Author Topic: Semper Augustus letter  (Read 30954 times)

ValueMaven

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Re: Semper Augustus letter
« Reply #30 on: December 24, 2017, 05:48:32 AM »
I wonder if Chris will be updating his analysis for 2017 shortly, particularly in-light of all that has occurred at Berkshire.  It still remains one of the best piece of analysis that I have read...way more detailed then JPM's coverage piece on the company.

Sincerely,
ValueMaven


longinvestor

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Re: Semper Augustus letter
« Reply #31 on: December 24, 2017, 07:14:37 AM »
FANG's and Lemmings ;)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-races-past-berkshire-hathaways-market-cap-2016-07-28

Market cap (update)

FANG: $1.44 Trillion
BRK: $431 Billion

Rationality be damned! Oh wait, we haven't been here before, have we? ;)



Yes, nearly 17 years ago, a full year before the epic tech-wreck, Sanjeev posted the following about Canada's tech-darling, Northern Telecom:

"Icemann, what do all these companies have in common?  Last QuarterTicker Revenues Earnings Market Cap.BBD 3.3B 147M 15.7BBNS 4.6B 465M 17.6BBM 4.8B 497M 17.0BCM 5.9B 676M 15.7BL 4.3B 77M 11.9BPOW 4.0B 132M 6.4BTD 5.4B 41M 21.7BRY 5.6B 578M 23.0B  If you combine all those numbers you get total quarterly revenues of 37.9B, total quarterly earnings of 2.613B, and a total market capitalization of 129B. Nortels numbers ending the same quarter look like this: revenues of 6.8B, earnings of -128M, and market capitalization of 167B. For almost one quarter less you could buy all big five banks, the largest grocery chain in Canada, the largest investment firm in Canada, and the bluest of the blue industrial companies. In the short-term the market is all about style, in the long-term it is about substance. As amazing as NT's growth has been, and it's emergence coincided with an information revolution, it is extremely overvalued. When this humpty dumpty has its fall, all the kings horses, and all the kings men, will not be able to put it back together again! So don't feel so bad that you missed the boat on NT. There are many good companies out there, that are trading at undervalued levels. Some of the ones from above are worth looking at! Many investors, including indexers will suffer the consequences, when NT has an earnings shortfall in the future, and the market rapidly removes the enormous premium applied to its market price. Cheers!"


It was obvious then, and it's obvious now.  Thanks again, Sanj.


SJ

Fred Schwed in Where are the customers' yachts? says something like this was the rage in the period 1925-1929 (Sept, that is).

Company XYZ is going up....what do they make and what are their prospects, asks an inquiring mind.....who cares...XYZ is going up. ....All one needs to know is the ticker symbol......

John Hjorth

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Re: Semper Augustus letter
« Reply #32 on: February 07, 2018, 02:17:38 PM »
I wonder if Chris will be updating his analysis for 2017 shortly, particularly in-light of all that has occurred at Berkshire.  It still remains one of the best piece of analysis that I have read...way more detailed then JPM's coverage piece on the company.

Sincerely,
ValueMaven

I have now started looking daily on the Semper Augustus website for new interesting stuff from Mr. Bloomstran to read. It seems to be about this time of the year new letters are posted.

I'll post here if I see something new comes up.
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
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DooDiligence

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Re: Semper Augustus letter
« Reply #33 on: February 08, 2018, 03:12:46 AM »
I wonder if Chris will be updating his analysis for 2017 shortly, particularly in-light of all that has occurred at Berkshire.  It still remains one of the best piece of analysis that I have read...way more detailed then JPM's coverage piece on the company.

Sincerely,
ValueMaven

I have now started looking daily on the Semper Augustus website for new interesting stuff from Mr. Bloomstran to read. It seems to be about this time of the year new letters are posted.

I'll post here if I see something new comes up.

I like their creative writing style.
(Healthcare 42.9% - ABC BBH CVS DVA EW NVO) | (BRK.B - 14.8%) | (Media & Communication 12.6% - CHTR CMCSA DIS)

(Drinkers & Smokers 13.8% - ABEV MO) | (Auto's & Oil 10.3% - GPC VDE) | (Tech & Comms 5.5% - AAPL SFTBY)

(%'s held @ MV 9/04, excludes $)

[prepared 2 wait?]

https://twitter.com/tunawish

longinvestor

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Re: Semper Augustus letter
« Reply #34 on: February 08, 2018, 05:51:11 AM »
I wonder if Chris will be updating his analysis for 2017 shortly, particularly in-light of all that has occurred at Berkshire.  It still remains one of the best piece of analysis that I have read...way more detailed then JPM's coverage piece on the company.

Sincerely,
ValueMaven

I have now started looking daily on the Semper Augustus website for new interesting stuff from Mr. Bloomstran to read. It seems to be about this time of the year new letters are posted.

I'll post here if I see something new comes up.
Thanks for doing this. I've looked for it also.

I like them because they value Berkshire higher than everyone else. And in this matter, everyone else is wrong. Spoken like the true groupie, ha.

ValueMaven

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Re: Semper Augustus letter
« Reply #35 on: February 08, 2018, 07:24:45 AM »
It's the single best analysis of Berkshire I've seen...


SlowAppreciation

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ValueMaven

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Re: Semper Augustus letter
« Reply #37 on: February 23, 2018, 04:46:24 PM »
Yea...WOW...Some of the best analysis I've ever read...

IV targets ranging from $240 - $250...  :)

Sincerely,
ValueMaven

Cevian

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Re: Semper Augustus letter
« Reply #38 on: February 23, 2018, 04:48:29 PM »
This is a book! :)

longinvestor

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Re: Semper Augustus letter
« Reply #39 on: February 23, 2018, 07:23:34 PM »
My favorite part of their analysis is the extent of the under-reported economic earning power, pages 67-69. Something in the order of $6000 per A share. That makes for a happy thought at bedtime for a concentrated BRK investor!