Author Topic: POLL: Fed and interest rates  (Read 10216 times)

shalab

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #60 on: March 23, 2019, 09:19:10 AM »
Agreed with volatility being a friend of the investor. I am getting cash ready for the next event which could happen 3-6 months out.

However, USA interest rate hikes have implications beyond the immediate interest payment. E.g:, USDCAD is at 1.34. EURUSD is at 1.13. Given 50% of SP500 earnings are from abroad, this has implications on trade and investments.

In addition, 70% on this board supported rate hikes. It shows how politics can turn ones head into cabbage, ala Munger.

Continue to be amazed at the recklessness of Powell.  Pushing through those eight sequential hikes...especially the december one.  And then within a few days  he's speechifying in January and again now dialing it all back in the face of data that was already rather obvious to even the most casual observer. Clown

Huh? What have the Fed hikes to do with politics ? Powell was chosen by Trump, by the way.
Anyways, I canít see how  a 2.5% interest rates (real interest rate is 0.5-1% after inflation) can cause a problem. It sure seems to be a preferable situation Europe, where interesting rates are virtually nil and the economic is crawling to a halt nevertheless. My guess is that the recent drop in LT interest rates in The EU is caused by Brexit uncertainty, which is an exogenous event for the US.

I also note think that every value investor should love volatility.


Viking

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #61 on: March 23, 2019, 11:27:17 AM »
It really is surprising how quickly the economic data is turning compared to 3, 6, 9 and 12 months ago. Europe is slowing. Exports from China are slowing. And now US GDP is slowing, with expectations for Q1 now around 1%.

GDP growth in Canada in Q4 was barely positive and expectations are Q1 GDP will be negative; on a blended (Q4+Q1) basis the expectation is we could see a negative number.

The million dollar question: does this global slowdown continue in 2019? Or do we bottom in Q1 and see growth pick up in Q2 and rise into year end?

As has been posted by Spekulatius, i am also hoping for some volatility to take advantage of panic selling.