Author Topic: Semper Augustus letter  (Read 13587 times)

ValueMaven

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Re: Semper Augustus letter
« Reply #30 on: December 24, 2017, 05:48:32 AM »
I wonder if Chris will be updating his analysis for 2017 shortly, particularly in-light of all that has occurred at Berkshire.  It still remains one of the best piece of analysis that I have read...way more detailed then JPM's coverage piece on the company.

Sincerely,
ValueMaven


longinvestor

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Re: Semper Augustus letter
« Reply #31 on: December 24, 2017, 07:14:37 AM »
FANG's and Lemmings ;)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-races-past-berkshire-hathaways-market-cap-2016-07-28

Market cap (update)

FANG: $1.44 Trillion
BRK: $431 Billion

Rationality be damned! Oh wait, we haven't been here before, have we? ;)



Yes, nearly 17 years ago, a full year before the epic tech-wreck, Sanjeev posted the following about Canada's tech-darling, Northern Telecom:

"Icemann, what do all these companies have in common?  Last QuarterTicker Revenues Earnings Market Cap.BBD 3.3B 147M 15.7BBNS 4.6B 465M 17.6BBM 4.8B 497M 17.0BCM 5.9B 676M 15.7BL 4.3B 77M 11.9BPOW 4.0B 132M 6.4BTD 5.4B 41M 21.7BRY 5.6B 578M 23.0B  If you combine all those numbers you get total quarterly revenues of 37.9B, total quarterly earnings of 2.613B, and a total market capitalization of 129B. Nortels numbers ending the same quarter look like this: revenues of 6.8B, earnings of -128M, and market capitalization of 167B. For almost one quarter less you could buy all big five banks, the largest grocery chain in Canada, the largest investment firm in Canada, and the bluest of the blue industrial companies. In the short-term the market is all about style, in the long-term it is about substance. As amazing as NT's growth has been, and it's emergence coincided with an information revolution, it is extremely overvalued. When this humpty dumpty has its fall, all the kings horses, and all the kings men, will not be able to put it back together again! So don't feel so bad that you missed the boat on NT. There are many good companies out there, that are trading at undervalued levels. Some of the ones from above are worth looking at! Many investors, including indexers will suffer the consequences, when NT has an earnings shortfall in the future, and the market rapidly removes the enormous premium applied to its market price. Cheers!"


It was obvious then, and it's obvious now.  Thanks again, Sanj.


SJ

Fred Schwed in Where are the customers' yachts? says something like this was the rage in the period 1925-1929 (Sept, that is).

Company XYZ is going up....what do they make and what are their prospects, asks an inquiring mind.....who cares...XYZ is going up. ....All one needs to know is the ticker symbol......