Author Topic: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?  (Read 103000 times)

gokou3

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #260 on: July 05, 2018, 04:29:13 PM »
Their two hotels should worth something.  Here are some room rates for end of July (peak hotel season for Vancouver) - first and last ones.


gokou3

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #261 on: July 05, 2018, 04:32:57 PM »
...and rates for the beginning of November, should be low season.  Someone who has more experience in hotel valuations can figure out a value based on these room rates.

bizaro86

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #262 on: July 05, 2018, 07:01:53 PM »
You need to know occupancy to estimate a value, which could be poor given the hotel is new and ramping up.

petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #263 on: July 10, 2018, 02:06:49 AM »
Their two hotels should worth something.  Here are some room rates for end of July (peak hotel season for Vancouver) - first and last ones.

Of course they're worth something. The question is, are they worth much more than the debt. I played with some ebitda and multiple scenarios and decided not to value it at more than they have invested - I hope I am being conservative but we don't have a lot of info.

petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #264 on: July 10, 2018, 02:08:03 AM »
Is there any way of getting this thread into the investment ideas section? It faintly irritates the pedant in me that it's under general discussion!

petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #265 on: July 10, 2018, 02:10:36 AM »
Separately, does anyone have a handle on valuing the Android and Sarea investments?

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #266 on: July 10, 2018, 08:45:05 AM »
Here is Jim Roumel's valuation of Dundee post AGM. Values Parq at 50% of carry, expects Blue Goose sale & places conservative assumptions on other assets while subtracting $41 million for corp costs & pref dividends over next 18 months. Still comes out with $4.25 per common valuation.


I attended Dundee's shareholder meeting two weeks ago and walked away with increased confidence that the board has a plan, senior executives are up to the task and Jonathan knows what he's doing and is passionate about righting this ship. I view it as a "reverse prodigal son" story, i.e. the brother has come back to fix the sins of the father.

Our conservative NAV assumption gives us a large margin of safety, in my opinion:Primary Investments:

1. Untied Hydro $65 million (40% of carrying value)
2. Blue Goose $35 million (Current mark, we believe gets sold this year)
3. Dundee Securities $13 million (50% of carrying value)
4. Dundee 360 $12 million (50% of carrying value)
5. Android $24 million (100% of carrying value)
6. Dundee Sarea $7 million (50% of carrying value)
7. Parq $50 million (50% of carrying value)
8. DPM $124 million (Current market value)
9. eCobalt $19 million (20% discount to market)
10. Other Public Equities $40 million (20% discount to market)
11. TauRx $20 million (50% of carrying value)
12. Debt Investments $25 million (25% discount)

Sum: $291 million discounted NAV vs Dundee's NAV of $588 million

Less 18 months corporate overhead of $24 million and 18 months Preferred Div of $17 million = $4.25/share

petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #267 on: July 10, 2018, 08:50:04 AM »
That's absolute madness. Surely you have to subtract at least the market value of the prefs (I would subtract the par value because they'll trade a lot closer to par if things go right, which is the only way you win in the common)? He is only subtracting 18 months of pref dividends!

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #268 on: July 10, 2018, 09:11:38 AM »
That's absolute madness. Surely you have to subtract at least the market value of the prefs (I would subtract the par value because they'll trade a lot closer to par if things go right, which is the only way you win in the common)? He is only subtracting 18 months of pref dividends!

I looked at his numbers and it is somewhat wonky but close to the per share figure. Before taking out corp costs & pref dividends over next 18 months and adding the $37mm cash he left out I get to $251mm net asset value per common or $4.25 per share. Taking out the costs & dividends gives me about $3.50 per share.

Total value of assets above = $434mm + Cash $37mm - Total pref of $218 = $251mm

petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #269 on: July 10, 2018, 09:39:44 AM »
Ah-I misunderstood, having not bothered to sum the assets myself. Sorry!