Author Topic: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?  (Read 136939 times)

bizaro86

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #570 on: May 10, 2019, 07:08:59 AM »
I haven't seen any PR from Dundee themselves, but it appears they've sold the Sotheby's franchise rights, which is the primary asset of Dundee 360:

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/peerage-realty-partners-enters-into-agreement-to-acquire-sotheby-s-international-realty-canada-from-an-affiliate-of-dundee-corporation-841978915.html

They recorded an $8m impairment on this asset last quarter so I would expect the transaction to be valued at approximately book.  The entirety of Dundee 360 was carried at a NAV of about $15m as of Dec 31.

Just came here to post this. Must not be material to Dundee given no PR from them. Back of the envelope from the very limited data provided I would guess a high single digits millions price.

They paid ~$50 MM for vox360, although I think some other stuff came with that. They paid in shares though, so the shares that they paid out are only worth ~$3MM now.


sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #571 on: May 10, 2019, 07:19:17 AM »
Dundee Precious Metals   BUY
DPM-TSX   
Last:   C$4.11
Target:   C$6.50
 
FLASH: Q1 earnings weaker than expected, but operationally a good quarter
 
DPM reported Q1 results after pre-releasing production last month (refer to our FLASH note of April 8). Adj. EPS came in at a loss of $0.01 below our estimate of $0.04 (consensus at $0.04). This is largely explained by higher G&A (partly due to higher share-based compensation) and higher finance expense (as the company amended the RCF which accelerated amortization costs). That said; operating profit of $35.4mm was largely in line with our estimate of $33.4mm. CFPS before changes in working capital was $0.09 vs our forecast of $0.12 (consensus at $0.12).
As pre-reported, in Q1 Chelopech produced 43k oz gold (39.5k oz in concentrates sold) and 8.0mm lbs copper (6.3mm lbs in concentrate sold). Cash cost of $628/oz gold sold in copper concentrates (inclusive of pyrite oz) was modestly higher than our estimate of $605/oz.
At Tsumeb, 62.8kt of concentrate smelted in Q1 had a cash cost of $370/tonne smelted better than our estimate of $440/t (and also sequential better than $413/oz in Q4). The smelter generated strong EBITDA of $10.5mm. Timing of expenditures saw little capex spent this quarter (only ~$0.3mm), but the company is still guiding for full-year sustaining capex in the range of $14-18mm at Tsumeb. Annual maintenance shutdown is planned for Q4 based on the scheduled 18-month campaign.
Guidance is unchanged: DPM reaffirmed guidance expecting production in the range of 155-187k oz gold and 33-39mm lbs copper at Chelopech and initial production of 55-75k oz at Krumovgrad. Consolidated AISC in the range of $675-$820/oz.
Krumovgrad continues its ramp up towards commercial production in Q2 after first gold concentrate was achieved in mid-March. At the end of Q1, total capex incurred on the new mine was approximately $152mm, with an additional $12mm-14mm remaining (tracking well within budget of $164mm-$166mm).
Impact: Slight negative on weaker than expected EPS and CFPS

Given the weaker than expected EPS and CFPS, we would expect the stock to underperform today. That said, operationally, Q1 was a good quarter with operating profit largely in line with our expectations. A good start to the year with production and cash cost positioning DPM on-track with guidance.
With Krumovgrad now ramping up, we expect production (and cash flow) to increase in the second half of 2019.
Recommendation: Maintain BUY rating and C$6.50 target

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #572 on: May 10, 2019, 07:44:24 AM »
Dundee Corporation Announces Completion of Refinancing of Capital Structure by Parq Holdings L.P.

TORONTO, May 10, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Dundee Corporation (TSX: DC.A) (the “Corporation” or “Dundee”) today announced that Parq Holdings Limited Partnership (“Parq Holdings”) has successfully completed the refinancing of its capital structure. This transaction includes the refinancing of the first-lien and second-lien loans with a fixed rate, long-term financing structure, thereby significantly reducing the interest payments and covenant requirements.
Parq Vancouver is an integrated complex which is now fully operational and no longer encumbered with the onerous construction financing typically in place during the development phase.

“The refinancing of its capital structure provides Parq Vancouver with the financial stability and flexibility needed to continue delivering world-class service to its customers,” said Jonathan Goodman, Chairman and CEO, Dundee Corporation.   

In conjunction with the refinancing, Dundee and PBC Group welcome a new equity partner which has acquired a stake in Parq Holdings. The new partner is a domestic Canadian company with hospitality holdings in several markets and which will assist in Parq Vancouver’s ramp up and optimization.

bizaro86

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #573 on: May 10, 2019, 08:42:56 AM »
I wonder who the new partner is. My guesses would be either Brookfield or Morguard, but could be someone private.

doc75

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #574 on: May 13, 2019, 06:58:52 PM »
I wonder who the new partner is. My guesses would be either Brookfield or Morguard, but could be someone private.

I can't remember the wording but it seemed to me that their language on the call made it pretty certain the new Parq partner is private.

I feel pretty strongly now that the series 2 & 3 dividends should not be taken for granted.  They've cut G&A, but they're still burning through plenty of cash and there's no signs they'll be generating any in the next few years.   They're not going to sell DPM to pay dividends.  After they sell off the crap assets,  I think it would be an easy decision for them to preserve liquidity (and their salaries) by turning off the divvies.

After listening to the call, I'm also very skeptical of any type of meaningful issuer bid materializing.   They're very noncommittal and it sounds like they won't even make a decision until after getting a decision on their outstanding CRA issue.


petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #575 on: May 14, 2019, 05:01:53 AM »
I wonder who the new partner is. My guesses would be either Brookfield or Morguard, but could be someone private.

I can't remember the wording but it seemed to me that their language on the call made it pretty certain the new Parq partner is private.

I feel pretty strongly now that the series 2 & 3 dividends should not be taken for granted.  They've cut G&A, but they're still burning through plenty of cash and there's no signs they'll be generating any in the next few years.   They're not going to sell DPM to pay dividends.  After they sell off the crap assets,  I think it would be an easy decision for them to preserve liquidity (and their salaries) by turning off the divvies.

After listening to the call, I'm also very skeptical of any type of meaningful issuer bid materializing.   They're very noncommittal and it sounds like they won't even make a decision until after getting a decision on their outstanding CRA issue.

The partner is definitely private.

On the issuer bid - I am inclined to agree but why on earth talk about it if there isn't some intent?

petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #576 on: May 16, 2019, 01:31:57 AM »
Just updated my NAV and although some big things are yet to be delivered (sale of BG), a lot has been done and if the pref conversion drives real selling pressure the upside/downside on the common could become very compelling.

Here's what I learned from Q1, FWIW:

- holdco cost including pref divs heading to $20-22.5m, which is a transformation but still isn't covered by any regular incomes. Could begin to change with a DPM dividend or Chad oil.
- D360 is roughly half sold (Sotheby's and some RE assets in Croatia) with more to go.
- eCobalt is to be part of a bigger (but still tiny) player with more shots on goal.
- Parq is looking intriguing again. We obviously don't have a lot of data but it shouldn't need more cash, so the downside is limited, and the rate on the new debt actually allows for a surprising amount of equity upside in some scenarios. Only on the books for $10m.
- Android and Sarea values seem to have stabilised and Android may have potential.

The negative for me was the guide to up to $40m of sales in the next six months - previously they were discussing $100m+, IIRC.

My personal preference is for them to start buying in the prefs at market. Continues to derisk the common and a cheap way to add to NAVPS.

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #577 on: May 16, 2019, 10:56:15 AM »

Speculates new partner at Parq is Westmont Group. Deep pockets...

There has been speculation within the industry that the new partner is Westmont Hospitality Group.

Westmont, which manages or operates over 500 hotels in North America, Europe and Asia, has Canadian offices in Mississauga, as well as in London, England and Tokyo, Singapore and New York. It is headquartered in Houston, Texas. The president and founder is former Vancouver executive Majid Mangali, who started the company in 1975. Its related companies have owned stakes in Vancouver properties such as the Pan Pacific Vancouver and the Fairmont Waterfront.

Westmont has been associated with owning, running and selling Canadian chains such as Journey’s End, which became UniHost, and managed Quality Inn and Comfort Inn hotels. Mangali also founded and was the first chairman of InnVest REIT, which owned some 109 Canadian hotels when it was sold in 2016 for $2.1 billion to a Hong Kong-company reportedly related to Beijing-based Anbang Insurance Group Co.


https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/parq-casino-refinances-debt-and-secures-new-equity-partner

Nelson

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #578 on: May 16, 2019, 08:39:22 PM »
Anybody plan to go to the annual meeting in June?

gokou3

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #579 on: May 16, 2019, 09:53:55 PM »
DUNDEE CORPORATION ANNOUNCES COMPLETION OF CONVERSION OF
FIRST PREFERENCE SHARES, SERIES 5 (May 15, 2019)
http://dundee.financial/dc/-/media/DGC/DC/2019-05-15-Series-5-Conv-Final.pdf


So is Friday May 17th (T+2) "D-day" in terms of the avalanche of new shares hitting the Pref E holders' broker accounts and onto the market?