Author Topic: Fairfax-Blackberry tie up  (Read 2882 times)

Dazel

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Fairfax-Blackberry tie up
« on: September 25, 2019, 11:03:40 AM »
Does taking Blackberry private now make sense for Fairfax? It makes a hell of a lot more sense now than it did then. Onex made their biggest return ever on Celestica when they took it public. Times are similar now than they were Celestica went public...ie Crowdstrike.
There is a margin of safety in the fact firms would be lined up to buy the new Blackberry (no one wanted it when they made their last offer as risks were very high...right now they really could not loose taking it private.

I was very critical of John Chen on the Blackberry thread but they are dealing with a market who does not know what Blackberry does or how to value it!? CNBC called them a ďsmart phone makerĒ yesterday when they were down 22%!!! They donít have an identity in the public markets and everyone knows that. Fairfax could do very well in a taking private transaction and Blackberry shareholders are just DONE...they want out and as far away as possible.

Fairfax does not have a lot of opportunities right now they are loaded with cash and would be able to do a deal as it would no longer be a marketable security (down 50% this year)! So it helps with capital as well...on the tak8ng private price and becomes a sub of the company. They would be a white night in sheepís clothing...kinda like Mr. Buffett.


This I an old headline!!! Below.....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/blackberry-to-be-sold-to-group-led-by-fairfax-financial-1.1864922

Dicsclosure
I have not talked to Fairfax or Blackberry and I am buying shares because I think it is a no brainer for all involved...even if it is someone else who decides To take advantage of the Blackberrry discount.


Dazel.


finetrader

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Re: Fairfax-Blackberry tie up
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2019, 12:27:00 PM »
it could be.

I find it hard myself to figure out what  is the FCF potential for BB.
Live to invest, invest to live

Dazel

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Re: Fairfax-Blackberry tie up
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2019, 06:09:47 PM »


Think Microsoft

Dazel

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Re: Fairfax-Blackberry tie up
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2019, 06:41:29 PM »

If you have been watching Mr. Buffett and the second biggest holder of stock at Berkshire (yes more than mr. mungerJ...Bill said that software is a really good business...actually if you get it right it is the best business...Microsoft has become a behemoth again....Fairfax or someone else has a shot here itís free!

StubbleJumper

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Re: Fairfax-Blackberry tie up
« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2019, 06:38:01 AM »

If you have been watching Mr. Buffett and the second biggest holder of stock at Berkshire (yes more than mr. mungerJ...Bill said that software is a really good business...actually if you get it right it is the best business...Microsoft has become a behemoth again....Fairfax or someone else has a shot here itís free!


And if you get it wrong, it's a zero.  The industry is littered with the carcasses of former flagship products.

After that observation, I will now return to my other work, using WordPerfect and Lotus123 to do some analysis which I will send to somebody using NetScape.  :-)


SJ


SJ

Dazel

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Re: Fairfax-Blackberry tie up
« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2019, 06:47:38 AM »


Lol SJ.

Do you know that Canadian and U.S military have no choice but to use Blackberry for security? Itís not Lotus...but I get your point.

The IP alone is very valuable.

Dazel

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Re: Fairfax-Blackberry tie up
« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2019, 08:05:44 AM »
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/fairfax-watsa-lost-121-million-164238512.html

Odd that Fairfax responded. However, Fairfax stock price and investor confidence in their investing ability has fallen evidenced by this board. Time to create value Fairfax you know you have the ability letís see some action....Blackberry is in a classic value position that needs a shareholder to push it....or buy it and create value for Fairfax shareholders...I am both.


Disclosure I continue to buy Blackberry....and am a Fairfax shareholder as well.



Crip1

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Re: Fairfax-Blackberry tie up
« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2019, 07:41:26 PM »
Full disclosure, this is well outside of my circle of competence.
For the past several years Iíve read about BBís strength being the security of their platform. Actually have friends who work at banks where they are required to use BB phones because of that. They all carry two phones (work and personal) accordingly. Where Iím skeptical is that none of the big boys in the software/mobile phone industries have, as far as I know, tried to purchase the company, or even something close to a controlling stake. One has to think that if the platform was valuable, then those who are familiar with the business would have long ago bought out BB. Granted itís cheaper now than itís been in forever, but nothing suggests that there is enough value there to warrant a buyout.
-Crip

Dazel

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Re: Fairfax-Blackberry tie up
« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2019, 05:40:24 AM »

Crip1...agreed.
How can a company who has every major global bank, airline, and the U.S military as a client be virtually unknown as a security company? Fairfax and Chen have to see this...it is crazy.
Sales multiples to market cap  for competitors
Blackberry 3x
Crowdstrike 35x
Sales force 8x
Microsoft 8x
Datadog 35x
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/datadog-raises-648-million-u-135726259.html


chrispy

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Re: Fairfax-Blackberry tie up
« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2019, 05:51:00 AM »
Grouping all "tech" companies together is like grouping all real estate holdings together. A portfolio of NYC is not comparable to one of Cincinnati