Author Topic: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?  (Read 123745 times)

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #200 on: May 30, 2018, 10:24:23 AM »
That new CEO will finish his review of the portfolio this summer and then will take action...

Seriously, how much analysis do you need to figure out that buying your debt at 46 cents on the dollar is a good deal?

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Or buying the common at like 25% of NAV is as well. Anyone know when Delonex begins to drill in Chad? Brent price back over $77 again - will be a very nice royalty at these prices....

Delonex paid US$35 million on the closing of the Transaction (subject to applicable escrow and holdback requirements), and will pay an additional US$50 million if first oil is achieved, including US$20 million for first oil at Doba and US$30 million for first oil at Block H. United will retain a royalty of 10 percent on Doba production and a 5 per cent royalty on Block H production, payable unless the average price of Brent Crude oil is less than US$45 for a quarter.


doc75

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #201 on: May 30, 2018, 10:47:23 AM »
That new CEO will finish his review of the portfolio this summer and then will take action...

Seriously, how much analysis do you need to figure out that buying your debt at 46 cents on the dollar is a good deal?

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I doubt they'd be able to scoop up much at these prices, due to limited volume etc.   But any amount would be accretive and would send a strong signal that they're not asleep at the wheel.

I'm anxiously waiting to see if they have any sensible ideas as to what to do with all the money-losing subs and private equity investments.  We're in a situation here where I think *any* positive development will precipitate meaningful upside in both the common and prefs.  And the bar for "positive" is pretty low.  I mean these guys can look good simply by selling some assets at a fraction of the carrying value.

doc75

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #202 on: June 07, 2018, 10:48:54 AM »
Did someone say something naughty at the AGM on Monday or something?  Shares down to all time low of $1.65 today, and looking like they're heading lower under steady selling pressure.

Someone is making a half-assed attempt at a patient exit.

I see that over 12% the subordinate share votes were withheld across the board.  Not that it matters when the Goodman's shares count 100 votes per.

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #203 on: June 07, 2018, 11:03:54 AM »
They were asked about buying back stock and they are reluctant while they are still trying to improve their liquidity position.

If someone was hoping that was a near term catalyst perhaps that would prompt an exit.

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Cardboard

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #204 on: June 07, 2018, 12:12:50 PM »
Jonathan is still not done with his portfolio review. That will be sometime late this summer. Until then, impossible to consider buying back debt for less than 50 cents on the dollar, nor shares at a fraction of NAV.  ::)

Dumbdee what the proper title for this thread. I really don't know how these childrens can possibly look at themselves in the mirror.

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SafetyinNumbers

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #205 on: June 07, 2018, 01:14:10 PM »
I pushed him on buying back the pref over the common primarily because it reduces future cash outflows and is effectively a risk free after tax return (to them) of over 12%.

The catalyst here could be whatever Delonex ends up reporting. That royalty could be a home run.
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Rod

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #206 on: June 07, 2018, 01:23:58 PM »
I pushed him on buying back the pref over the common primarily because it reduces future cash outflows and is effectively a risk free after tax return (to them) of over 12%.

The catalyst here could be whatever Delonex ends up reporting. That royalty could be a home run.

Parq Vancouver could be a big win as well. It's opening into one of the best hotel markets in North America. Commercial properties are selling for very high valuations. It's hard to believe that there aren't Chinese investors taking an interest in it. And, hopefully this isn't culturally insensitive, but a gold building in Vancouver with a large casino... Can you think of anything more appealing to Chinese investors?

doc75

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #207 on: June 07, 2018, 01:41:15 PM »
I pushed him on buying back the pref over the common primarily because it reduces future cash outflows and is effectively a risk free after tax return (to them) of over 12%.

The catalyst here could be whatever Delonex ends up reporting. That royalty could be a home run.

Parq Vancouver could be a big win as well. It's opening into one of the best hotel markets in North America. Commercial properties are selling for very high valuations. It's hard to believe that there aren't Chinese investors taking an interest in it. And, hopefully this isn't culturally insensitive, but a gold building in Vancouver with a large casino... Can you think of anything more appealing to Chinese investors?

With regard to Parq, I was a bit surprised to read this in the annual letter:

"To date, results have been encouraging but more work needs to be done to reach our internal targets. And while the Casino is performing well, both hotels remain in ramp-up mode and results for the food and beverage options have been mixed. The Victor has proven to be premier destination for connoisseurs of steak and seafood, while other restaurants will require a repositioning to help ensure their competitive position."

All of my lame Google research led me to the conclusion that the casino was subpar (at least for experienced players, particularly with respect to poker) whereas the hotels were excellent.  And the restaurants seem to all have strong reviews, again based on minimal research.

They go on to say:

"Earlier this year, we provided guidance for EBITDA of between $50 and $75 million for Parq Vancouver in 2018. While we
still think this goal is reachable, it may take slightly longer than originally anticipated to achieve. Longer-term, once the project is fully ramped up, we anticipate that it has the potential to achieve annual EBITDA of greater than $70 million. However, we need to address the capital structure in order to ensure Parq Vancouverís longer term viability. Currently, Dundee and its two equity partners in the project, PBC Group and Paragon Gaming, are exploring alternatives that could result in a debt refinancing or other changes to the capital or ownership struc- ture. While we have a favorable view of Parq Vancouver, and continue to believe in its potential as a cornerstone asset, ex- ploring various alternatives at this stage in its life is prudent."


All their recent language regarding Parq has been aimed at lowering any near-term expectations.   But it's now at the point where we don't need Parq to be a home run.  Any reasonable refinancing / restructuring of the project should allay concerns and be positive for Dundee shares.

doc75

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #208 on: June 07, 2018, 01:49:17 PM »
I pushed him on buying back the pref over the common primarily because it reduces future cash outflows and is effectively a risk free after tax return (to them) of over 12%.

The catalyst here could be whatever Delonex ends up reporting. That royalty could be a home run.

Agreed on Delonex.  Apparently they expect a well to be drilled this calendar year, so a reasonably near term potential catalyst.

Do you mind sharing his response to being pushed on the prefs?  I understand the company not buying back the common at this point.  I don't understand insiders staying out of the market -- not even a nibble -- and I really don't understand why the company doesn't at least make an attempt at taking out some of those prefs.  Instead, they're talking about building out a merchant banking business.  Do they seriously think they can outlay capital in any manner that competes with the risk-free return they'd get from buying the prefs?

Of course there's very likely not enough liquidity for them to buy much anyway, and I don't know the costs of maintaining a buyback program. Maybe those are big factors. But my guess is that they overestimate their ability as investors/businessmen and are simply being irrational.



Rod

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #209 on: June 07, 2018, 02:02:16 PM »
I pushed him on buying back the pref over the common primarily because it reduces future cash outflows and is effectively a risk free after tax return (to them) of over 12%.

The catalyst here could be whatever Delonex ends up reporting. That royalty could be a home run.

Agreed on Delonex.  Apparently they expect a well to be drilled this calendar year, so a reasonably near term potential catalyst.

Do you mind sharing his response to being pushed on the prefs?  I understand the company not buying back the common at this point.  I don't understand insiders staying out of the market -- not even a nibble -- and I really don't understand why the company doesn't at least make an attempt at taking out some of those prefs.  Instead, they're talking about building out a merchant banking business.  Do they seriously think they can outlay capital in any manner that competes with the risk-free return they'd get from buying the prefs?

Of course there's very likely not enough liquidity for them to buy much anyway, and I don't know the costs of maintaining a buyback program. Maybe those are big factors. But my guess is that they overestimate their ability as investors/businessmen and are simply being irrational.

I believe that Richard McIntyre exercised 45,000 rights in April. Unless I am misunderstanding this, that would represent a commitment of about $90,000