Author Topic: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke  (Read 12635 times)

notorious546

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2018, 11:40:59 AM »
Wasn't a huge fan.  Having read a lot on decision making lately (particularly Tetlock, and some stuff on Shannon/Thorp/Kelly), I didn't feel like it had that much new in it.

That said, as an introduction, it would probably cover a lot of ground in a very accessible manner, and it was also entertaining.

there seems to be this sort of trend lately in many books. repeat what others have said in more defining game changing works somehow do a lot of podcast interviews and publicity type things. drive book sales


Liberty

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2018, 03:14:00 PM »
Wasn't a huge fan.  Having read a lot on decision making lately (particularly Tetlock, and some stuff on Shannon/Thorp/Kelly), I didn't feel like it had that much new in it.

That said, as an introduction, it would probably cover a lot of ground in a very accessible manner, and it was also entertaining.

there seems to be this sort of trend lately in many books. repeat what others have said in more defining game changing works somehow do a lot of podcast interviews and publicity type things. drive book sales

Most investment books are derivative too. I think it's just a symptom of being well read. When you start out on your learning journey, everything seems fresh and original. When you've been reading about investing/psychology/etc for a decade or two, everything starts to seem similar.

I guess if everything was groundbreaking, it wouldn't be so notable to find true groundbreaking work...
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

tombgrt

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2018, 03:53:55 PM »
Wasn't a huge fan.  Having read a lot on decision making lately (particularly Tetlock, and some stuff on Shannon/Thorp/Kelly), I didn't feel like it had that much new in it.

That said, as an introduction, it would probably cover a lot of ground in a very accessible manner, and it was also entertaining.

there seems to be this sort of trend lately in many books. repeat what others have said in more defining game changing works somehow do a lot of podcast interviews and publicity type things. drive book sales

Most investment books are derivative too. I think it's just a symptom of being well read. When you start out on your learning journey, everything seems fresh and original. When you've been reading about investing/psychology/etc for a decade or two, everything starts to seem similar.

I guess if everything was groundbreaking, it wouldn't be so notable to find true groundbreaking work...

Well said!

Liberty

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #13 on: April 23, 2018, 08:08:22 PM »
Good interview with her here:

https://overcast.fm/+JWZR8iPBs
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Liberty

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2018, 06:57:19 AM »
Another good interview, different enough from the one above:

http://capitalallocatorspodcast.com/2018/02/05/annied/
« Last Edit: May 07, 2018, 07:07:03 AM by Liberty »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Liberty

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #15 on: May 14, 2019, 07:23:08 AM »
Interview/discussion with Duke and Marc Andreessen:

https://a16z.com/2019/05/07/thinking-in-bets-innovation-uncertainty/
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Liberty

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2019, 05:00:00 AM »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Saluki

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #17 on: July 09, 2019, 07:40:03 AM »
I recommend the book too.  If you're already familiar with the Kelly criterion for bet sizing, this is very basic but still entertaining.  Howard Marks and Nassim Taleb have talked about decision making and probabilities--how you can't determine if it was a good decision by looking at the outcome, only by looking at the process--but this is a book solely on that decision making process.  I think people will get a lot out of it because besides just announcing the theory she gives you some practical advice on how to apply it to your own decision making process.   
If it's important, do it every day. If it's not important, don't do it at all.  -Dan Gable

CorpRaider

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #18 on: July 09, 2019, 07:55:45 AM »
Would you say this could serve as an approachable "gateway book" to like the Kahneman and Tversky, et. al. work on cognitive errors and system 1 versus system 2 thinking, etc..?   

Convexity

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #19 on: July 09, 2019, 12:56:12 PM »
Would you say this could serve as an approachable "gateway book" to like the Kahneman and Tversky, et. al. work on cognitive errors and system 1 versus system 2 thinking, etc..?   

She references Kahneman a little.   It is absolutely approachable and there isn't much science to the text itself.  It is not a "dense" read, so you can think about the concepts she introduces during the plethora of anecdotes subsequently put forth.

One detracting item is that the book felt repetitive to me (but I am no expert in cognitive psychology and maybe I just missed the difference between some concepts).