Author Topic: Cryptocurrencies  (Read 100969 times)

SharperDingaan

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #20 on: May 10, 2017, 11:42:38 AM »
It's more useful to think of blockchain technology as the start of another industrial revolution; over time the technologies don't go away, they just get subsumed by something better. But each time the revolution starts - it is a material improvement on what went before it.

Blockchain is evolving; some suggest that we're even currently entering Blockchain 4.0.
Each version takes us to a fork.

SD   


Mark Jr.

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2017, 06:47:33 PM »
i don't really understand crypto.

It seems like a successful one required widespread adoption, yet being volatile and hoarded by speculators goes counter to merchant adoption. On the other hand one that is stable and non-volatile which merchants may adopt is not one which you can speculate on.

It is basically lose lose.

That sounds pretty close to what happened with the precursor to crypto-currencies: digital gold currencies of the early 00's era.

e-gold was widely used, liquid but had horrible governance and was eventually shut down.
Goldmoney had a much better governance structure but nobody used it outside of storing gold digitally (merchants were not using goldmoney for payments, e-gold had that pretty much locked).

e-gold went more or less to zero (well it was shutdown, there is still a lingering class action settlement going for what's left)

goldmoney is still around to this day, most recently being merged with Toronto based Bitgold, so interestingly, you can now convert bitcoin into vaulted gold (goldmoney) or even physical gold. Bitgold is also publicly traded on the TSX under "XAU".

Mark Jr.

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #22 on: May 11, 2017, 07:08:50 PM »
When your mechanic and plumber start investing and touting the wonders of cryptocurrency, you should start to get concerned!  Both have tried to arrange meetings with me recently on how amazing and hot Bitcoin is, as well as they want to introduce me to their Bitcoin guys.

Those are the people who are reacting purely to the price of Bitcoin, in that sense we are probably in another bubble, not the first or the last for the BTC price. One thing I have noticed about the crypto-currency economy is that their "secular cycles" are a lot more compressed than other cycles. The whole space is moving so fast it is simply dizzying. If I were a New-Age Futurist Flake (NAFF?) I would say that a "monetary-technological singularity has occurred" (but I'm not).

Also, the fact that Patrick Byrne is now spending Overstock.com money on this, should also concern people!

I know one of the investments Overstock made into the space and it's actually one of the better ones I've seen.  Real company, actual service, has a nice geographical niche completely locked down, I've met the CEO and he's quite smart and capable. I actually use his platform sometimes.

Cryptocurrency is the future, but the winners will be few and far between, like how Amazon presently leads the internet wars with the dead carcasses of its competitors littering the street or barely surviving.

I still think it's for the most part too early to tell not only who the winners will be but what they're going to be. It may not even be bitcoin (wonderful comment made earlier in this thread was "is bitcoin facebook? or myspace?").

There is a compelling book about this entire phenomenon by Nick Gogerty called "The Nature of Value" (I may have mentioned it in the books forum once), about how technology shifts go through 4 distinct quadrants and 2 of them are horrible for capital allocators. Blockchain is still in that "emerging" quadrant.

Personally all I did was a few years ago I just started accepting bitcoin as payment at my business (domain registations & web hosting), the volume was so low we just threw it into a pile and left it there. Now that pile isn't looking so small anymore, between the incremental daily transactions of a few years and the price rise it's looking quite nice.

Ethereum could be meaningful, when Goldman and JPM et al formed the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance I knew this was the one "alt-coin" to take a flyer on and my first tranche is a 10x. How often does that happen? (I should have bet it EVERYTHING I had! Just kidding). I just knew that with GS and JPM involved it was going to separate from the pack of altcoins. That said, I still haven't seen an actual application that's very far beyond the crypto-currency / blockchain / smart contract equiv. of "hello world" running on ethereum.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2017, 05:27:01 AM by Mark Jr. »

SharperDingaan

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #23 on: May 13, 2017, 05:21:45 AM »
If you are holding Bitcoin - you may want to exit in the next few days.
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/hackers-exploit-stolen-u-spy-agency-tool-launch-000320843--finance.html

What isn't being stated in this story is that the payment is to be made in Bitcoin, & that the corrective software patch was released by Microsoft almost 6 months ago. Russian hackers that want to live, don't shit where they sleep.

Payment in Bitcoin indicates the attack was not meant to succeed. To collect the payment the payer has to know the public key to pay to - & the seller cannot rely on intimidation to keep the keys quiet as they don't know which networks will get hit. The transparency of Bitcoin also makes tracking very easy. But what does happen is a spike in the price and liquidity of Bitcoin as folks rush to purchase the coin - enabling bulk sale of existing coin. In the securities world its called 'working the box'.

To use the spike you must already have the coin, & in quantity; there are few possibilities.
Buyer beware.

SD 

 

rkbabang

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #24 on: May 13, 2017, 08:52:02 AM »
There are Bitcoin mixers which can anonymize your Bitcoin, but you could be correct. I am not concerned about the short term price though. If it falls by half or more it won't be the first time nor the last. I plan to hold for a decade or more.

SharperDingaan

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #25 on: May 13, 2017, 09:17:18 AM »
There are Bitcoin mixers which can anonymize your Bitcoin, but you could be correct. I am not concerned about the short term price though. If it falls by half or more it won't be the first time nor the last. I plan to hold for a decade or more.

Mixers disguise who paid you, but you're still the recipient of the coin - & your public key is visible to all.
If it rises rapidly, & you sell (for security) - nothing prevents you buying it back later (at hopefully a lot less).

Interesting piece from Quartz attached. Note the links between Etherium and Bitcoin
https://qz.com/981814/the-strange-mix-of-reasons-why-bitcoin-has-soared-to-all-time-records/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo

SD
« Last Edit: May 13, 2017, 10:00:30 AM by SharperDingaan »

Mark Jr.

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #26 on: May 13, 2017, 01:37:19 PM »
I don't think the WannaCry worm (which is what you're talking about) has anything to do with "spiking the BTC price" or anything like that, it's just a straight ahead ransomware attack with the added novelty of using a worm delivery system instead of spearphishing. Given that it attacks IIS servers and not workstations this makes sense. Bitcoin has always been the payment method in ransomware attacks, it's a huge business globally, and it's easy to move the BTC around and not get caught.

If you're looking for a rationale to dump any bitcoin you're holding, WannaCry isn't it.

SharperDingaan

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #27 on: May 15, 2017, 01:23:54 PM »
We live and learn every day ...

http://www.ibtimes.com/wannacry-ransomware-attack-hackers-raised-50000-bitcoins-now-what-2539199

Yet by Monday morning, the London-based bitcoin tracking experts at Elliptic Enterprises Ltd. found only about $50,000 worth of bitcoin ransoms were paid, Bloomberg reported.

SD

Jurgis

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #28 on: May 15, 2017, 02:16:27 PM »
We live and learn every day ...

http://www.ibtimes.com/wannacry-ransomware-attack-hackers-raised-50000-bitcoins-now-what-2539199

Yet by Monday morning, the London-based bitcoin tracking experts at Elliptic Enterprises Ltd. found only about $50,000 worth of bitcoin ransoms were paid, Bloomberg reported.

SD

Crime just doesn't pay... enough.  8)
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo

rkbabang

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #29 on: May 16, 2017, 05:34:19 AM »
We live and learn every day ...

http://www.ibtimes.com/wannacry-ransomware-attack-hackers-raised-50000-bitcoins-now-what-2539199

Yet by Monday morning, the London-based bitcoin tracking experts at Elliptic Enterprises Ltd. found only about $50,000 worth of bitcoin ransoms were paid, Bloomberg reported.

SD

Crime just doesn't pay... enough.  8)

Even if they somehow get ahold of their $50k they caused an enormous amount of damage for very little reward.  It's like a mugger who kills someone for $5 in their wallet.  Luckily a 22 year old who still lives with his parents accidentally stopped the attack.

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-22-year-old-stopped-global-cyberattack-ransomware-registering-domain-2017-5