Author Topic: Good blog post on FFH  (Read 43691 times)

50centdollars

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Grenville

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Re: Good blog post on FFH
« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2014, 09:51:43 AM »
Very nice! Enjoyed the read and analysis. I'm glad he decided to write a post with his thoughts. Thanks AZ Value!

Liberty

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Re: Good blog post on FFH
« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2014, 09:52:26 AM »
Thanks 50cent and AZ Value.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

glavacem

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Re: Good blog post on FFH
« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2014, 10:10:52 AM »


Very well thought out post. It does make one think.

obtuse_investor

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Re: Good blog post on FFH
« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2014, 10:10:58 AM »
Excellent post.  Thanks!
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TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Good blog post on FFH
« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2014, 10:26:52 AM »
Great post to get us bulls to consider the flip side of the argument. You've connected some dots that I failed to connect myself and make a compelling case.

I have one nitpicky piece of feedback:
When discussing U.S. debt/GDP you show a graph of the leverage of government debt to GDP. This seems reasonable but I believe it's incorrect. I don't have proof on hand but I'm pretty sure Prem was referencing total debt (private, corporate, and public). The picture is a lot different when you consider all three.

Also, I haven't run the numbers myself, but are the calculations if actual book value growth inclusive of the CDX bets that Watsa typically excludes? If so, I believe this should be reevaluated.
Thanks for the thoughts
« Last Edit: April 10, 2014, 10:29:52 AM by zachmansell »

shalab

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Ravi

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Re: Good blog post on FFH
« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2014, 12:19:10 PM »
Fantastic write up. Agree to many things. Hopefully Prem can fix some of the things

learner

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Re: Good blog post on FFH
« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2014, 12:35:16 PM »
Great writeup.

tiddman

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Re: Good blog post on FFH
« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2014, 12:40:31 PM »
Thank you, this is a good article and it reflects / restates many of the questions I have had about Fairfax's "hedges".

The idea that Fairfax is being forced to sell its core long term equity holdings in order to satisfy cash calls for its hedges does ring true, and would be very worrisome if accurate.  Even more worrisome would be if Watsa is not highlighting this since it has a significant effect on their investment returns and performance.