Author Topic: Fairfax return over the next 10 years  (Read 6407 times)

Viking

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Re: Fairfax return over the next 10 years
« Reply #20 on: June 12, 2019, 10:19:00 AM »
I was likely one of the people who voted back in 2009 :-)

The lesson for me is as follows:
- you make decisions (and projections) based on the facts you have on hand at the time
- when the facts change you may need to change your mind

After 2009 FFH made some very big bets with the investment portfolio that proved to be flat out wrong. These bets were plain for all investors to see.

The lesson for me is not that projections often do not work out as expected (this is kind of obvious). The lesson for me is the important over time of processing new information and acting on it (if it is important). The opposite of thumb sucking.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 10:40:13 AM by Viking »


Jurgis

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Re: Fairfax return over the next 10 years
« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2019, 10:38:41 PM »
Feel free to start a new 10 year return poll and we can see the results in 10 years.

I would be willing to bet real money that Fairfax return will be below 15% annual for next 10 years.

What are the odds you are offering?

70-30.

But I won't make a real bet since (a) there's no platform that I'd trust (b) if bet amount would have to be pre-deposited, it's a negative return even if I win.
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
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bizaro86

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Re: Fairfax return over the next 10 years
« Reply #22 on: June 13, 2019, 07:24:19 AM »
Feel free to start a new 10 year return poll and we can see the results in 10 years.

I would be willing to bet real money that Fairfax return will be below 15% annual for next 10 years.

What are the odds you are offering?

70-30.

But I won't make a real bet since (a) there's no platform that I'd trust (b) if bet amount would have to be pre-deposited, it's a negative return even if I win.

B isn't true if the two people betting can agree on a suitable investment to keep the funds that they would otherwise both hold.

When Buffett made his hedge fund vs S&P bet, they put the money in zero coupon treasuries, and then switched to BRK after treasuries rocketed, and did very well.

Surely there would be some compounder the two parties could agree on...


Jurgis

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Re: Fairfax return over the next 10 years
« Reply #23 on: June 13, 2019, 07:50:38 AM »
Feel free to start a new 10 year return poll and we can see the results in 10 years.

I would be willing to bet real money that Fairfax return will be below 15% annual for next 10 years.

What are the odds you are offering?

70-30.

But I won't make a real bet since (a) there's no platform that I'd trust (b) if bet amount would have to be pre-deposited, it's a negative return even if I win.

B isn't true if the two people betting can agree on a suitable investment to keep the funds that they would otherwise both hold.

When Buffett made his hedge fund vs S&P bet, they put the money in zero coupon treasuries, and then switched to BRK after treasuries rocketed, and did very well.

Surely there would be some compounder the two parties could agree on...

Fair enough. We could deposit money into Fairfax... ... ...  ::)  8)
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
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"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"

StevieV

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Re: Fairfax return over the next 10 years
« Reply #24 on: June 13, 2019, 07:57:09 AM »
As long as we are speculating, I would certainly take the under on 15% compounded over the next 10 years.  If you gave me 7% I would take the over.  It gets murkier from there.  I would not bet real money on this, but I guess that is where I see the likely range of returns.

longinvestor

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Re: Fairfax return over the next 10 years
« Reply #25 on: June 13, 2019, 12:24:09 PM »
More than anonymous  posters with aliases on a public forum getting it wrong, I wish the CEO would refrain from making public statements about specific future returns. I was a Fairfax shareholder in 2009 and was a happy one based on the turn of events of 2005-09 and still had mixed feelings about Prem making such projections. It just is not good practice. Those words do tend to haunt. Keeping your head down and running your business well is better. Surely Fairfax has done some really good things with their business since 2009. I just see this as another “macro” call which they got wrong. It’s akin to an unforced error.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 01:12:58 PM by longinvestor »

Cardboard

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Re: Fairfax return over the next 10 years
« Reply #26 on: June 14, 2019, 05:46:10 AM »
LOL!

Then you never end praising Buffett for saying that Berkshire will keep beating the S&P.  ::)

Seriously, any worthwhile organization needs to set targets. It is an essential part of good management. In this case they badly missed so either the target is wrong and/or the execution.

Cardboard