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General Category => Books => Topic started by: Liberty on March 12, 2018, 09:00:38 AM

Title: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: Liberty on March 12, 2018, 09:00:38 AM
I haven't read it yet, but it's in the pile, and I've heard good things about it.

https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions-ebook/dp/B074DG9LQF/

Background on the author:

Quote
Annie Duke is a World Series of Poker bracelet winner, the winner of the 2004 Tournament of Champions and the only woman to win the NBC National Poker Heads Up Championship. Now, as a professional speaker and decision strategist, she merges her poker expertise with her cognitive psychology graduate work at UPenn.

If anyone here has read it, please let us know what you think.
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: CorpRaider on March 12, 2018, 11:25:32 AM
Haven't read it yet either, but she was on Ted Siedes' podcast and the Behind the Markets Podcast (J. Schwartz with Wes Grey as guest host/the guy who booked her).

Sounds like it might fit nicely into an "intro to behavioral finance/probabilistic thinking for those who don't want to get into the full blown weeds of Thinking Fast and Slow" category.  I was thinking it might be a good holiday gift for people.
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: rb on March 12, 2018, 12:33:46 PM
One should be weary when reading and/or seeking advice from crooks.

For more detail you can look up Duke's involvement with Ultimate Bet and Epic Poker League as well as a her brother's involvement with Full Tilt.
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: notorious546 on March 12, 2018, 01:03:44 PM
One should be weary when reading and/or seeking advice from crooks.

For more detail you can look up Duke's involvement with Ultimate Bet and Epic Poker League as well as a her brother's involvement with Full Tilt.

https://calvinayre.com/2013/05/25/poker/annie-duke-statement-reaction-to-ultimate-bet-cheating-tapes/

http://www.bankrollmob.com/poker-news/2012925/player-had-leave-tournament-after-questioning-annie-duke-over-epic-poker-scandal
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: netnet on March 12, 2018, 01:39:58 PM


Thinking in Bets is excellent.  I am quite familiar with the literature and still I found the book very worthwhile. If you don't know behavioral psych and econ, then this is a good applied introduction.  For many the behavioral literature is too theoretical and many find it difficult to apply.

She certainly has the theory down, as she was a PHD student (in decision sciences or related field).

Even if you know the literature, the practical tips in the book are valuable.

This will undoubtedly be one of my favorite books 2018.

Buy the book, he said as he pounded the table!! 8)
(I can't speak to the controversy alluded to above, but even if she were sitting in a jail cell next to Bernie Madoff, I would still recommend the book.)
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: Charlie on March 25, 2018, 07:56:57 AM
Thank you for recommending.

Iīm reading it and it is a great book.  :)
Munger said one should think like a poker player, so itīs very useful.
On pages 191-194 she mentions Berkshire Hathaway and that as
a shareholder who makes a long-term investment itīs not productive
to have a short-term focus on the price chart or as Buffett once said:
"Donīt stare at the charts."
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: Cigarbutt on March 25, 2018, 09:33:10 AM
Thank you for the idea.
Here's a review that seems to get the gist of the book:
A Gambler's Education
https://www.wsj.com/articles/review-a-gamblers-education-1519169357
or
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/print/WSJ_-A015-20180221.pdf

"Ms. Duke counsels us to seek strength in numbers, forming "truthseeking" cohorts committed to challenging self-serving narratives and critically interrogating the beliefs behind our decisions."

Investing, like poker, is basically an individual exercise in terms of decision making.
Learning (from others) seems to open up opportunities. Hope it goes both ways.

The suggestion made it to the to-read list.
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: DTEJD1997 on March 25, 2018, 10:29:45 AM
Hey all:

Poker is certainly interesting and is sometimes an enjoyable game.

I do not know the specifics of Annie Dukes situation...but I would caution people about taking advice from "poker professionals".

Many of those "professionals" are simply broke, degenerate gamblers.  They may win $5 million playing in a big tournament where they win or place highly....but they've lost $6 million trying to get there and or playing in cash games.

Obviously not all of them are broke/degenerates, but a surprising number are!
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: JayGatsby on March 26, 2018, 09:06:59 PM
I do not know the specifics of Annie Dukes situation...but I would caution people about taking advice from "poker professionals".
Think that's too general. Yes, don't take advice from people who are actually bad at what they preach (a lot of the business books they sell at airports). The poker players I know are actually quite rational and could be quite good investors / businessfolk. 

There's some pretty negative stuff online about Annie Duke's involvement in some poker related businesses. Whether or not true, I don't know, but she doesn't seem to be held in high regard in the poker community. So maybe in this case you're taking advice from the wrong person.
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: Peregrino on April 03, 2018, 11:34:25 AM
Wasn't a huge fan.  Having read a lot on decision making lately (particularly Tetlock, and some stuff on Shannon/Thorp/Kelly), I didn't feel like it had that much new in it.

That said, as an introduction, it would probably cover a lot of ground in a very accessible manner, and it was also entertaining.
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: notorious546 on April 16, 2018, 11:40:59 AM
Wasn't a huge fan.  Having read a lot on decision making lately (particularly Tetlock, and some stuff on Shannon/Thorp/Kelly), I didn't feel like it had that much new in it.

That said, as an introduction, it would probably cover a lot of ground in a very accessible manner, and it was also entertaining.

there seems to be this sort of trend lately in many books. repeat what others have said in more defining game changing works somehow do a lot of podcast interviews and publicity type things. drive book sales
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: Liberty on April 16, 2018, 03:14:00 PM
Wasn't a huge fan.  Having read a lot on decision making lately (particularly Tetlock, and some stuff on Shannon/Thorp/Kelly), I didn't feel like it had that much new in it.

That said, as an introduction, it would probably cover a lot of ground in a very accessible manner, and it was also entertaining.

there seems to be this sort of trend lately in many books. repeat what others have said in more defining game changing works somehow do a lot of podcast interviews and publicity type things. drive book sales

Most investment books are derivative too. I think it's just a symptom of being well read. When you start out on your learning journey, everything seems fresh and original. When you've been reading about investing/psychology/etc for a decade or two, everything starts to seem similar.

I guess if everything was groundbreaking, it wouldn't be so notable to find true groundbreaking work...
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: tombgrt on April 16, 2018, 03:53:55 PM
Wasn't a huge fan.  Having read a lot on decision making lately (particularly Tetlock, and some stuff on Shannon/Thorp/Kelly), I didn't feel like it had that much new in it.

That said, as an introduction, it would probably cover a lot of ground in a very accessible manner, and it was also entertaining.

there seems to be this sort of trend lately in many books. repeat what others have said in more defining game changing works somehow do a lot of podcast interviews and publicity type things. drive book sales

Most investment books are derivative too. I think it's just a symptom of being well read. When you start out on your learning journey, everything seems fresh and original. When you've been reading about investing/psychology/etc for a decade or two, everything starts to seem similar.

I guess if everything was groundbreaking, it wouldn't be so notable to find true groundbreaking work...

Well said!
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: Liberty on April 23, 2018, 08:08:22 PM
Good interview with her here:

https://overcast.fm/+JWZR8iPBs
Title: Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
Post by: Liberty on May 07, 2018, 06:57:19 AM
Another good interview, different enough from the one above:

http://capitalallocatorspodcast.com/2018/02/05/annied/