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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: LC on May 15, 2019, 08:31:24 AM

Title: Consumer credit trends
Post by: LC on May 15, 2019, 08:31:24 AM
A good update:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-15/millennials-are-helping-to-sound-the-credit-card-alarm?srnd=premium

First, the charge-off rate among card issuers in the first quarter increased to the highest level in almost seven years

Discover CEO Roger Hochschild told Surane in an interview that “in general, we have been contracting credit policy at the margin and tightening” because of the length of the economic expansion.

Some 8.05% of outstanding credit card debt among Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 was delinquent by at least 90 days, the highest level since early 2011

The New York Fed report noted that the number of credit inquiries in the past six months, an indicator of demand for credit among consumers, fell to the lowest level since the data begin.


Title: Re: Consumer credit trends
Post by: Jurgis on May 15, 2019, 08:43:03 AM
After a drought of offers in 2016-17, I'm now getting a bunch of open-cc-get-$500 offers that I'm too cheap to refuse.  ::)
Title: Re: Consumer credit trends
Post by: Schwab711 on May 15, 2019, 09:48:04 AM
A good update:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-15/millennials-are-helping-to-sound-the-credit-card-alarm?srnd=premium

First, the charge-off rate among card issuers in the first quarter increased to the highest level in almost seven years

Discover CEO Roger Hochschild told Surane in an interview that “in general, we have been contracting credit policy at the margin and tightening” because of the length of the economic expansion.

Some 8.05% of outstanding credit card debt among Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 was delinquent by at least 90 days, the highest level since early 2011

The New York Fed report noted that the number of credit inquiries in the past six months, an indicator of demand for credit among consumers, fell to the lowest level since the data begin.


Delinquencies were at long-term lows between 2013-2015. The chart shows that delinquency rates are still below 20 year trends for each age group.

Maybe it's the beginning of bad news but a slight uptick from multi-decade lows could also be an indicator of healthy credit availability.

Not my insight:
https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/status/1128663248612597760
Title: Re: Consumer credit trends
Post by: Parsad on May 15, 2019, 12:46:44 PM
A good update:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-15/millennials-are-helping-to-sound-the-credit-card-alarm?srnd=premium

First, the charge-off rate among card issuers in the first quarter increased to the highest level in almost seven years

Discover CEO Roger Hochschild told Surane in an interview that “in general, we have been contracting credit policy at the margin and tightening” because of the length of the economic expansion.

Some 8.05% of outstanding credit card debt among Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 was delinquent by at least 90 days, the highest level since early 2011

The New York Fed report noted that the number of credit inquiries in the past six months, an indicator of demand for credit among consumers, fell to the lowest level since the data begin.


CC delinquencies are up, but from everything I've read LOC's, mortgages, etc are being paid on time and are manageable both in the U.S. and Canada.  It's certainly worth keeping an eye on, as mortgage renewals come up and rates at some point continue to go higher.  I would guess that budgets are strained, but not at a breaking point yet...so you are seeing delinquencies in credit cards increasing rather than secured loans like auto, mortgage or LOC's.  You have near full employment with competitive wages available again in both countries, so households are managing inflation, increased rates, etc.  It's highly unlikely that the economy will tank going into an election year as well...Trump will do everything he can to get votes and keep the economy running hot.  Cheers!