Author Topic: Best Ideas For 2019  (Read 17059 times)

undervalued

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Re: Best Ideas For 2019
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2018, 09:36:48 PM »
I
Like you, my longstanding Flybe holding has been a gold medal winning downhiller, but I don't have the bravery to add to it.

I'm sure 2019's biggest winner will be something like Flybe -- an existential risk that never materializes -- or something highly levered.  For the same reasons, I suspect I won't own it.

My position that most resembles that description is Bri-Chem [BRY.TO]. It trades at less than 50% of NCAV, so there is certainly room for a double. They kitchen-sinked their last quarter, so just about anything will be viewed as an improvement next quarter. I think the risk-reward here is very good, but zero is on the table so it isn't a huge position.

Probably my current best idea is Labrador Iron [LIF.TO]. Premiums for high quality ore are very high, and the market has missed how much it'll help them because of the strike (resolved). Could easily end up paying $4 or more in dividends next year on a $27.50 price.

Since we're talking about best ideas that can go down to zero or double or better, I'll add FNMAS onto the list. We're 'hoping' housing will be the priority in 2019 and Mnuchin will resolve the lawsuits.
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers


roughlyright

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Re: Best Ideas For 2019
« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2018, 12:42:05 AM »
My pick for 2019 is Genesis Vision. Currently trading at $12. Market cap is $53 million. Today they have launched the Genesis Vision network. I wrote an article on Medium today describing why it makes sense.

https://medium.com/@samikkurty/genesis-vision-platform-launch-2226a6a7651

Gamecock-YT

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Re: Best Ideas For 2019
« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2018, 07:34:14 PM »
I've said cash the past 3 years, so maybe a contra move to suggest something different: Product Tankers

If you want low debt, likely to survive if rates stay low: Ardmore Shipping $ASC

If you want an equity stub, with shady family insider transactions: Scorpio Tankers $STNG


Order book for product tankers has been at all time lows so whenever this thing turns it's going to go up like a rocket with demand outpacing supply. Which a catalyst is likely to be IMO 2020 where all shipping vessels will have to use low sulfur fuels so there's likely to be a demand spike as ports stock up ahead of the transition on Jan 1, 2020.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4216449-scorpio-tankers-inc-stng-ceo-emanuele-lauro-q3-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript

STNG had a call this week where they're seeing green shoots, rates are off all time lows.

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The message is that markets have moved positively in the last few weeks. In some markets, these moves are quite considerable and more substantial than we have indeed seen with these many quarters. Fundamentally, we’re seeing structural change with increased capacity utilization levels. This will benefit markets positively as we move into 2019 against the backdrop of benign new tonnage supply.

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We are experiencing a very early seasonal upswing too. Normally, this product market doesn't stop to get moving until really mid to late November and it's starting up a very strong platform now in any context at all, even in years where the product market has actually been strong, right to have really been this strong at this point prior to Thanksgiving and the winter season starting.

KJP

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Re: Best Ideas For 2019
« Reply #13 on: December 25, 2018, 09:00:48 AM »
Any further thoughts given the recent declines? 

I'll reiterate my suggestion of Parkit.  See its thread for recent developments.  A sale of the Canopy lot would be a significant catalyst, assuming the bottom has fallen out of its performance or cap rates for parking lots. 

For a larger cap, I nominate NVR, but that contains an embedded macro call that new single-family house sales in the US won't decline in 2019.  I don't see any hard catalyst that would prevent NVR from staying cheap in 2019 even if the US housing market holds up, but there is the soft catalyst of large share repurchases.

EDIT:  I'll add another:  Command Center (CCNI).  See the thread for reasons why.  I believe 2019 will see continued significant buybacks and perhaps more, given the make up of the board. 

I'll also confess that when judged against the criteria of (i) underlying business quality, (ii) current valuation, and (iii) potential catalysts, these are all B-level ideas at best.  I don't have what I believe to be an A-level idea. 
« Last Edit: December 25, 2018, 09:30:09 AM by KJP »

no_free_lunch

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Re: Best Ideas For 2019
« Reply #14 on: December 25, 2018, 09:06:22 AM »
I really like GUD.TO right here.  It is around 1.1x book value with a large portion of book in cash.  It seems that the selloff in pharma is beneficial as they are sitting on so much cash.  I think some of the smaller companies will start to get hungry and knight should be able to scoop up some good deals.  After BRK/BAM it is my largest position.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2018, 10:31:19 AM by no_free_lunch »

writser

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Re: Best Ideas For 2019
« Reply #15 on: December 25, 2018, 10:10:20 AM »
I still like Conduril, Asta Funding, Retail Holdings, a few Japan stocks, some Italian real estate funds. No class A ideas either. Maybe BDMS is my favorite idea right now but that should work out in a few weeks. Not sure if that counts.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2018, 03:53:18 PM by writser »
When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.

cameronfen

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Re: Best Ideas For 2019
« Reply #16 on: December 25, 2018, 02:41:16 PM »
I like intelsat and rimini street.  intelsat owns lots of spectrum, and is trading at levels before all the positive rulings out of the FCC.  Bond markets have already reacted positively, but equity holders are a bit slow it seems...  See kerisdales thesis on SA.  rimini good too but dont have time right now to describe as I'm writing this in the restroom of fogo de Chao.  (family dinner).

awindenberger

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Re: Best Ideas For 2019
« Reply #17 on: December 25, 2018, 06:56:47 PM »
I'm still doing my DD on these companies, but given the massive losses they've taken in just the last 2 months, I think that US Natural Gas upstream producers are undervalued. I'm bullish on NatGas breaking out of its 2.50-3.00 long term range to $4+ in 2019 or 2020, which would be a significant tailwind for these companies. And right now most of them look as cheap as they've ever been.

Biglari Holdings (BH, BH/A) is currently trading at 0.7x book value, but owns close to 50% of its own shares, so its really closer to 0.35x book. Of course its trading down there because Sardar Biglari controls over 50% of the voting stock and I might be the only living person remaining that still believes he will deliver long term out-performance.

Still, the value of the shares are significantly less than the value of their CBRL stake, a stake Biglari has started monetizing over the past few weeks.

Note that Biglari has been buying BH and BH/A shares in his personal accounts recently.

SharperDingaan

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Re: Best Ideas For 2019
« Reply #18 on: December 26, 2018, 05:47:30 AM »
Heresy ... but pretty much any intermediate in the WCSB (WCP, OBE, PD, etc).
With pipeline/rail capacity coming back by 2019 year-end, it's pretty hard to see how some of these do not at least double.

SD

petec

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Re: Best Ideas For 2019
« Reply #19 on: December 26, 2018, 09:15:41 AM »
Heresy ... but pretty much any intermediate in the WCSB (WCP, OBE, PD, etc).
With pipeline/rail capacity coming back by 2019 year-end, it's pretty hard to see how some of these do not at least double.

SD

SD sorry for my ignorance but what’s the capacity that’s coming back?