Author Topic: Results out  (Read 6573 times)



Viking

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Re: Results out
« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2019, 03:52:09 PM »
“Book value per basic share at December 31, 2018 was $432.46 compared to $449.55 at December 31, 2017 (a decrease of 1.5% adjusted for the $10 per common share dividend paid in the first quarter of 2018).”

Investment results continue to drag on results. I wonder if they remain as bullish on Trump and still expect great things from equities the next couple of years.

Santayana

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Re: Results out
« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2019, 03:57:45 PM »
When you look at what the overall markets did last quarter, it's hard to imagine anyone having good investment results.   The California fires didn't help the overall results for the quarter either.

obtuse_investor

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Re: Results out
« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2019, 04:36:44 PM »
In Q4 2018, "short equity exposure" was down $84.9M! I wonder what's in there.
Value Investor who manages his personal portfolio with a 25-45 year time horizon | @obtuse_investor

Viking

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Re: Results out
« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2019, 10:14:16 PM »
When you look at what the overall markets did last quarter, it's hard to imagine anyone having good investment results.   The California fires didn't help the overall results for the quarter either.

True. But FFH growing book value in a meaningful way (which will then drive the stock price) is tied to them being positioned correctly with their investment portfolio. The company recently completely reversed their investment orientation and expressed a great deal of optomism in the future with Trump as President. They are not short term thinkers so they must have thought stocks had many years of solid returns ahead. 2018 was not a good year for financial markets. With the global economy slowing, including the US, 2019 might be another tough year for financial markets. If so, this will be a continuing headwind for FFH.

steph

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Re: Results out
« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2019, 11:35:58 PM »
Not too bad. I was expecting worse.  Insurance is good. Bonds well managed. Equities are a drag but was expected.  All in all rather reassuring.

Dazel

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Re: Results out
« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2019, 12:25:06 AM »

They did not take the big shot I thought they might but they took bonds too almost $20b so the composition matters....

petec

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Re: Results out
« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2019, 12:52:55 AM »
The company recently completely reversed their investment orientation and expressed a great deal of optomism in the future with Trump as President. They are not short term thinkers so they must have thought stocks had many years of solid returns ahead.

Go back over the calls. I think you'll find that's not what they thought, not what they said, and not how they acted. They said Trump would kick start animal spirits in the US economy, which reduced the global depression risk for which they were hedged. So they took the hedges off. They were quite explicit that they were not bullish on equities as a whole, and they acted accordingly, keeping vast amounts of cash. Instead, they said they thought it would be a good stockpicker's market, with good individual stock opportunities. I took this to mean they expected more volatile internals.

I'd argue they've been more or less spot on so far, but the point is their major action was to take off the hedges, not to go all-in on stocks generally.



Spekulatius

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Re: Results out
« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2019, 04:22:54 AM »
The  insurance business has done quite well with a combined ratio of 98.3%. The investment side continues to suck wind. I have reduced my exposure to FFH after some considerations. I would be quite happy to hold FFH, if they would just stick with bond investments like other plain vanilla insurance corporations.

I am sure the book value has recovered some since 12/31 due to equities bouncing back, but so has the PPS. I don’t feel like their equity investment are set to perform well going forward though.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

WneverLOSE

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Re: Results out
« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2019, 04:43:08 AM »
Any way to listen to the conference call without actually calling the number for a playback ?
Not only it is very expensive to overseas investors but it is very inconvenient to sit for an hour on the phone.

am I missing something or is fairfax basically the only company that doesn't provide a transcript / playback on their website ?