Author Topic: Timeframe of next correction  (Read 1724 times)

wescobrk

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Timeframe of next correction
« on: January 11, 2017, 05:00:41 PM »
Obviously, I'm not looking for an exact day or month, but what is everyone's guess of the next 15-20% decline?
I've read one happens every 5 years. I believe the last one we had was in the summer of 2011. We are 5.5 years in.


stahleyp

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Re: Timeframe of next correction
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2017, 06:00:58 PM »
A correction (technically) is usually a 10% drop or more. So the last one I believe was late 2015/feb 2016.

Folks have been waiting for a  bigger correction for a while:

http://thereformedbroker.com/2013/08/20/a-field-guide-to-stock-market-corrections/
« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 06:06:39 PM by stahleyp »
Paul

DooDiligence

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Re: Timeframe of next correction
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2017, 06:43:17 PM »
I'm gonna go with these 2 guys

http://www.businessinsider.com/howard-marks-warren-buffett-quote-on-media-fake-news-economists-2017-1

and keep searching for fair deals on quality...
abev | aapl | bbh | cri | ew | esrx | nsrgy | nvo | rgr | trow | vde

OracleofCarolina

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Re: Timeframe of next correction
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2017, 07:48:10 PM »
I have no freaking clue..hope this helps.

chrispy

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Re: Timeframe of next correction
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2017, 04:13:24 AM »
As everyone has said, it is impossible... 

My main question is trying to figure out how much cash to hold at all times.  I am assuming it is proportional to (overvalued holdings that are sold off) - (high quality deals that can be found and purchased)?

Uccmal

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Re: Timeframe of next correction
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2017, 05:01:08 AM »
Eventually. 

Its easier to work bottom up.  As my stocks hit new highs I take a little off the table, bit by bit. 

I was just looking at my accounts, trying to figure where I can trim. 
GARP tending toward value

Paarslaars

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Re: Timeframe of next correction
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2017, 05:08:42 AM »
Same here, don't want to sell BRK though. :-\

wescobrk

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Re: Timeframe of next correction
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2017, 05:45:36 AM »
Thanks for everyones comments.
There was a little bit of truth to my comment as Buffett has spoken in the past when the market was elevated (such as in 2000) he predicted the returns would drop to I believe mid single digits. We have seen his cash rise a lot with the market is elevated, technically he is't "timing" because obviously no one knows when it will happen, but he is timing to some degree because he is calculating a lot lower rate of return if he buys at high levels, so clearly somewhere in the equation is a drop over some time frame, just like his statement about 10% probability in any given year means 99.5% change it'll happen over 50 year period.

Buffett is timing, I believe, it's just over a multi year period. This is an arbitrary number, but I believe when a market is overvalued, his calculation is that happens say, within a 5 year period.

rkbabang

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Re: Timeframe of next correction
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2017, 08:09:19 AM »
August 7, 2019 at 10:24 AM. Give or take a few years.
 

DooDiligence

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Re: Timeframe of next correction
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2017, 08:19:02 AM »
Thanks for everyones comments.
There was a little bit of truth to my comment as Buffett has spoken in the past when the market was elevated (such as in 2000) he predicted the returns would drop to I believe mid single digits. We have seen his cash rise a lot with the market is elevated, technically he is't "timing" because obviously no one knows when it will happen, but he is timing to some degree because he is calculating a lot lower rate of return if he buys at high levels, so clearly somewhere in the equation is a drop over some time frame, just like his statement about 10% probability in any given year means 99.5% change it'll happen over 50 year period.

Buffett is timing, I believe, it's just over a multi year period. This is an arbitrary number, but I believe when a market is overvalued, his calculation is that happens say, within a 5 year period.

Semantics

I think most of us here are timing, just not in a broad sense.

Waiting on individual issues to be priced right & in my case, holding until the time is right...

(timing is everything & patience is a virtue!)
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 08:21:38 AM by DooDiligence »
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