Author Topic: What company should Berkshire buy?  (Read 19885 times)

bizaro86

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Re: What company should Berkshire buy?
« Reply #80 on: January 17, 2019, 08:59:03 PM »
Oh for sure. Not saying it would be easy or that I could do a better job. It just seems to me that they have become a top-of-mind destination for family business owners looking to sell in the USA, and I think Europe would be a good place to look to expand that. At a certain number of generations on some of these businesses you'd think liquidity might get attractive, but you could still honor the idea of a family business by finding it a permanent home.


gfp

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Re: What company should Berkshire buy?
« Reply #81 on: January 18, 2019, 05:50:17 AM »
Yeah, its always going to be tough.  Warren will be the first to advise against selling if a family has a well run, profitable, large business with durable competitive advantage and attractive, predictable long term economics.  Generation changes and liquidity needs (and sometimes capital raising needs) are the main reasons families sell.  The Pritzkers had their spoiled children suing them in a public way - that helped.  More and more, Berkshire will have to turn to public companies because of the need for very large companies to buy.  It's hard to negotiate a purchase of a desirable public company at a sensible price. 

- side note: maybe a side benefit of all the giving pledge networking meetings..  It's tricky to donate at least half your family fortune if you don't create liquidity for the family enterprise
« Last Edit: January 18, 2019, 05:52:26 AM by gfp »

AdjustedEarnings

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Re: What company should Berkshire buy?
« Reply #82 on: January 18, 2019, 07:11:37 AM »
KHC! It's got all the elements:

1. Cash cow but not growing... means good candidate for reinvestment of its profits elsewhere
2. Already own some of it, so premium need only be paid on the balance
3. A management team that excels in controlling costs and would probably be better able to do their thing "privately" than publicly.
4. A management team that wouldn't mind sending cash flows elsewhere

Problem of course is could Berkshire handle all that cash? I understand the feeling that in the next "big one" Warren is supposed to put all of this to work, but if they get up to $150 or $200 billion, it may well be impossible and it'll just simply drag on returns. If they have to pay dividends then there's no point paying a premium for KHC and returning its cashflow along with others in dividends. KHC can just pay their own dividend and BRK won't have to pay a premium.

longinvestor

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Re: What company should Berkshire buy?
« Reply #83 on: January 18, 2019, 07:38:55 AM »
KHC! It's got all the elements:

1. Cash cow but not growing... means good candidate for reinvestment of its profits elsewhere
2. Already own some of it, so premium need only be paid on the balance
3. A management team that excels in controlling costs and would probably be better able to do their thing "privately" than publicly.
4. A management team that wouldn't mind sending cash flows elsewhere

Problem of course is could Berkshire handle all that cash? I understand the feeling that in the next "big one" Warren is supposed to put all of this to work, but if they get up to $150 or $200 billion, it may well be impossible and it'll just simply drag on returns. If they have to pay dividends then there's no point paying a premium for KHC and returning its cashflow along with others in dividends. KHC can just pay their own dividend and BRK won't have to pay a premium.

+1. IMO the elephant will be familiar name, one in the fold already. Any 3G exit strategy most likely involves Berkshire. Kraft was Act I and there will likely be an Act II and III some day. In fact, Unilever was in play but was botched. The food industry needs consolidating and is in the circle of competence.   

John Hjorth

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Re: What company should Berkshire buy?
« Reply #84 on: January 18, 2019, 01:47:14 PM »
Honestly, right now I've given up speculating about it for now.

Right now, I feel that I'm - as an investor - like Moses the Red Sea. I.e.,I have absolutely no clue of the Berkshire AAPL position YE2018, as of now. I've just started to study all the FAANGs, beside AAPL. [Long time ago I started looking at AAPL.]  [I may loose some time on that, sure, but the entertainment & educational value is already not for my despise - absolutely fantastic stories.] All fantastic companies, with a fantastic [short?] story. None of that may make them fantastic investments, though.
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