Author Topic: Fairfax stock positions  (Read 6431 times)

petec

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1805
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2019, 02:48:03 AM »
Don’t forget Kennedy Wilson Holdings....

Good point. I haven't read much on it for a while. Will do so and revert.

I've also reordered the stocks to reflect current size. In total this lot adds up to about $5.4bn (I may have some of the share counts wrong given how they are spread across subsidiaries).

Edited for KW and with an additional observation at the bottom.


Dazel

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 247
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2019, 05:02:13 AM »
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/seaspan-announces-closing-second-500-000000115.html

This has been very profitable so far and has increased the investment portfolio’s yield on a billion dollars. I would imagine “any” sort of trade deal would be material to Seaspan and this investment.

petec

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1805
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2019, 06:15:02 AM »
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/seaspan-announces-closing-second-500-000000115.html

This has been very profitable so far and has increased the investment portfolio’s yield on a billion dollars. I would imagine “any” sort of trade deal would be material to Seaspan and this investment.

Trade deal?

Yes, the options were at phenomenal prices.

petec

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1805
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2019, 01:22:32 PM »
Fairfax’s two biggest positions - Eurobank (proforma for the merger) and BlackBerry (assuming conversion) are on a tear this year. Eurobank produced good results with an excellent outlook; BlackBerry produced excellent results today.

investmd

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 128
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2019, 03:59:35 PM »
Fairfax’s two biggest positions - Eurobank (proforma for the merger) and BlackBerry (assuming conversion) are on a tear this year. Eurobank produced good results with an excellent outlook; BlackBerry produced excellent results today.

Petec,
Thank you very much for sharing this analysis. Over past 5 years, insurance business operating results appear solid  but there has been essentially little change in market value of FFH. Going forward, hopefully Eurobank, Seaspan and Blackberry can drive equity investments results upwards and reflect in a substantial increase in market value. My expected outcome for investing is that FFH market value should increase AT LEAST 50% over MOST 5 year periods without including dividend payouts.

Doesn't seem like hope for significant stock buybacks will come to fruition. However, with good combo of insurance business and equity results, FFH should be in a position to deliver.

obtuse_investor

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 380
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2019, 02:08:21 PM »
Just to normalize, 50% over a 5 year period is 8.44% annualized return.

I don't think anyone who owns FFH is expecting annual returns less than 10%. Maybe that is because of the 15% anchoring management has been doing.

Value Investor who manages his personal portfolio with a 25-45 year time horizon | @obtuse_investor

shalab

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1147
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2019, 05:50:51 PM »
People holding FRFHF have been very happy so far - it has essentially been flat for the past five years with a dividend yield of 2%/annum. As Biglari has shown, it is not the returns that matter, it is the ability to sell a story that does.

Just to normalize, 50% over a 5 year period is 8.44% annualized return.

I don't think anyone who owns FFH is expecting annual returns less than 10%. Maybe that is because of the 15% anchoring management has been doing.

petec

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1805
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #17 on: April 16, 2019, 05:46:37 AM »
By my maths the top 4 positions are now:

$1bn Eurobank/Grivalia, which could have a long way yet to run.
$930m Blackberry (including the convertible at par) which seems to be gaining operating momentum.
$820m Seaspan (not including $500m of debt, but including the profit on the exercise of the third tranche of options, which are in the money).
$700m ICICI Lombard which has had a terrific run and which I suspect they might sell.

petec

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1805
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #18 on: April 27, 2019, 02:15:34 PM »
Brief update on Resolute, which has slowly been sorting out its balance sheet:

FY18 ebitda: $570m.
FY18 FCF: $280m.
YE18 net debt: $340m.
Market cap: $700m.
FY19/20 consensus ebitda: $400m (ev/ebitda: 2.5x).
FY19/20 consensus FCF: $170m (FCF yield: 24%).

The glitch is that the pension liability is $1.25bn - if you include that the forecasted ev/ebitda is 5.5x.

Horrible industry and consensus is clearly forecasting that 2018's operating performance can't be sustained, but it feels like last year's $136m special dividend might not be a one-off. Fairfax owns an eyewatering 33.5%, worth $240m, and their share of the special was $45m.

petec

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1805
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #19 on: May 31, 2019, 08:41:37 AM »
Eurobank (including Grivalia) is off to the races. $1.2bn position now and still very cheap.