Author Topic: 1999 again?  (Read 19205 times)

RuleNumberOne

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 162
Re: 1999 again?
« Reply #20 on: June 21, 2019, 08:50:53 AM »
Yeah, who knows. If Jim Bullard or Jim Cramer get appointed as the next Fed Chair, 100x sales may become the new norm. This is not euphoric enough yet ...

Let me edit my comment. Just read that Kashkari announced on Bloomberg that he wanted a 50bp cut at this meeting itself.

Kashkari is the new front-runner for the next Fed Chair and 150x sales may become the new norm.

« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 08:53:49 AM by RuleNumberOne »


Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11332
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
Re: 1999 again?
« Reply #21 on: June 21, 2019, 10:54:23 AM »
For the folks who think this is 1999 all over, were you investing in 1999?

I can tell you, this is no where near as euphoric as then. Will the market crash? No idea but we are not in euphoria.

In the past 9 months we've had a 20% correction and a 6% correction (with some sub-sectors moving a lot more than that), bond yield curve is inverting and everybody is talking about a recession... Agreed, not 1999 euphoria at all.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Gregmal

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1905
Re: 1999 again?
« Reply #22 on: June 21, 2019, 11:45:13 AM »
IMO people are just using the bubble narrative to justify shitty investment returns. I remember Einhorn whining about a "bubble" and "froth" in like 2013...Marc Faber back in 2011... clearly they've just been WRONG

RichardGibbons

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 655
Re: 1999 again?
« Reply #23 on: June 21, 2019, 12:06:05 PM »
So who are all those optimistic people pushing the sp500 higher and investing in Beyond Meat and stuff??? Where are they hiding?

One of my friends bought Beyond Meat a week or two ago. He's new to investing. I think his reasoning is that the stock is going up, it's a great story, it's comparable to a tech stock, and he's confident he can get out when it starts to go down.

Personally, I think he has no clue how terrible the likely outcomes are of owning a stock in an industry with tiny gross margins at a P/S ratio of 80.  For a tech stock with a moat, recurring revenue, 80% gross margins, and 80%+ growth rate for several years, P/S ratios in the 20-30 range can make sense.  But not in a food stock.

jmp8822

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 159
Re: 1999 again?
« Reply #24 on: June 21, 2019, 01:06:50 PM »
Market-cap to GDP is very near the all time high set in 1999-2000.

Is there euphoria? Perhaps not, but price is what matters, in my opinion. And the price looks high.

https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

John Hjorth

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2667
Re: 1999 again?
« Reply #25 on: June 21, 2019, 01:10:48 PM »
For the folks who think this is 1999 all over, were you investing in 1999?

I can tell you, this is no where near as euphoric as then. Will the market crash? No idea but we are not in euphoria.

This post by Paul combined with the last post by Richard brings up a question for Paul:

Wikipedia : Euphoria

Isen't there an element of multidimensional relativity to the phenomen? -I mean :

1. It can be related to several kinds of activity, ref. the Wikipedia article,
2. Some persons engage in it, some don't [, perhaps because the euphoria isn't triggered or an effort is done keep it under control].

In casu for Paul, I think that it's likely that 20+ years of investment experience has made Paul less detached to things going in certain areas in the stock market, i.e. - & here, - under the tech bubble in 1999? [Meant as another way of saying : "Paul does not "feel" [perhaps the word "perceive" would be better] the euphoria because he "minds his own business" to a greater extent than earlier with regard to investing, likely based on experience & training."]
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

Castanza

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 385
Re: 1999 again?
« Reply #26 on: June 21, 2019, 01:35:00 PM »
So who are all those optimistic people pushing the sp500 higher and investing in Beyond Meat and stuff??? Where are they hiding?

Well there is about 573k hiding in the Wallstreetbets sub on Reddit. And a few million more scattered across the site. Truly entertaining to see their logic and reasoning.

SHDL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 413
Re: 1999 again?
« Reply #27 on: June 21, 2019, 01:57:52 PM »
Market-cap to GDP is very near the all time high set in 1999-2000.

Is there euphoria? Perhaps not, but price is what matters, in my opinion. And the price looks high.

https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

Yes, this is probably the most important similarity.  The second most important similarity I think is this huge wave of IPOs, which strongly suggests that insiders and other very well-informed people think this is a great market to sell into.

stahleyp

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2923
Re: 1999 again?
« Reply #28 on: June 21, 2019, 02:22:03 PM »
You guys very well be right but we shall see.

P/E, dividend yield all still look a lot better than in 1999. Heck, even the Buffett's market cap to gnp is lower now vs then. That's not even including the low interest rates... which are much, much lower than they were then.

If everyone is so euphoric, shouldn't we expect to see these measures in a similar euphoric range?

With that said, hopefully the market drops 50% from here.

Hmmm...maybe we are getting a bit crazy here. ;)

Check this out:

https://www.cnbc.com/id/100991598
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 02:57:34 PM by stahleyp »
Paul

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11332
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
Re: 1999 again?
« Reply #29 on: June 21, 2019, 04:00:35 PM »
Market-cap to GDP is very near the all time high set in 1999-2000.

Is there euphoria? Perhaps not, but price is what matters, in my opinion. And the price looks high.

https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

Is that metric useful? US companies are much more global than they were.

https://twitter.com/teasri/status/1142201221626941440?s=21
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 06:21:44 PM by Liberty »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen