Author Topic: Q4 2008 13F  (Read 21707 times)

Mungerish

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Re: Q4 2008 13F
« Reply #10 on: February 17, 2009, 05:31:17 PM »
In June or July Becky Quick confirmed he had been buying WFC versus AXP for his personal account.

Here in the article he says he was 100% in cash.
WFC had roughy doubled in between
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html




dowfin1

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Re: Q4 2008 13F
« Reply #11 on: February 17, 2009, 05:52:15 PM »
Mungerish,

Thanks. 

The Becky Quick interview was on Oct 3, 2008 and the op-ed peice was dated Oct 17 where WEB says he's starting to buy domestic shares.  On Oct. 3 WEB says he bought WFC when it dropped around the low 20s  which happened during a short window in mid-July 2008 according to the chart. 

My reading of the 13g/a is that as of 12-31-08 WEB personally owns 2,240,000 WFC shares based on his sole voting authority.

Mungerish

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Re: Q4 2008 13F
« Reply #12 on: February 17, 2009, 06:19:01 PM »
The BQ interview I was referencing was actually 8/22/08 (I just pulled the transcript of my LT)
"THIS IS PART ONE OF "THREE HOURS WITH WARREN BUFFETT - LIVE FROM OMAHA" ON CNBC'S SQUAWK BOX WITH BECKY QUICK, FRIDAY, AUGUST 22, 2008
QUICK: American Express, Wells Fargo, those are two of your big holdings...
BUFFETT: Right.
QUICK: ...in the financial arena. If you see prices come down and something you've already decided you like this business, if the prices come down, do you buy more?
BUFFETT: Sure.
QUICK: Are you buying more?
BUFFETT: Well, I bought more of one of those, you know, in recent--in recent months.
QUICK: Either American Express or Wells Fargo?
BUFFETT: Now you've got it narrowed down. They--incidentally, both of those companies were started by the same guy, as I--Wells and Fargo started American Express."
Cheers

Parsad

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Re: Q4 2008 13F
« Reply #13 on: February 17, 2009, 06:38:43 PM »
Thanks for the update
I was getting a little nervous b/c Whitney Tilson  reminded us at CIMA last Friday that he is short WFC. He considers them "a denier"  ;D

Actually, I own WFC and USB here in the teens so I was hoping to see them buying more.
I also own WSC which has a considerable poistion in WFC based upon holdings

Well Whitney may be correct to a degree.  Wells Fargo won't completely avoid fallout, nor will their stock stay up if the entire sector is brutally hammered.  But market price is very different than a business going under...Fairfax is a perfectly good example of that, and also one that Whitney shorted.

If you look at the entire banking sector, Wells will get hit on occasion as other companies and the economy suffer, but they will be one of the few left standing in an industry where enormous consolidation will occur over the next few years.  The other thing about Wells is the their management, and their ability to cross-sell to their clients.  No customer for any other bank uses as many company products.  The average is like 2.6 industry-wide, while Wells Fargo customer's is 5.6. 

Their clients are locked in.  They use too many products and get too many deals by using them to go to another bank.  That ability to cross-sell, combined with their ability to weather the storm, will allow Wells to increase market share.  And they are already doing so, as customers from other banks flee to them.  But that doesn't mean the stock won't continue to get hammered or suffer some losses from different markets like California or Texas.  Our only concern should be what their actual results are long-term, and do they have the ability to weather this storm.  Buffett seems to think so.  Cheers!     
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alertmeipp

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Re: Q4 2008 13F
« Reply #14 on: February 17, 2009, 06:59:22 PM »
I agree WFC is cheap (and I got some at 20% above the current price).
The confusing part is actual the US Gov. They seems can't make up their minds on the banking system. The coming mortgage cramdown thing for one is totally non-sense.
Leave WFC/USB alone, I am confidence it will survive and prosper. But with the ever-changing gov intervene, I am not so sure.

I would rather buy GE/AXP/MFC.

Investmentacct

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Re: Q4 2008 13F
« Reply #15 on: February 17, 2009, 07:44:26 PM »
We thought after 1999 experience, Cramer would not make these kind of comments again. But here we go again.
Good fun.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29246565/site/14081545?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo


valueguy31

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Re: Q4 2008 13F
« Reply #16 on: February 17, 2009, 08:04:10 PM »
We thought after 1999 experience, Cramer would not make these kind of comments again. But here we go again.
Good fun.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29246565/site/14081545?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo



Watched that tonight and chuckled a bit. No matter what the state of WEB's age, mind, or health, I pity the fool making any kind of call on him. Solely for television audiences.

dowfin1

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Re: Q4 2008 13F
« Reply #17 on: February 17, 2009, 08:05:05 PM »
Here is the 10-03 follow-up interview:


FRIDAY, 3 OCT 2008 CNBC

BECKY: You know, we were all caught off guard this morning by the
Wells Fargo bid to take over Wachovia. How did that come about?

BUFFETT: Well, as I understand it, there was something in the tax
bill, actually, that may have been passed Monday, which, in effect,
made the deal more attractive. And the Wachovia shareholders are
going to get the benefit of the fact that that tax situation changed.
They're going to get a lot more money than they would have gotten if
that tax bill hadn't passed.

BECKY: Obviously though, Citigroup a little unhappy with how this all
came out. Charlie Gasparino has been reporting today that Citigroup
officials just found out about this last night at about two o'clock
in the morning. They are claiming that they had the FDIC backing on
some of this. Where do you see this coming down?

BUFFETT: Well, I don't know the answer to that. I don't know all the
technicalities. I know it's a better deal, obviously, for the
Wachovia shareholders. And I know that there is no company, there's
no banking institution, during the last six months, that has done a
better job for its holders, for its depositors, and for its
borrowers, than Wells. Wells has been lending more and more money.
They've been pumping money into the economy during the last six
months while other institutions have been contracting. So I think
Wells is a wonderful home for Wachovia.

BECKY: How dire of a situation do you think this was, though, for
Wachovia shareholders last weekend when everyone seemed to be
considering this deal at one time, Wells Fargo walked away. Did the
idea that Citigroup came in that night keep the bank in operation the
next day when the markets opened?

BUFFETT: Well, I think the FDIC one way or another would have kept
things open. But there's no question the Wachovia situation worsened
dramatically over the last few weeks. Incidentally, I think (Wachovia
CEO) Bob Steel has done a good job since he came in, but he got
handed an impossible hand. And like I say, fortunately this tax bill
makes Wachovia more valuable and Wells has stepped up with an offer
that will provide considerably more money to the Wachovia
shareholders. I also -- I really do think there's no, there's no
banking institution that has done a better job during this tough
period than Wells. I'll tell you one interesting fact, Becky. There
are only two domestic stocks that I own personally. One is Berkshire
Hathaway and the other is Wells Fargo. But I've got quite a bit more
of Berkshire Hathaway. (Laughs.)

BECKY: Now I know that when we talked to you about a month ago, you
told us that when you were looking at the financials there was one
stock you've been buying more of. People at the time -- we narrowed
it down to two. We got you to admit that it was either Wells Fargo or
American Express. Was it Wells Fargo?

BUFFETT: Well, now you know. Yeah, it was Wells Fargo. (Laughs.)
We've added quite a bit to our holdings since the start of the year.

BECKY: Added quite a bit to Wells Fargo -- Have you added to your own
personal holdings in Wells, too?

BUFFETT: Yeah, I bought -- The first domestic stock that I can
remember buying, I don't know, in a decade or two. But there was a
time that Wells got down into the low 20s and so I couldn't resist. I
bought some myself. I keep most of my money in Treasury bonds, except
for Berkshire Hathaway, but I did buy some Wells.

frog03

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Re: Q4 2008 13F
« Reply #18 on: February 17, 2009, 10:25:22 PM »
It's just a no-brainer!  As is GE.

**************

GE has no tangible equity in light of a huge balance sheet and tons of various financial exposure.  How is it a no brainer?

Parsad

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Re: Q4 2008 13F
« Reply #19 on: February 17, 2009, 10:40:52 PM »
GE has no tangible equity in light of a huge balance sheet and tons of various financial exposure.  How is it a no brainer?

Where do you get the idea that GE has no tangible equity?  Those revenues and earnings from the various lines of business, most of which they are #1 or #2 in, come from somewhere.  Just because their financial assets dwarf their operating assets, and a standard ratio isn't defined by their intangible assets, doesn't mean that the core earnings generating power from the various businesses isn't there.  They are as tangible as Berkshire's businesses.  Cheers!
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