Author Topic: Druckenmiller and Trump were right  (Read 15216 times)

shalab

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Re: Druckenmiller and Trump were right
« Reply #150 on: December 28, 2018, 10:00:35 AM »
Thx for clarifying. I picked up a bunch of assets this past week - may be I should thank the Fed.

Here is the foreign currency rates - one can't keep hiking rates unilaterally when the main trading partners currencies are dropping in value with similar or better economic growth.

USD/CAD
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCAD:CUR

EUR/USD
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURUSD:CUR

USD/CNY
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCNY:CUR

Shalab,

Thanks.

I think I actually haven't expressed any opinion yet in this topic, so far, if you ask me. [About if FOMC has made a mistake with the last rate hike, or not.] So please consider me the glowing doubt on that as of yet. In this topic, personally, I'm [more or less desperately] seeking input in this topic to make a judgement on that - data driven input - for discussion & evaluation.

Today, I came across of this: Bloomberg Markets [December 27th 2018] : Traders Face New Landscape With Powell at Microphone After Every Fed Meeting - More flexibility? - perhaps both with regard to communication, & mentally?


Gregmal

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Re: Druckenmiller and Trump were right
« Reply #151 on: January 18, 2019, 08:19:12 AM »
I couldn't help but think of the hilarity that was ensuing all but a month ago and the panic that took place. Yes even here, where you'd think people had better temperament and ability to ignore the noise, chaos ensued.

An entire year's worth of returns were there for the taking; to be had in a couple weeks, if one just read the situation properly.

John Hjorth

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Re: Druckenmiller and Trump were right
« Reply #152 on: January 18, 2019, 11:19:56 AM »
My own view: Jerome Powell is a fucking imbecile!

I hope that no one here will ever talk again about income equality!

Cardboard

I couldn't help but think of the hilarity that was ensuing all but a month ago and the panic that took place. Yes even here, where you'd think people had better temperament and ability to ignore the noise, chaos ensued.

An entire year's worth of returns were there for the taking; to be had in a couple weeks, if one just read the situation properly.

Yes Greg, - Easy to say, hard to do [<- back then, about three weeks ago] ... Till "next time" .. - where Cardboard may end up being right - ... "Next time" may start tomorrow next week, perhaps not.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2019, 11:23:50 AM by John Hjorth »
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

SHDL

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Re: Druckenmiller and Trump were right
« Reply #153 on: January 18, 2019, 11:25:11 AM »
I couldn't help but think of the hilarity that was ensuing all but a month ago and the panic that took place. Yes even here, where you'd think people had better temperament and ability to ignore the noise, chaos ensued.

An entire year's worth of returns were there for the taking; to be had in a couple weeks, if one just read the situation properly.

Yup.  As far as negative sentiment indicators go, chaos on CoBF is a pretty powerful one.  Way more informative than any amount of "panic" on CNBC.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2019, 11:58:35 AM by SHDL »

Gregmal

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Re: Druckenmiller and Trump were right
« Reply #154 on: January 18, 2019, 11:45:31 AM »
IDK, I say it with the same common sense conviction I had a month ago; the sky doesn't fall for no reason. So when something like that looks like its occurring you just go to the information available and in that case nothing changed. Easy as that.

Spekulatius

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Re: Druckenmiller and Trump were right
« Reply #155 on: January 18, 2019, 12:10:55 PM »
I couldn't help but think of the hilarity that was ensuing all but a month ago and the panic that took place. Yes even here, where you'd think people had better temperament and ability to ignore the noise, chaos ensued.

An entire year's worth of returns were there for the taking; to be had in a couple weeks, if one just read the situation properly.

I felt like most people here kept a cool head. There were certainly great opportunities to make money. I unfortunately ran out of cash too early. I sort of expect the volatility to stay so I am cashing in most of the stocks that bounced hard and hope for a repeat of some sorts. Most of the issues that caused the crash are still there.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

John Hjorth

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Re: Druckenmiller and Trump were right
« Reply #156 on: January 18, 2019, 12:11:32 PM »
Thanks for elaborating here, Greg,

Your last post here puts more perspective on your line of thinking, at least to me. Thank you. The point here historically also being that what Cardboard has posted earlier many times is, that no FED boss has got a situation, similar to what we're in right now, right - based on visible judgements & decisions executed. [<- You may disagree with me on that assessment, though.]

- - - o 0 o - - -

Easy to say, that the sentiment has changed at the voting machine [for now].
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

Gregmal

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Re: Druckenmiller and Trump were right
« Reply #157 on: January 18, 2019, 12:23:39 PM »
I think it all just comes back to focusing on quality stuff. Spekulatius if I remember, was positive on FDX. I don't own it but had the same views. Not too long ago its trading at what? 14x? Nothing really changes, sentiment shifts, fed hikes 25bp. Uhm, now its a 9x??? Sign me up! Either I get it at a depressed multiple and keep buying more. Or, something statistically extraordinary has to happen, IE earnings need to contract like 35%, to justify the current price... These sort of things to me should be common sense for people buying individual names. Myself, I'm not even a huge BRK fanboy, but banks fell like 30%+(BRK is a very safe way to play high quality financials), BRK is a smart capital allocator, insider buying below $200 plus BRK buyback, low PE/P/B in historical context. Do I need to know anything else to pull the trigger at $195???

Cardboard

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Re: Druckenmiller and Trump were right
« Reply #158 on: January 18, 2019, 02:31:58 PM »
Do you think that I stop looking for value, sell everything, because I believe that the Fed is making a mistake?

They basically admitted as such and changed their tune already which is a very big reason why the market has rebounded. These two forecasted rate hikes in 2019 will now be highly dependent on how economic data shakes-up. They are no longer clear either as to what is a neutral rate...

Regarding the market, I would not quite claim victory yet, nor for the economy. Many companies have warned in various sectors. Economic data from most countries seems weak. A slowdown or less growth seems like a given.

We now have a celebration due to China trade and relaxation of interest rate hikes. Brexit is still unresolved, lots of debt out there, government shutdown is getting long here. So is this just a deadcat bounce? Sell now to repeat again?

So what do you recommend here genius?

Cardboard

Gregmal

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Re: Druckenmiller and Trump were right
« Reply #159 on: January 18, 2019, 02:39:22 PM »
Same thing as before...

When stocks are cheap, ignore the noise.