Author Topic: An Evolve-or-Die Moment for the World's Great Investors  (Read 1261 times)

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: An Evolve-or-Die Moment for the World's Great Investors
« Reply #10 on: Today at 06:41:26 PM »
One way to limit facebook is to limit the amount of users they can have (1 billion or whatever). Naturally, folks would then go to the network that had most of their friends (and their friends would eventually go there). You could also limit it to regions - but give users the ability to have 10 or 20 or 50 connections (or some number) outside of their region. I don't have facebook anymore but most of my friends were in one or two regions (and I'm willing to bet that's the case for most users). You then have difference companies in different regions and then those regions would also prosper.

Sounds absolutely ridiculous.


vinod1

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Re: An Evolve-or-Die Moment for the World's Great Investors
« Reply #11 on: Today at 06:55:46 PM »
Monopoly and Anti-Trust arguments are a complete non-starter. The link below has a summary of the key laws in U.S. related to Anti-Trust.

https://www.justice.gov/atr/file/800691/download

If you can make a case for why Google or Facebook are price gouging consumers, then Anti-Trust laws would apply. If you are looking for weak points in these companies, Anti-Trust would not make it into the top 5 worry list in U.S.

Vinod
The fundamental algorithm of life: repeat what works. –Charlie Munger

vinod1

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Re: An Evolve-or-Die Moment for the World's Great Investors
« Reply #12 on: Today at 07:07:17 PM »
For those of us who have memory of the 2000 tech bubble, it is easy to imagine a bubble whenever you see tech or other companies sporting high multiples.

I agree with the article above, I pretty much came to a similar conclusion a couple of years ago. For the diehard value investors, this would be just one more sign of investors capitulating to the latest fad.

I would urge you to just consider the possibility that maybe, just maybe, you might be wrong.

Vinod
The fundamental algorithm of life: repeat what works. –Charlie Munger

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: An Evolve-or-Die Moment for the World's Great Investors
« Reply #13 on: Today at 08:39:02 PM »
For those of us who have memory of the 2000 tech bubble, it is easy to imagine a bubble whenever you see tech or other companies sporting high multiples.

I agree with the article above, I pretty much came to a similar conclusion a couple of years ago. For the diehard value investors, this would be just one more sign of investors capitulating to the latest fad.

I would urge you to just consider the possibility that maybe, just maybe, you might be wrong.

Vinod

One major difference is that it seems that unlike in 2000, Warren Buffett has jumped into tech this time (he largely sat out of it back in 2000). I think that's a significant difference and indicates a real change afoot. The network effects of FB, the moat of Alphabet, and the ecosystem/halo of Apple products is unlikely to disappear overnight like the popularity of tech companies circa 2000. These companies are producing real profits this time--and at high margins and asset light rates. Sure, competition will enter and disrupt, but tech in general is here to stay (and is embraced by mass market consumers now).

rb

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Re: An Evolve-or-Die Moment for the World's Great Investors
« Reply #14 on: Today at 09:01:27 PM »
I suppose that WB sees these companies like Google as the media companies of last generation - Cap Cities/ABC. They do bear striking similarities if you're familiar with WB's thinking in the 70s.

But these companies have to behave. Trolls, bots, and fake news are a problem. The old media companies didn't have problems like theses. If the problem gets too big it doesn't matter if it doesn't make sense to break them or what's the best way to break them. They'll do it with a cleaver and let them figure it out afterwards.