Author Topic: CoBF members 2018 returns  (Read 15368 times)

clutch

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #30 on: January 01, 2019, 12:08:43 PM »
My returns (first) are in Canadian and time-weighted. The benchmark returns (second) are for VFV.TO, which is an S&P500 index ETF in Canadian. They are also time-weighted, assuming I buy/sell VFV.TO every time I make a contribution or withdrawal. I think this method of comparison is the most accurate for me, a casual investor who is trying to see if I can beat simple indexing.

2018: -10.8% vs. -2.8%
2017: +6.5% vs. +10.7%
2016: +19.0% vs. +7.7%

cumulative: +13.0% vs. +15.9%

So, I'm basically underperforming. I have been trying active stock picking for about three years now. I'm giving myself two more years to outperform the index on the cumulative basis or else I will switch back to indexing!  8)
« Last Edit: January 01, 2019, 12:11:13 PM by clutch »


hillfronter83

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #31 on: January 01, 2019, 12:39:36 PM »
About 3.5% for the year. Lost money on many of my long positions. At the end of the day, special situation and a couple of acquired stocks saved me from overall loss.

John Hjorth

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #32 on: January 01, 2019, 12:41:52 PM »
My returns (first) are in Canadian and time-weighted. The benchmark returns (second) are for VFV.TO, which is an S&P500 index ETF in Canadian. They are also time-weighted, assuming I buy/sell VFV.TO every time I make a contribution or withdrawal. I think this method of comparison is the most accurate for me, a casual investor who is trying to see if I can beat simple indexing.

2018: -10.8% vs. -2.8%
2017: +6.5% vs. +10.7%
2016: +19.0% vs. +7.7%

cumulative: +13.0% vs. +15.9%

So, I'm basically underperforming. I have been trying active stock picking for about three years now. I'm giving myself two more years to outperform the index on the cumulative basis or else I will switch back to indexing!  8)

clutch,

There is so much to it. I've had the same thoughts about 1 - 2 years ago. I ended up leaving that line of thinking, - for good. In short, you'll have a better existence & life as an - perhaps - underperforming & stockpicking investor, than being an index investor. Where there sure is material positions in the index of your choice, that you do not like. [Which can actually be much more stressing for you [as a CoBF member] than the average investor.].
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

Hielko

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #33 on: January 01, 2019, 12:47:15 PM »
Managed 13.1% in euro (probably a few percentage points lower in USD). Pretty happy with it, although I do think there were some things that I could have done better.

investor-man

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #34 on: January 01, 2019, 01:46:16 PM »
3.4% I'm shocked frankly. Thought I'd be negative. I was up about 33% in June
Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #3 "Never spend more for an acquisition than you have to."

aceskc

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #35 on: January 01, 2019, 03:20:30 PM »
2014:20%   
2015:-4%   
2016: 39%   
2017: 11%   
2018: 68%
5 year CAGR: 24.3%

Concentration worked out very well for us in 2018, as I felt safer in our best idea in a richly priced market. Bought heavily into CMG when the stock fell around the $250 mark and took those proceeds and pilled them into BRK in the mid 180s to low 190s.

orthopa

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #36 on: January 01, 2019, 05:20:31 PM »
23.5% 2018
-7.7%. 2019

Being long tobacco this year hurt overall returns big time but will be able to reinvest dividends and much lower prices now. Still have 14% of portfolio in GSE preferred which will hopefully really juice returns this year (fingers crossed). Otherwise has been a drag or essentially like holding cash as price hasnt moved much in years.

Gregmal

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #37 on: January 01, 2019, 05:45:50 PM »
All combined probably somewhere mid-high teens. Don't care enough to tally everything up, never really have. To me the idea of talking about your returns on the internet is useless. It's like talking about your dick size in high school. Everyone likes to, but it only matters once you take the leap and can prove it with action.

Anyhow, I  typically run very concentrated and MSG, HTL had solid years. Went into year, and exited year with FRP Holdings as top 5 position, but spent 80% of the year not in the top 5, which kind of highlights the type of year it was. Trading was were one needed to be this year to really get alpha.

GM and CTO continue to be perpetual disappointments.

DocSnowball

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #38 on: January 02, 2019, 08:09:13 AM »
2018: -19%
2017: 7%
2016: 192%


Antibiotic companies lost more than bitcoin in 2018, down >90% from 2016 highs despite FDA approvals in 2018 - a painful learning experience although the story is not over. Happy to be learning everyday and grateful for the CoBF learning community.

Dynamic

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #39 on: January 02, 2019, 10:02:33 AM »
I was lucky enough to enjoy a positive year from equities alone in both GBP (a 7.65% tailwind as GBP weakened) and USD, and also to do even better with an alternative investment opportunity for which I withdrew some funds, albeit producing taxable gains that my spouse and I will each need to pay a very modest tax rate on by 31 Jan 2020, unless I end up realising a lot of losses by April 5th 2019 when the UK tax year ends. I think I was very very lucky with timing on more than one occasion and benefited from a little skill in assessing the upside versus downside potential of what to sell and what to buy to increase the quality and the Intrinsic Value of my portfolio, probably by about 10-12% more than the market value increased, while reducing the downside risks in time and being lucky enough to obtain a good cash exposure in time for the 4th quarter bear market.

The only tax paid so far was 30% US withholding tax on WFC, IBM and AAPL dividends within our tax-free ISA accounts in the first part of the year, as the provider doesn't support W-8BEN filing and their fees made were so much cheaper than alternative brokers that do support W-8BEN that it was a wash over the 2 years or so I held those three positions.

Sold WFC@$55.70 and IBM@$151.50 in early Feb 2018, realising tax-free gains but having underperformed the S&P500 Total Return (SP500TR) with both positions, luckily modest in size and bought with a bit of margin of safety. Bought BRK.B at $192.69 with new money plus the proceeds of these sales.

Topped up my BRK.B position slightly with more new cash in late March and early April around $195-$196, yet cheaper than the $198 paid in Dec 2017 as the pound had strengthened and dollar weakened at that stage.

Sold my entire AAPL position on 24th May @$188.42, realising large tax-free capital gains of about 90%. If it weren't for needing the cash to withdraw and put into the alternative opportunity, I probably would have held a bit longer before I felt the price/intrinsic value ratio for BRK.B (fairly tight IV distribution) and for AAPL (slightly fuzzier IV distribution) was clear and wide enough to convince me to overcome my 'hysteresis' and make a Value Trade from one to the other, especially with what I felt was superior downside protection but still compound growth in BRK.B, but I had been thinking about where I should make such a trade for some months, which could probably occurred either with BRK.B in the $186-$188 region in July, while AAPL was near $200, or perhaps in September with BRK.B in the high $190s and AAPL around the $220 region, which would roughly have accorded with me feeling that I was getting more IV than I was giving up by a sufficient margin to be worth making the Value Trade.

Also trimmed my BRK.B position to raise the remaining funds for the alternative opportunity in July/August. Realised substantial cash proceeds surprisingly quickly in time for the latest market dive, and got fully invested in the December bear market partly via some AAPL, BAC and WFC put contracts. Ended up realising modest losses on the AAPL and WFC (one was actually a tiny gain in GBP thanks to the exchange rate change in the meantime) to take advantage of particularly good prices on BRK.B lately, which saw gains to year end, and avoided the worst of the further AAPL decline. Now very slightly on margin, and exiting gradually by writing covered Calls at a range of strike prices and expiry dates, some already exercised and some due mid-January, which will either provide a good annualised return in premiums or will let me sell my excess BAC shares around the price I entered at. I might even roll the calls as they near expiry to obtain further option premium income and a higher eventual exit price, if the market moves suitably. Hat tip to boilermaker75 for the put/call writing methods of entering and trimming positions, which I feel I'm getting to grips with and benefiting from.