Author Topic: Druckenmiller Interview - June 3rd  (Read 4618 times)

meiroy

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 814
Re: Druckenmiller Interview - June 3rd
« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2019, 12:52:41 AM »


Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.  His ability to see things systematically is unparalleled.

I was aware of his views on inflation, innovation, and productivity but it's the first time I hear him using arguments trying to quantify it. (amount of google searches, it is free and thus not included in inflation etc.)

 


scorpioncapital

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1724
    • scorpion capital
Re: Druckenmiller Interview - June 3rd
« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2019, 01:07:32 AM »
How do we know he doesn't Invest via an offshore structure with no tax ? You can do alot of things when you don't pay capital gains tax (eg a private investor in Belgium) or the rate is very low like averaging a few points in several offshore countries and EU . I guess that's what helps the rich get richer , being based in the right country, if in name and formalities only.

Cigarbutt

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1736
Re: Druckenmiller Interview - June 3rd
« Reply #12 on: June 06, 2019, 05:05:24 AM »
Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.  His ability to see things systematically is unparalleled.

I was aware of his views on inflation, innovation, and productivity but it's the first time I hear him using arguments trying to quantify it. (amount of google searches, it is free and thus not included in inflation etc.)
In my household, I would say that 99% of circulating photos, clicks, likes, searches, videos watched (the number of which has been growing sequentially and quasi-exponentially) should NOT be counted in GDP. Unless we made it to the leisure society but I think the economic possibilities are not quite there yet.
I like the anecdote (which seems reasonable for him) when he decided to sell all long exposure and buy treasuries instead, on the spot, while playing golf. He says it was a tweet and I guess he felt the wind change.

muscleman

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3160
Re: Druckenmiller Interview - June 3rd
« Reply #13 on: June 06, 2019, 05:37:47 AM »
How do we know he doesn't Invest via an offshore structure with no tax ? You can do alot of things when you don't pay capital gains tax (eg a private investor in Belgium) or the rate is very low like averaging a few points in several offshore countries and EU . I guess that's what helps the rich get richer , being based in the right country, if in name and formalities only.

Also, he manages Soros’ open society foundation, which is a charity right?
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

gfp

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1808
Re: Druckenmiller Interview - June 3rd
« Reply #14 on: June 06, 2019, 05:54:13 AM »
Druckenmiller has his own foundation.  Does he really manage one of Soros's foundations' assets as well?  Where did you read that?

How do we know he doesn't Invest via an offshore structure with no tax ? You can do alot of things when you don't pay capital gains tax (eg a private investor in Belgium) or the rate is very low like averaging a few points in several offshore countries and EU . I guess that's what helps the rich get richer , being based in the right country, if in name and formalities only.

Also, he manages Soros’ open society foundation, which is a charity right?

SHDL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 469
Re: Druckenmiller Interview - June 3rd
« Reply #15 on: June 06, 2019, 06:43:03 AM »
Drukenmiller is a smart guy and very much worth listening to. But it seems like his strategy is very sub-optimal from a tax stand point. If he turns over > 100% per year, he would pay a lot of taxes when he is right. When you are compounding at 30% a year I guess it is ok but he says he doesn't make anything close to it these days.

I don't think you need 30% per year to justify a high turnover strategy...  A > 2% "alpha" is likely enough for most people.

muscleman

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3160
Re: Druckenmiller Interview - June 3rd
« Reply #16 on: June 06, 2019, 07:16:26 AM »
Druckenmiller has his own foundation.  Does he really manage one of Soros's foundations' assets as well?  Where did you read that?

How do we know he doesn't Invest via an offshore structure with no tax ? You can do alot of things when you don't pay capital gains tax (eg a private investor in Belgium) or the rate is very low like averaging a few points in several offshore countries and EU . I guess that's what helps the rich get richer , being based in the right country, if in name and formalities only.

Also, he manages Soros’ open society foundation, which is a charity right?

He is so famous that I thought this is a wildly known fact.
He was named Soros' 8th successor after Soros fired his first 7 successors. Then he magically hang on and worked well for Soros for many many years. I haven't heard any news that they parted their way yet, so I assume he is still Soros's successor.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

gfp

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1808
Re: Druckenmiller Interview - June 3rd
« Reply #17 on: June 06, 2019, 07:40:29 AM »
Yeah I think your information might be a little out of date.

Druckenmiller has his own foundation.  Does he really manage one of Soros's foundations' assets as well?  Where did you read that?

How do we know he doesn't Invest via an offshore structure with no tax ? You can do alot of things when you don't pay capital gains tax (eg a private investor in Belgium) or the rate is very low like averaging a few points in several offshore countries and EU . I guess that's what helps the rich get richer , being based in the right country, if in name and formalities only.

Also, he manages Soros’ open society foundation, which is a charity right?

He is so famous that I thought this is a wildly known fact.
He was named Soros' 8th successor after Soros fired his first 7 successors. Then he magically hang on and worked well for Soros for many many years. I haven't heard any news that they parted their way yet, so I assume he is still Soros's successor.

meiroy

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 814
Re: Druckenmiller Interview - June 3rd
« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2019, 08:02:31 AM »
Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.  His ability to see things systematically is unparalleled.

I was aware of his views on inflation, innovation, and productivity but it's the first time I hear him using arguments trying to quantify it. (amount of google searches, it is free and thus not included in inflation etc.)
In my household, I would say that 99% of circulating photos, clicks, likes, searches, videos watched (the number of which has been growing sequentially and quasi-exponentially) should NOT be counted in GDP. Unless we made it to the leisure society but I think the economic possibilities are not quite there yet.
I like the anecdote (which seems reasonable for him) when he decided to sell all long exposure and buy treasuries instead, on the spot, while playing golf. He says it was a tweet and I guess he felt the wind change.

That's a good point.

So, let's say you don't have these free services anymore. Are you not going to print pictures and would it not cost money?
 
How much information are you getting now free that would have cost you money before?

How many times have you looked up some info and used it, instead of relying on paid experts?

How many free youtube videos?

Email? What would be the alternatives and would they be free?

etc.

Even if you somehow not spend any money if all of these are turned off tomorrow (unlikely) it would not negate the fact that they added value and increase productivity, for free.






Viking

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1500
Re: Druckenmiller Interview - June 3rd
« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2019, 09:29:12 AM »
Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.  His ability to see things systematically is unparalleled.

I was aware of his views on inflation, innovation, and productivity but it's the first time I hear him using arguments trying to quantify it. (amount of google searches, it is free and thus not included in inflation etc.)
In my household, I would say that 99% of circulating photos, clicks, likes, searches, videos watched (the number of which has been growing sequentially and quasi-exponentially) should NOT be counted in GDP. Unless we made it to the leisure society but I think the economic possibilities are not quite there yet.
I like the anecdote (which seems reasonable for him) when he decided to sell all long exposure and buy treasuries instead, on the spot, while playing golf. He says it was a tweet and I guess he felt the wind change.

That's a good point.

So, let's say you don't have these free services anymore. Are you not going to print pictures and would it not cost money?
 
How much information are you getting now free that would have cost you money before?

How many times have you looked up some info and used it, instead of relying on paid experts?

How many free youtube videos?

Email? What would be the alternatives and would they be free?

etc.

Even if you somehow not spend any money if all of these are turned off tomorrow (unlikely) it would not negate the fact that they added value and increase productivity, for free.

Transportation: much, much more efficent with Google maps; how is this economic and life improvement captured in GDP data?
Education: much, much better with the internet; how is this economic and life improvement captured in GDP data?

Software is transforming every aspect of life. Banking is a great example of this transformation. Not that long ago i used to get paid with a paper check that i would then have to go to the bank, stand in line and deposit. Need cash to buy something? Go to the bank, stand in line and withdraw cash. I would write a check to pay someone (who would then go to the bank, stand in line and make a deposit). Need to pay your utility bills? Go to the bank, stand in line and pay. Want a second account? Go to the bank stand in line and open. Investing was pretty much impossible for most people; so they bought Canada Saving Bonds or left their money in a savings account at their bank (my monther-in-law still does this). If you did have investment accounts, most people paid big fees. This was life a few short years ago.

Today everything is done electronically. Much, much quicker. Much more accurate. Much, much cheaper. Much more selection. Quality of life is much, much better. How are all of these improvements captured in GDP data (maybe they are .... not sure)? And for banks, their cost structure has to be way, way lower. All the people they no longer need must be a big drag on GDP (layoffs or separation or someone leaves and are not replaced).

And we are just getting started with software improving pretty much every aspect of ones life...