduced.

Some shares show 0, but among these is BYD (China), which we assume is still held, but not reportable to the SEC.

For a summary, various sources are available including this on SeekingAlpha:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4046111-tracking-warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-portfolio-q4-2016-update (http://seekingalpha.com/article/4046111-tracking-warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-portfolio-q4-2016-update)
and this indicates a couple of exits such as Deere and Kinder Morgan, reductions like Walmart and increases such as Apple.

The CNBC portfolio tracker hasn't yet been updated, which I find a handy sortable table to compare & check my own work. http://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/ (http://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/)
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: scorpioncapital on February 16, 2017, 09:04:33 AM
Just looking at the share prices of some banks and IBM (although BAC are held as warrants), as well as profits in industrials, I have a feeling Q4 could be an incredibly big quarter. If mark to market gains flow through the income statement it could even be a $10 billion quarter.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on February 24, 2017, 09:41:01 AM
The 13-F is here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095012317002417/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095012317002417/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml)

However, although relatively immaterial, I have a few differences compared to, say, the CNBC Portfolio tracker: http://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/ (http://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/).

Foreign holdings never shown on the 13-F:

I seem to be OK with US holdings that have been sold:

Differences to CNBC Portfolio tracker & name-changes/ticker-changes:

If anyone can advise on any of these points, I'd be grateful, and can probably update the look-through sheet in a short while.

One version of my sheet has a second tab where I've entered the 13-F details as best I can:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit#gid=2050477249 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit#gid=2050477249)
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: scorpioncapital on February 24, 2017, 09:42:47 AM
I see both tickers traded today -
NASDAQ:LSXMA
NASDAQ:LSXMK

Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on May 17, 2017, 07:35:56 AM
All the version of the spreadsheet are up-to-date with the latest figures and I've got my head around all the Liberties and their tickers. I've also made some substantial changes to how I handle odd cases, like Sanofi and Bank of America Warrants.

• The one only I can edit:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit?usp=sharing)
• The one only approved users can edit (click the Share tab to request permission from me):
https://drive.google.com/open?id=10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s (https://drive.google.com/open?id=10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s)
• The one anyone on the internet can edit without signing in:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing)

Again, please remember that if you edit the public versions, your data can be seen by anyone on the internet (including the use of File/See Revision History to revive previous versions), so keep your privacy in mind.

If you wish to copy both sheets to your own private Google Sheet, start with the 13-F worksheet tab and hit Copy to... from the menu on the tab, then rename it to remove the added words "Copy of ", the copy the Look-Through worksheet which picks up data from the 13-F worksheet, hence the need to rename it to match the name used in each such formula). Here's the full procedure to copy it:


While going through the 13-F compared to the previous one I noticed a couple of things:
• IBM - was listed in various ownership codes on the previous 13-F but is now all under code 4,11 on a single line
• A couple of other holdings under various codes seem to have moved around including Wells Fargo (WFC).
Could these changes indicate tax-efficient selling and/or buying in certain divisions of Berkshire?

Some items are not in the 13-F but I've made my own entries on my 13-F worksheet in gray background, and I'll summarise them as I've changed how I handle them:

1. BYD (China), as before is included on the assumption it is still held at the same position size.

2. Sanofi ADR. The 2016 Annual Report p19 (Chairman's Letter) mentions the total holdings including both ADR (ticker SNW) and direct shares traded on Paris Euronext. The latter are not reportable on 13-F, but I've put the equivalent number of ADRs (2 ADRs = 1 share of SNY) on the assumption they're still held. I sanity-checked this and the holding is about 1.76% of the market cap, which is about the 1.7% shown in the AR.

3. Bank of America warrants being included in effect as if it were BAC exposure.

Berkshire holds preferred stock with 700 million warrants to purchase BAC common stock at $7.14 until mid 2021.

I'm including these in the look-through effective exposure by using ticker BAC but adjusting the number of shares as if this was a cashless exercise at the current price.

e.g. at $23.99 for BAC, the warrant is worth $23.99 - $7.14 = $16.85
700 million of these amount to $11.795 billion.

That will buy 491,663,193 shares of BAC, so that's the number of shares I put in the look-through portfolio.

In fact, I run this calculation to adjust the effective number of BAC shares ‘live’ to give some sort of indication of the effective exposure and total value of the warrant.

The formula for the effective number of BAC shares I've used is:
No of shares = 700 million x (BACprice - $7.14) / BACprice

Thus, it reflects the current value of the warrants reasonably well, and gives at least some indication of the exposure to BAC - so if you held BAC yourself, you could work out the additional effective exposure via BRK approximately, although you'll be aware that it will increase in 2021 unless the warrants expire worthless.

In reality Berkshire will exchange $5 billion of cash from the operating company to exercise the warrants before they expire, but this will reduce the cash held and reduce the value of the operating component, which I’ve called BH.Own on line 8 of the spreadsheet, by $5 billion while the portfolio BH.Portf will increase in value.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Jurgis on May 17, 2017, 08:52:43 AM
• The one only approved users can edit (click the Share tab to request permission from me):
https://drive.google.com/open?id=10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s (https://drive.google.com/open?id=10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s)
• The one anyone on the internet can edit without signing in:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing)

Hey,

Thanks for your work.
I think you messed up "anyone can edit" and "approved users can edit" URLs. Now they both point to the same sheet that requires approval. Looking at your previous posts, this was the URL for "anyone can edit", but no longer...
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on May 17, 2017, 09:47:02 AM
This is now the one anyone can edit (with corrected editing rights):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing)

And this is the one people with permission can edit:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Um4ENkSz4tppynxqKAMVLrUcuNqn2JaVBBRu4CEVvGQ/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Um4ENkSz4tppynxqKAMVLrUcuNqn2JaVBBRu4CEVvGQ/edit?usp=sharing)

Sorry for the mistake, and thanks, Jurgis for pointing it out.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on May 18, 2017, 06:52:38 AM
I've made a small adjustment to all three sheets.

I've made sure to use live EPS data from GoogleFinance for all shares, but then three showed N/A errors - LBTYK, LILAK, NASDAQ:LILA (new ticker required for LILA to play nice with Google Finance functions) because they don't have EPS data.

I've hard-coded an alternative very rough valuation metric for all three and shaded the cells in columns K:M and Q:AA pink to indicate this. These three stocks don't contribute to the look-through EPS figure, but they're very small holdings anyway (0.16% of portfolio by market value at present) so I'm not concerned.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on June 26, 2017, 09:27:04 AM
There are a few new things to incorporate into the Look-Through Spreadsheet. They mostly fairly immaterial, but I'd still like to get them roughly right.

1. There's the 8-K from STOR June 23rd showing NICO's investment of 18,621,674 shares of the Company’s common stock, which I'll add to the 13-F LATEST worksheet as if it were on the last 13-F.
http://ir.storecapital.com/Cache/389226355.pdf?IID=4553160&FID=389226355&O=3&OSID=9 (http://ir.storecapital.com/Cache/389226355.pdf?IID=4553160&FID=389226355&O=3&OSID=9)

2. There are two SEC Form 4's from BRK on May 25th regarding various Liberty stock purchases.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315090/000120919117035615/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315090/000120919117035614/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
In the first, regarding LSXMK, I think I should use 23,293,786 and ignore the 7,153,027 in various pension plans for which Berkshire and its subsidiaries have no beneficial ownership.
In the second, regarding LSXMA, I think I should use 10,174,586 (a tiny reduction compared to the last 13-F) and ignore 4,308,117 held in pension plans with no beneficial ownership.

The full number of shares including non-beneficial pension plan shares has been recorded (possibly in error) on CNBC's Portfolio Tracker http://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/ . If the pensions are defined benefit types, excess returns may accrue to BRK over time, but if they're money purchase types, the returns will accrue to the benefit of the employee beneficiaries of the pension. I'll assume the latter.

3. Speaking of the CNBC Portfolio Tracker, they made an estimate of the number of IBM shares held from Buffett's interview around the time of the Annual Meeting where he said about 30% had been sold, bringing their estimated share count to 56,862,612 versus the 13-F's 64,561,955. I haven't made any such adjustment, and its effect is far more material than the matters above, due to the size of the position (0.64% difference in total portfolio value).

While I'm at it, CNBC's doesn't account for the BAC Warrants or the Sanofi or BYD foreign holdings (the latter of which might actually be from the Hong Kong listing, rather than the Shanghai listing I used, although this is probably immaterial). And speaking of foreign holdings...

4. Berkshire now owns or will soon own 40,000,000 shares in Canadian Home Capital (HCG.CA) subject to shareholder approval of the private placement of 24,000,000 shares over and above the 16,000,000 common shares purchases, so I'm including these in the same way as BYD, for example.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/22/home-capital-to-get-1-point-5-billion-loan-from-berkshire-hathaway.html


Nos 1,2 and 4, I will probably include as mentioned above.
No 3 is one I will leave alone until we get the next 13-F in July/August and find out how much IBM is still being held. The Look-Through Portfolio is always going to be out of date, so user beware!
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: LongTermView on September 23, 2017, 12:14:50 PM
Dynamic,

Thanks for putting this together!

Cell S7 shows $4.16 L-Thr EPS holdings per class B share through June 30th.

Cell AH4 shows $1.48 dividends per class B share last fiscal year.

Does that mean the retained earnings from stock holdings are about 2.8 times [$4.16/$1.48] more than the reported dividend earnings?

Thanks!
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on September 25, 2017, 10:30:54 PM
I don't have computer access until tomorrow and will not look into this on my smartphone in detail, but from my memory, I believe I entered the dividends received by BRK from its shareholdings in the last full year (from the Annual Report) so that I could lower the Earnings of BRK-operating-Company to exclude equity dividends and not double-count that form of income and only count income from operating activities and non equity investments such as treasury bills.

It would then be the case that these dividends would simply be part of the look through Earnings (meaning Earnings of the investee companies, whether distributed or not) which ought over time to accrue to Berkshire in terms of Total Return, meaning dividends plus capital appreciation.

I'll check your question again and may reply in my next post.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on September 25, 2017, 11:15:59 PM
Dynamic,

Thanks for putting this together!

Cell S7 shows $4.16 L-Thr EPS holdings per class B share through June 30th.

Cell AH4 shows $1.48 dividends per class B share last fiscal year.

Does that mean the retained earnings from stock holdings are about 2.8 times [$4.16/$1.48] more than the reported dividend earnings?

Thanks!

Thanks for your comments, LongTermView

The Earnings of the investee companies includes anything they distribute as dividends.

The retained earnings would be = earnings - dividends - stock buybacks

If we can ignore the buybacks we have a ratio of
(4.16 - 1.48)/1.48
= 2.68 / 1.48
= 1.81

Expanding the top line you can write it as:
(4.16/1.48) - (1.48/1.48)
which simplifies to
(4.16/1.48) - 1
so my answer is always 1 less than your formula.

The original ratio you showed was Total Earnings / Dividends.

So you can say that for every $1.00 of investee dividends received at Berkshire Hathaway in 2016 there's about an additional $1.81 retained which should eventually accrue to Berkshire as a combination of capital appreciation and increased future dividends.

This means that for each $2.81 of total investee earnings, only $1.00 was received as dividends and reached Berkshire's GAAP earnings bottom line in 2016, while the remaining $1.81 was retained by the investees to fund future growth or buybacks which should increase the value of Berkshire's shareholding over the long term.

If you want to get more accurate you could look up the trailing 12 month dividends of the investees and apportion them to the look through number of shares held so that the timings are roughly within the same quarter instead of half a year out.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: LongTermView on September 26, 2017, 08:47:03 AM
Dynamic,

I appreciate you replying with these details.

This part is key:
Quote
So you can say that for every $1.00 of investee dividends received at Berkshire Hathaway in 2016 there's about an additional $1.81 retained which should eventually accrue to Berkshire as a combination of capital appreciation and increased future dividends.

Of course we're talking about dividends from stocks like KO (as opposed to subsidiaries like BNSF) and we're not including things like interest on treasury bills. Where did you get the total of these KO type dividends on the 2016 annual report?

Thanks Again.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on September 27, 2017, 02:57:35 PM
I looked at the Annual Report p84 and section 'Insurance—Investment Income' then used the figure for Dividends received which I sanity checked by calculating a yield against the equity portfolio valuation that seemed reasonable. That number goes in the first part of the formula in cell AH3 where the formula divides it by equivalent number of shares of BRK.A in circulation which is in cell AC6.

Might be worth me looking up the dividends paid by the investees representing 85-90% of the weighted portfolio value to verify it's about right or even the whole lot. It's a shame GoogleFinance functions don't include dividends.

I realise I had the 2015 figure originally and still needed to lower it just a fraction to match 2016's and should do so every February when going through all the blue cells. The 2016 figure is 3,552 in millions of dollars and had been 3,662 in 2015 so I was able to search the 2016ar.pdf for exactly that string of characters to find the number for the next year.

I'm crazy busy at work after a week off but hope to update the look through sheets soon with this figure.

There will be discrepancies if I include the BAC holding in the EPS but not the dividends as it had been warrants and preference shares previously. I haven't worked out how significant they would be, though these calculations aren't the main purpose of the spreadsheet.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: LongTermView on September 27, 2017, 08:33:32 PM
Got it, thanks again.

So if we make some rough estimates/assumptions for 2016 then we can say the GAAP income of $3,552 million on page 84 is around $9,946 million in economic terms for a difference of about $6,394 million, right?
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: SlowAppreciation on November 08, 2017, 07:22:24 AM
Here's v1 of the Berkshire look-through earnings portfolio: http://minesafetydisclosures.com/individual-investor-portfolio

I will be doing a lot more to improve this over the coming months, but just wanted to share the progress so far for initial feedback.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: CassiusKing1 on November 08, 2017, 08:46:50 AM
Thanks for your continued work and sharing of this!
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on November 08, 2017, 08:54:30 AM
Very impressive work, SlowAppreciation!
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: DW on November 08, 2017, 12:01:36 PM
Completely agree; very impressive!

Very impressive work, SlowAppreciation!
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: SlowAppreciation on November 08, 2017, 01:33:22 PM
Thanks everyone. I'm taking suggestions/feedback too, so if there's anything additional you'd like to see, please let me know and I can see if it can be included.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on November 21, 2017, 03:48:21 AM
Got it, thanks again.

So if we make some rough estimates/assumptions for 2016 then we can say the GAAP income of $3,552 million on page 84 is around $9,946 million in economic terms for a difference of about $6,394 million, right?

Just had a chance to look your figures over, LongTermView. I make it roughly $9,520 million of economic income from the investments -  a difference of roughly $5,970 million over the GAAP income. It would probably be better to judge in February when the Annual Report comes out, then the ratio (currently 2.82) will be nearer to matching that based on the look-through earnings of the portfolio held for the year included in the Annual Report, also taking account of adjusted holdings. It would also be a bit out if massive new positions were purchased for cash, say, half way through the year, as only half a year's dividends would be received, while a full year's look-through earnings would be counted.

Maybe one day I'll get round to using the YahooFinance import functions so I can also obtain dividend info that's missing from the GoogleFinance functions. This thread will probably help me do so: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/google-spreadsheet-tips-and-tricks/

Before I do that I hope to get time to include the latest 13-F in my spreadsheets.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on November 28, 2017, 09:46:30 AM
The latest 13-F is now included in all three spreadsheets.

You can enter your currency and number of shares in the blue cells near the top-left of the first Worksheet tab.

I've also added a new tab to each spreadsheet called Look-Through Summary - which has a red stripe below the tab name.

This is a somewhat simplified view of the Look-Through portfolio. Rather than re-calculate, it just grabs most of the info from the main sheet, so don't go entering your holdings on this sheet and expect it to work. It adds on the right hand side a couple of columns showing the Look Through earnings of your holding of BRK and showing each constituent stock's percentage of these earnings (just as column J show's its percentage of the BRK portfolio at current prices)

I still include WABCO for now even though the position has now been sold and thus contains 0 shares.

This version is the one nobody but I can edit. It contains instructions for copying them to your own private spreadsheet so you can edit to your heart's content:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit#gid=292668837 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit#gid=292668837)


This version is editable by anyone, but be aware that anyone can see your edit history, so if you enter private information there, it's potentially disclosed to the whole internet! It could also get corrupted by anyone!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing)


There's another version that you may request permission to edit, here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Um4ENkSz4tppynxqKAMVLrUcuNqn2JaVBBRu4CEVvGQ/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Um4ENkSz4tppynxqKAMVLrUcuNqn2JaVBBRu4CEVvGQ/edit?usp=sharing)


If you'd like a simplified overview of the BRK portfolio, I can recommend http://minesafetydisclosures.com/individual-investor-portfolio (http://minesafetydisclosures.com/individual-investor-portfolio) and for CNBC's Look Through, https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/ (https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/)
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on February 15, 2018, 09:45:50 AM
The latest 13-F as of 31st Dec 2017 is now included in all three spreadsheets. There are some doubts about figures assumed but not reportable in the 13-F (see below), but these might be resolved on 23rd Feb when the Annual Report comes out.

If you select a Google Sheets workbook you can edit (or copy it to a private Google Sheet workbook of your own using the instructions on my non-editable version) you can enter your currency and number of shares in the blue cells near the top-left of the first Worksheet tab and you can also set the currency of your choice.

By default, however, I've set the number of shares to represent one-millionth of all those outstanding, amounting to 2467.18 BRK.B equivalent shares at present and the currency to USD.

When cell C5 contains that number, 2467.18, you can read off the equivalent number of shares in each holding as millions of shares held by Berkshire Hathaway as a whole, and the values of those holdings as if they were in millions of US dollars (or whatever currency is set in cell B2). Cell I6 therefore would also represent Berkshire's Market Cap in millions.

If you prefer a simpler layout, click on the tab with the red stripe below its name, "Look-Through Summary". Columns A-J have been distilled down to basic info you might want (less useful columns such as my very rough Low End Valuation have been 'hidden from view' to simplify matters a little). However, if you want to change currency or number of shares you must enter these on the first sheet, entitled "Look-Through BRK earnings and holdings" (as the red text in cell A1 warns you)

I have removed WABCO as it was sold entirely in 2017Q3. Teva is now included.

This version is the one nobody but I can edit. It contains instructions for copying them to your own private spreadsheet so you can edit it to your heart's content in full privacy:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit#gid=292668837 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit#gid=292668837)

This version is editable by anyone, but be aware that anyone can see your edit history, so if you enter private information there, it's potentially disclosed to the whole internet! It could also get corrupted by anyone!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing)

There's another version that you may request permission from me to edit, here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Um4ENkSz4tppynxqKAMVLrUcuNqn2JaVBBRu4CEVvGQ/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Um4ENkSz4tppynxqKAMVLrUcuNqn2JaVBBRu4CEVvGQ/edit?usp=sharing)

If you'd like a simplified overview of the BRK portfolio, I can recommend http://minesafetydisclosures.com/individual-investor-portfolio (http://minesafetydisclosures.com/individual-investor-portfolio) and for CNBC's Look Through, https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/ (https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/)

Discussion of discrepancies
The 13-F numbers and the totals agree with one posted on Seeking Alpha, so I'm pretty happy we both entered the information just fine. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4147016-tracking-warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-portfolio-q4-2017-update (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4147016-tracking-warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-portfolio-q4-2017-update)

The rocketfinancial version of BRK's portfolio seems to have additional stock in US Bancorp, which they seem to have taken from the 13-G filing. I think something odd is going on there as the 13-F is made up to the same date 31st Dec 2017. I love the way they present it (and the speed it was updated yesterday), and I'm sending them a support email to query it. http://www.rocketfinancial.com/Holdings.aspx?fID=1058 (http://www.rocketfinancial.com/Holdings.aspx?fID=1058)
They might be correct to rely on the 13-G and the rest of us wrong. I'm not sure. Could the difference be amounts held in pension funds etc, not attributable to shareholders?

Phillips 66 (PSX) shows at 45,689,892 on CNBC. The rest of us have 80,689,892, so I think they're wrong there, https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/ (https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/) meaning they're about $3bn out. The rest matches just fine. I've just contacted them to let them know.

I only update cell AH3 when the annual report tells us the dividends received. This avoids double-counting that portion of look-through earnings that was already reported in GAAP earnings. At the moment this is a year out of date while I wait for the Annual Report.

The Annual Report is usually the only hint to non-US holdings such as BYD, Sanofi (SNW) on Euronext (which I enter as an equivalent number of Sanofi ADRs (SNY)), Società Cattolica di Assicurazione - Società Cooperativa and Home Capital Group (CANADA) - you'll note that these are highlighted differently on the sheets including 13-F LATEST.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: globalfinancepartners on February 15, 2018, 09:51:21 AM
The difference in USB, AAPL, etc, is probably in New England Asset management, under general re on Edgar- but i’m Away from the office and can’t check if that’s your issue at the moment
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: globalfinancepartners on February 15, 2018, 01:51:27 PM
Yeah - I had a chance to look at your sheet and it looks like you are short the following share amounts, which are also owned by Berkshire but reported separately through New England Asset Management:

ticker, number of additional shares not included in BRK's 13F:
AAPL, 4,217,000
BAC, 21,000,000
DEO, 227,750
GS, 431,063
USG, 4,385,964
USB, 17,386,443
VRSK, 2,954,050
WFC, 24,312,200


It makes sense if you remember that BRK got 700 million BAC shares and hasn't sold any.  You are showing 679 million in your sheet.

Here is the most recent New England Asset Management filing - all the stocks with "Other Manager 01 02" are Berkshire's

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1004244/000108514618000878/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml

Quote
Phillips 66 (PSX) shows at 45,689,892 on CNBC. The rest of us have 80,689,892, so I think they're wrong there, https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/ meaning they're about $3bn out. The rest matches just fine. I've just contacted them to let them know.

They aren't wrong.  They are reflecting the big sale that Berkshire just announced:
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/feb1418.pdf




The difference in USB, AAPL, etc, is probably in New England Asset management, under general re on Edgar- but i’m Away from the office and can’t check if that’s your issue at the moment
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on February 15, 2018, 03:04:35 PM
Thanks, I've just seen the SEC filing come through on the PSX. I'll update my sheets when I'm on the computer to include the extra stocks via New England that you mention. Probably tomorrow.

If these are beneficially owned by BRK they belong in a Look Through analysis I guess. Does anyone disagree with this plan or the belief that they are to shareholders' benefit?

I'll probably include a separate New England 13F sheet and Berkshire 13F then combine those into aggregate holdings.

Thanks again for the clarifications.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on February 16, 2018, 05:37:48 AM
OK, I've updated all three versions of the Spreadsheet.

These now include more stock holdings than most BRK portfolio summaries you'll find online:

1. Actual holdings reported in the Berkshire Hathaway Inc 13-F filing at the end of the most recent quarter.
2. Actual holdings belonging to Berkshire in the New England Asset Management Inc 13-F filing (Owner Code "01 02" in Column 7 only) - thank you to globalfinancepartners for steering me here.
3. Assumed holdings of non US securities that are not reportable to SEC but are mentioned in the Annual Report and presumed still to be held unless we hear otherwise.
4. Plus or (minus) acquisitions or (disposals) of securities announced since the last 13-F quarter. This quarter that's the 35,000,000 PSX shares bought back by PSX on 13th Feb 2018 to keep share count below 10% for regulatory reasons.

I may in future cease to maintain the editable version where people can request access soon. It seems sensible just to have two in future:
I believe I cannot just 'Make a Copy' and retain the existing URL I've published, so my copying process is more long-winded, hence the reduction to 2 versions.

The privately editable one (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/edit#gid=292668837) is as I edited it. It's now very simple to create a Copy for your own private use by pulling down the File... menu and selecting Make A Copy... which will create a Copy of the whole workbook in your own Google Drive, where you will have Read/Write access.

The publicly editable version (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing) is definitely not private - so don't post private or confidential information on it even for a moment as even the Revision History is public. It may also get corrupted by anyone else on the internet, so it's less likely to be reliable than a copy of mine unless someone only fixes errors I've made!

As I said above, I will only update cell AH3 when the annual report tells us the dividends received. This avoids double-counting that portion of look-through earnings that was already reported in GAAP earnings. At the moment this is a year out of date while I wait for the Annual Report. I'm not 100% sure whether dividends received on the New England Asset Management holdings show up in Berkshire's GAAP Earnings, but I suspect they would - it makes accounting sense. If not, it may create a minor error in the operating company earnings adjusted to exclude dividends received to avoid this double-counting.

The Annual Report is usually the only hint to non-US holdings such as BYD, Sanofi (SNW) on Euronext (which I enter as an equivalent number of Sanofi ADRs (SNY)), Società Cattolica di Assicurazione - Società Cooperativa and Home Capital Group (CANADA) - you'll note that these are now included in a separate column in the tab 'COMBINED HOLDINGS' where I also included as a negative figure the sale of 35 million PSX shares announced since 31st Dec 2017, an adjustment that will need to be removed once the 2018q1 13-F filing is published in mid May 2018.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: globalfinancepartners on February 27, 2018, 05:40:55 AM
Just to update on this - the primary Berkshire 13F contains some shares held by pension funds.  The New England Asset Management listings are not the holdings of the pension funds, but some number of shares on BRK's 13F linked below are held by pension funds.

( https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095012318002390/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml )

Combining all Apple shares together form both 13Fs (as of 12/31/2017) gives a total of 169.55 million AAPL shares, where Berkshire's annual report shows 166.713209 million AAPL shares (which excludes pension fund holdings).  We know that Todd and Ted manage assets for the pension funds of the various subsidiaries, so the difference could be the shares 'owned' by Todd and/or Ted's accounts.

So it makes it difficult to get a 100% accurate spreadsheet going for Berkshire's look through holdings / real time book value.  But roughly right is good enough for analyzing BRK.  Thanks Dynamic, for sharing your work
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on February 27, 2018, 05:59:56 AM
Hi @globalfinancepartners. This is what is so great about CoBF - everyone noticing little improvements in accuracy.

A friend and I noticed the differences between the holdings attributable to shareholders and the 13-F at the weekend and I have already adjusted the top holdings (which are the most material) to the exact number of shares shown in the AR on a private Google Sheet that uses the Look Through earnings. There may be other holdings below the level of the top 15 or so that are over-reported. It might be possible to dig through the 13-G forms to ascertain which belong to pension funds (and sanity-check against known examples such as Apple)

I'm snowed under with work today but just realised I can change it very quickly as I put in an adjustment for Pension Funds in my Combined Holdings sheet (the one that combines the BRK 13-F, the NEAM 13-F and the non-US holdings), so I have done so on all three versions of the sheet.

Contrary to the Title, the column for 'Assumed non-US holdings' also now includes these adjustments for the pension fund holdings, which can hopefully be updated every February when the 10-K is released. I imagine we cannot expect more because the 13-F's purpose is in disclosing how much voting power is controlled by a person or entity, not for portfolio tracking.

I'm assuming that no mention of Sanofi in the AR means no change in their Euronext holdings. BYD was in the top holdings, confirming the number I've been using.

Incidentally the Combined Holdings sheet does include links, where applicable, to the news release or other source of information for the 'Assumed non-US holdings' in the rightmost column.

The PSX sale on 13th February 2018 to get below 10% is also included as an adjustment, but I'll need to remove that for next quarter's 13-F.

Here are the links to the two main versions of the Look-Through Google Sheet:
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on May 16, 2018, 05:05:33 PM
I'm just finishing up analysing the 13-F filings as of 31st March 2018 (filed 15th May 2018)for Berkshire Hathaway and will soon modify the Look Through Portfolio Google Sheets to include this.

As I've said before, 13-F is meant to disclose control/voting interest to the SEC, not to report economic interest in the companies. SC 13G and 13D filings are similarly about voting and dispositive power, not economic interest, but help reveal pension fund holdings.

My version differs deliberately from most of those you'll see on the web, as I am interested in approximately understanding the look-through economic interest we as Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have in the companies whose shares it owns.

Thanks to the valuable help of other forum members since about the end of 2017 my analysis includes holdings reported on the New England Asset Management 13-F filing where the OTHER OWNER is shown as "01 02" (meaning Berkshire).

This makes a significant adjustment in a few of the positions.

I have also used information I have gleaned from the Berkshire 10-K Annual Report and SC 13D or 13D/A or SC 13G or 13G/A filings (e.g. Berkshire's holding in Davita) to adjust for holdings whose economic benefit is attributable to pension funds for employees of Berkshire subsidiaries (in Davita's case, this was over half the holding controlled by Berkshire, for American Airlines, close to 40%). I usually link to these next to the adjustments so you can verify and make any queries on the forum.

R Ted Weschler has some apparent personal and shared holdings listed among the Liberty Sirius XM stocks which I think I didn't need to adjust for, but I might review this with some care shortly.

It will not be completely accurate as Berkshire only has to file stocks traded in the USA to the SEC in this way. I have made some adjustments for declared foreign holdings to the best of my knowledge, usually based on declarations of significant holdings in the Annual Report. Some of these are based on news reports of Berkshire investments and may be only approximately correct regarding holding sizes. Also some of the holdings of pension funds within Berkshire may not be adjusted for.

I have sanity-checked the assumed Apple holding against the 10Q, and it seems to match:
Used -2,837,753 adjustment at year-end to match page 9 of 2017 Annual Report figures (to exclude pension scheme assets). At 31/03/18 AAPL closing price was $167.78. Calculated market value using my adjusted figure was $40,676,730,846, which matches the $40.7 billion (rounded to $0.1bn) mentioned on p11 of 2018Q1 10Q, so I will not assume any change in pension scheme holdings unless I find them disclosed in SC 13G or G/A filings - I gone back to about 31 Dec 2015 with those filings.

A few comments about the new interpretation or quarterly changes to holdings (in ticker symbol order):

The holdings reported are those attributable to shareholders, not the total holdings controlled by Berkshire which may include pension fund holdings. The adjustment mentioned may be larger than the shareholders' holding (e.g. DVA)

AAL - holding unchanged at 25,258,000 but newly adjusted by -20,742,000 for pension fund holdings
AAPL - 242,440,880 for shareholders, 75,727,671 added (+46.2%) already adjusted for pension holdings
AXTA - unchanged 20,000,000 shares but newly adj for pension fund holdings
BK - 54,680,199 for shareholders, 1,372,665 added (+2.3%) assuming unchanged pension holdings
CHTR - 6,522,536 for shareholders, -266,518 reduce (-3.1%)
DAL - 53,599,357 add 488,962 (+0.9%)
DVA - 18,513,482 unchanged but -20,052,088 pension adjustment newly noted
IBM - eliminated -2,048,045 (-100.0%)
LBTYA - 17,906,408 reduce -2,274,489 (-11.3%) possibly to stay <10% of class
LILA - 1,625,185 unchanged but -1,089,669 pension adjustment is newly noted
LSXMA - 10,552,243 unchanged but -4,308,117 pension adjustment newly noted - R Ted Weschler's private holdings noted in form SC 13G but not 13-F, I think, so no adjustment needed
LSXMK - 23,942,958 unchanged but -7,148,027 pension adjustment newly noted - R Ted Weschler's private holdings noted in form SC 13G but not 13-F, I think, so no adjustment needed
MON - 18,970,134 add 7,261,387 (+62.0%)
PSX - 39,587,892 reduce -35,000,000 (-43.4%), assuming still -6,102,000 pension holdings adjustment
SNY - 44,134,997 assuming no sale of Euronext stock (non-reportable)   reduce -177,512 (-4.6%)
UAL - 26,114,584 reduce -505,600 (-1.8%), assuming -1,591,379 adjustment for pension holdings unchanged
VRSK - 3,238,828 reduce -1,278,656 (-81.8%) - N.B, majority held by New England Asset Management
VRSN - unchanged at 7,905,481 but noted -5,047,264 pension holdings
WFC - 480,825,444 reduce -1,719,024 (-0.4%) probably to stay <10% avoiding bank holding co status
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on June 11, 2018, 09:49:28 AM
I've just updated the sheets with all the changes mentioned above.

I also note that it's now very easy to make your own copy of my spreadsheet - just use the File/Make a copy... command in Google Sheet, so I changed the instructions sheet - now much simpler!

There was a $128.00 per share cash takeover of Monsanto (MON) by Bayer on 7th June, closing out this presumed merger arbitrage position, worth almost $1 per BRK.B share in total. I've assumed close to $0.09 per BRK.B share after tax profit over the 6-9 months the position has been held.

I have hard-coded MON (Monsanto) to $125.56 market price. This reflects the estimated cash left after an estimated average purchase price of $116.38, and $11.72 USD pre-tax gain per share. Tax at 21% ~= $2.44/sh. Approx 7.9% after tax gain estimated in 6-9 months. In practice Berkshire may well have bought more MON stock this quarter too and the gain could have been a little more or a little less, but better to be roughly right etc.

I've also hard-coded the EPS for MON to essentially zero (I actually set it to 1e-18 USD to avoid #DIV/0 errors, which is essentially zero) as this position is mainly cash now, and will add to the cash balance at the end of this quarter, when the 13-F will be updated (in mid August).

Within 6 months, the USG deal for $44 per share acquisition by Knauf will close (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-11/buffett-to-exit-usg-investment-as-7-billion-knauf-deal-accepted), too, but for now I'll leave it on the spreadsheet. That deal will be $0.50 per share as a special dividend plus $43.50 per share in cash. For now, I expect the stock price to track an estimated time-value discount to the takeover price plus dividend, remaining close to $43-44 per share.

The spreadsheet I'd advise you to Make a copy of for your own use is:
• Berkshire Hathaway Look Through Earnings & Holdings (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/)

The spreadsheet that is publicly editable by anyone (but anyone can see any edits you make, the edit history, or corrupt the spreadsheet) is:
• Berkshire Look through earnings - Public editing allowed (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing)

Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on July 03, 2018, 06:47:23 AM
I believe (please correct me if I'm wrong) that the Berkshire interest in Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) is consolidated in Berkshire's earnings statement, so it would be double-counting to include its Look-Through earnings of almost $0.44 per year per Berkshire Class B share, in the Look-Through Portfolio EPS calculations (in column AH) as they're already included in Berkshire's GAAP EPS and Operating earnings (those being earnings before the mark-to-market adjustments that now must be carried into the income statement, but which Berkshire presents alongside the new GAAP figure for consistency and comparison with past performance).

I also presume that the mark-to-market 'earnings' from changes in the stock portfolio market value would specifically exclude the market-value change of KHC, this being considered a consolidated subsidiary entity.

You can find and copy the Google Sheets as before:
The spreadsheet I'd advise you to Make a copy of for your own use is:
• Berkshire Hathaway Look Through Earnings & Holdings (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/)

The spreadsheet that is publicly editable by anyone (but anyone can see any edits you make, the edit history, or corrupt the spreadsheet) is:
• Berkshire Look through earnings - Public editing allowed (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing)

Caution: Note that EPS figures for portfolio components taken from Google Finance may include historic figures over the most recently filed 4 quarters with a mixture of US tax-rates assumed (e.g. old 35% federal rate and new 21% federal rate), so EPS shown may be materially below EPS by end of 2018.

The results include, at about 09:00 EDT on 3rd July:
Market Value of Look-Through Portfolio except KHC = $72.31 per BRK.B share.
EPS of Look-Through Portfolio = $3.7860 per BRK.B share (excluding KHC, which earned $0.4379 per BRK.B)
P/E ratio of portfolio = 72.31/3.7860 = 19.1. Earnings yield = 5.2%

Market Value of remainder of BRK.B (including cash) = $115.52 per BRK.B share (at 2nd July 2018 closing price of $187.83)
EPS less portfolio dividends for Operating part of Berkshire = $3.2229 per BRK.B share
Look-Through P/E ratio of Operating part = 115.52/3.2229 = 35.8. Earnings yield = 2.8%

From 2018Q1 10-Q p6:
 Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash at end of first quarter = $58,374mn
Therefore Cash per class B share = $58,374mn/2,467.6mn = $23.66 per BRK.B

Market Value of Operating part of BRK.B less cash per share = $91.86
P/E ratio of same = 28.5. Earnings yield of same = 3.5%

Total Look Through Earnings Per Share of BRK.B = $7.0089 per BRK.B share
Look-Through P/E ratio = $187.83 / $7.0089 = 26.8. Earnings yield = 3.7%
Look-Through P/E net of cash* = $164.17 / $7.0089 = 23.4. Earnings yield = 4.3%.

*This assumes cash is taken at face value. If cash is used to fund undervalued acquisitions or purchase undervalued stock, it may have higher ultimate value (optionality premium). If you are comparing Berkshire to alternative investments without 'cash drag' you might wish to discount its value.

There's also some additional cash included in the look-through sheet, such as the estimated after-tax proceeds of the Monsanto acquisition by Bayer, which will show up in the Q2 financials released in early August 2018. The USG acquisition will eventually add to the cash position also. Some of this, however, might have been invested in the mean time, for which we'll await the 13-F filings later in August.

I'd anticipate the Look-Through EPS and Book Value Per Share are both likely to compound at around 10% cagr (8-12% range) in the long term (6-9% above inflation) regardless of the cash build up at this point in the cycle, but your mileage may vary.


Miscellaneous Adjustments to the Spreadsheet - feel free to ignore these
I've altered a few of the columns around columns AE and AF.

Column AE is now for EPS including KHC, and AF is now the EPS excluding KHC column.

The green shaded columns AH and AI are those I consider 'correct' for calculating look-through earnings as they exclude KHC. The sheet carries through the totals of these columns at the foot of the page into the Look Through Market Value (copied to cell D7) and the Look Through EPS of the portfolio in cell S7. The Total EPS in S9 is the sum of this figure plus the operating earnings of Berkshire (including its share of KHC), less the dividends received from the stock portfolio (these dividends, shown in the financial statements should not include dividends from KHC as these are considered distributions from a consolidated subsidiary, I believe, so I don't need to adjust further)

The blue text on a pink (light red) background includes KHC. You might want to know these figures for some specific purposes of your own, but as KHC is consolidated, they don't now find their way into cells D7 or S7.

I also made a few improvements to the robustness of the sheet possibly to do with the update going on with Google Finance, which sometimes throws up error messages that it used not to, and which may also speed up the calculations by reducing unnecessary GOOGLEFINANCE() queries:

I fixed the currency for Monsanto (no longer trading since Bayer takeover) to USD as their debt in Canada is now showing under symbol MON and reporting the currency as CAD instead. After the 13-F and 10-Q in August, this will become irrelevant as the after-tax cash proceeds of the takeover will be reflected in the financial statements.

I've also made the sheet a bit more resilient to changing functionality of the GOOGLEFINANCE() function which I have reported but which hasn't been permanently fixed - I guess it depends whether their data provider at any moment returns a value or not in some edge cases.

Where both currencies were the same, e.g. CURRENCY:USDUSD, it used to return 1.0, but now returns #N/A error sometimes, meaning any dependent cells also show #N/A error. I now check if they match and return 1.0 if they do.

On my personal sheets, I sometimes track UK shares priced in British Pennies GBX but want to convert to British Pounds GBP, my home currency, so on those sheet I also check for that and return 0.01 to fix a similar sporadic bug that covers my sheet in error messages.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: globalfinancepartners on July 03, 2018, 06:51:36 AM
You have the gist right on KHC.  It is not consolidated technically, it is accounted for under the equity method.  The effect is the same for your purposes though.  Berkshire's share of the earnings are already included without the need to 'look-through.'
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on July 03, 2018, 06:54:44 AM
You have the gist right on KHC.  It is not consolidated technically, it is accounted for under the equity method.  The effect is the same for your purposes though.  Berkshire's share of the earnings are already included without the need to 'look-through.'

Thanks GFP, I was hoping you'd tell me if I had the essence correct or not.

Would I also be right to imagine that changes in KHC's market price would not carry over to Book Value except perhaps in the annual report where Berkshire might reassess its carrying value, as I think it did in the 2017 Annual Report?
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: globalfinancepartners on July 03, 2018, 07:00:39 AM
Correct, wiggles in KHC share price will not effect our carrying value unless they do another deal that involves BRK's ownership percentage changing.  BRK had to mark up their carrying value for KHC in connection with the Kraft merger because for GAAP purposes when your ownership goes from 52% to 26% or whatever the net result was, they treat it as if you sold a proportional piece of your position at the merger price (not for tax purposes obviously).

Wiggles in other stocks in the portfolio will now pass through the income statement, and always were reflected in carrying value (net of their deferred tax liability).
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on July 03, 2018, 08:02:15 AM
Thanks for your response, GFP. I'm reassured that the look-through sheet is a better tool now than before these changes and the various others (such as accounting for the New England Asset Management and pension holdings) that you inspired earlier in this thread.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on August 09, 2018, 12:52:20 AM
A few minor changes just made updating Berkshire BV/share and share count. Nothing significant unless you want to monitor the current Price-to-Book Value ratio in cells X3 and X4.

The spreadsheet does NOT include the latest estimated Apple holding (up about 2% in share count) as the 13-F is soon due for release and it can be updated then to a more exact figure rather than mess with the established adjustment for pension scheme holdings. If you wish to account for changes to Apple and Wells Fargo, you can make a copy on your own Google Drive and easily add or subtract from the formula in the Adjustment column in tab "Combined Holdings".

This sheet also includes MON (Monsanto) with a estimate of the after-tax proceeds from its takeover. This cash and tax should be in Berkshire's quarterly financials so I'll remove the Monsanto proceeds when updating after the 13-F is released in a week or two.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on August 10, 2018, 08:10:38 AM
Berkshire appears to have increased its stake in AXALTA COATINGS SYSTEMS LTD. - SEC Filing Schedule 13G/A (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312518244995/d590416dsc13ga.htm).

The beneficial ownership we count on as shareholders had been 20,940,000 shares and has increased by 940,000 to 21,880,000 shares.

There are also 2,384,000 shares for the benefit of various pensions which are controlled by Berkshire but not for their economic benefit. These pension holdings are unchanged except that Berkshire has consolidated some of its pension plans (three that held 700,000 shares between them before are now in the Berkshire Hathaway Consolidated Pension Plan, which now holds those 700,000)

Including these too, on the last 13-F it controlled 23,324,000 shares, now increased by 940,000 to 24,264,000, which is shown as 10.1% of the outstanding shares known on the filing date.

The event that resulted in this filing was 14 days ago (10 working days) - July 26th. I guess they paid around $30 per share judging by recent price action.

I will not adjust the Look-Through spreadsheet to include this until after the 13-F filing is released, and then I will link to that 13G/A filing in the worksheet 'COMBINED HOLDINGS'.
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on August 14, 2018, 06:28:19 PM
Both sheets now updated for the latest 13-F filings for Berkshire Hathaway (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095012318008866/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml) and Owner 01 02 in New England Asset Management (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1004244/000108514618002153/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml) (NEAM).

As always I net out holdings by pension funds to show only beneficially owned shares and I also make adjustments for known or previously declared foreign holdings believed to be held, but not required to be reported to SEC in 13-F. My holdings are thus a little different from most Berkshire portfolio updates you'll find online.

The Axalta holdings in the 13-F seem no different to the 13G/A referred to above, and the pension fund holdings in that 13G/A were unchanged in total number compared to the previous quarter.

As Berkshire's press release warned, some financial and airline stocks were trimmed to remain below 10% while other financials and airlines were added to during the same quarter.

The estimated Apple holding (based on the 10Q's holding value divided by the closing price) was correct to 3 significant figures and does represent an increase above the 5% threshold of voting power.

You can find and copy the Google Sheets as before:
The spreadsheet I'd advise you to Make a copy of for your own use is:
• Berkshire Hathaway Look Through Earnings & Holdings (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ok3bOO4z_2Itbta6FguKbuFA1HvcQvzisspPBN6IpZY/)

The spreadsheet that is publicly editable by anyone (but anyone can see any edits you make, the edit history, or corrupt the spreadsheet) is:
• Berkshire Look through earnings - Public editing allowed (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gMfyZOFCW1-KrY_P8SGRf3pTstspdAGw_DuKSQxO8s/edit?usp=sharing)

I removed the estimated after tax Monsanto buyout proceeds that I put in during June now that the share count is reduced to zero. The PSG holding is still there. I still include various eliminated positions on the Look-Through sheet, which come to zero.

There's a summary of the changes from quarter to quarter on the tab COMBINED HOLDINGS, columns D, E and F.

AAL: -5.1% of beneficially owned shares (-1,300,000 shares) presumably to stay below 10% voting power including large non-beneficial pension fund holding.

AAPL: +5.1% (+12,388,244 shares) taking ownership over 5%

AXTA: +4.5% (+940,000 shares) as disclosed in 13G/A (prev post)

BK: +4.8% (+2,608,928 shares) % assuming none of new stake owned by pension funds.

CHTR: -11.0% (-718,688 shares) % assuming none sold were pension holdings.

DAL: +18.8% (+10,066,483 shares)

GM: +3.1% (+1,393,611 shares)

GS: +20.1% (+2,294,971 shares)

JNJ: +8.7% (+28,832 shares)

LBTYA: +10.5% (+1,884,592 shares)

LUV: +18.6% (+8,887,943 shares)

MON (Monsanto): -100% (-18,970,134 shares) due to Bayer acquisition.

PSX: -27.7% (-10,960,378 shares) % assuming none sold by pension funds.

TEVA: +6.7% (+2,709,585 shares)

UAL: -3.9% (-1,021,421 shares) presumably to stay below 10% voting power including pension funds.

USB: +10.5% (11,273,496 shares)

VRSK: -14.2% (-458,692 shares)

WFC: -0.5% (-2,295,019 shares) to stay below 10% to avoid bank holding co status

No new positions. Only Monsanto eliminated this quarter. VRSK, while eliminated from BRK's own 13-F, was still present in NEAM 13-F [Edit: VRSK not AXTA as I previously stated in error].
Title: Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
Post by: Dynamic on September 27, 2018, 12:37:01 PM
Just edited both versions to account for the sale of Philips 66 (PSX) announced on Sep 10th 13G/A filing.

I've added a line for the pre-tax proceeds of the sale, as this cash is available for investment but the actual post-tax proceeds will be reflected in the balance sheet for Q3 when release in November, and I'll remove it once the 2018-Q3 13-F is filed.

I assumed it raised about $117 per share on selling 12.5 million shares, raising around $1.467 billion pre-tax ($1.467 bn). Assuming the cost basis is still around $78.31 as it was at 2017 Q4, this gives about $484 million estimated capital gains that might have about a $97 million tax liability at 20% (about $7.74 capital gains tax per share sold). The $117 is essentially hard-coded in the price. The remaining stock is still shown at current market price. If you want to account for the estimated tax, you could hard-code the price as $109.26.

I'm including the gross proceeds in the portfolio until the end of the quarter just to aid in tracking its total value. The cash proceeds don't contribute to look-through earnings any more. In the quarterly financials, the cash balance and the tax liability will be updated to include the effects of the sale and I'll then remove the cash. This is much the same as happened during Q2 when Monsanto was acquired by Bayer for $128 per share.