Author Topic: Anyone knows blog for stocks trading on Wiener Börse AG (Vienna Stock Exchange?  (Read 654 times)

meiroy

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Does anyone know a blog/resource in English discussing stocks trading on Wiener Börse AG (Vienna Stock Exchange)?


Some fun read on the stock exchange:
https://blog.en.erste-am.com/investors-can-learn-maria-theresia-vienna-stock-exchange/

The Panic of 1873:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873




sjh

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I‘m from Vienna, there is not much coverage of Austrian stocks and the few magazines and blogs that exist are in german. However most companies issue financial reports in english as well.

The market is pretty cheap here at the moment, but keep in mind that it contains lots of cyclical stocks. The only Austrian stock in my portfolio is Polytec Holding AG, I have held it for many years and the stock got crushed last year so I added, trading at a very low PE and owner operated.

skanjete

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I once had some shares in Rosenbauer, the fire truck builder.
Also owner operator and great management. For years they also had great results, quite incredible actually for a mundane business.
But this changed when the younger generation Ziegler took over. I don't own them anymore.

I also once had my eyes on Andritz, electromechanical equipment and services for hydro power plants, but I thought it was too expensive at the time.

Could you give us some more information on Polytec please? What's the attraction?

Thanks

meiroy

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sjh,


Thanks for the insight.  Hope you don't mind a few more questions:

Are companies in Austria mostly profit based like in America or something similar to Japan?

How come you are invested in only one Austrian company, being local doesn't give you any advantage?

Is my understanding correct that long term capital gains (> 1 year) are taxed at 20% flat?

Is there withholding tax for dividends?








 

sjh

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The reason why I don’t own more Austrian companies is quite simple, Austria is a small country (8 million inhabitants) and there are not that many listed companies, so small universe.

In terms of shareholder culture I would say it’s similar to Germany. Also in some listed companies the state still holds a stake. People in Austria are not very interested in the stock market, most people like real estate, cash and gold  (probably also because of our history - with the two world wars we don’t have a long term stock market performance to look back on like the US).

Regarding Polytec: they develop and supply plastic parts to the auto industry (for engines, interior, etc.), they should do well even with the shift to shift to EV as more lightweight parts will be required. So unless you think cars won’t be built in Germany any more they will do ok. They are good capital allocators imho, doing an acquisition every few years.

Regarding Andritz: yeah good company, I have worked for them some years ago, CEO owns a third or so. But too complicated for me as they have five divisions, so difficult to analyze.

meiroy

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The reason why I don’t own more Austrian companies is quite simple, Austria is a small country (8 million inhabitants) and there are not that many listed companies, so small universe.

In terms of shareholder culture I would say it’s similar to Germany. Also in some listed companies the state still holds a stake. People in Austria are not very interested in the stock market, most people like real estate, cash and gold  (probably also because of our history - with the two world wars we don’t have a long term stock market performance to look back on like the US).

Regarding Polytec: they develop and supply plastic parts to the auto industry (for engines, interior, etc.), they should do well even with the shift to shift to EV as more lightweight parts will be required. So unless you think cars won’t be built in Germany any more they will do ok. They are good capital allocators imho, doing an acquisition every few years.

Regarding Andritz: yeah good company, I have worked for them some years ago, CEO owns a third or so. But too complicated for me as they have five divisions, so difficult to analyze.

Thanks again. I'm not familiar with the shareholder culture in Germany, but I hear it's similar to Austria  :)

Polytech is tied to the cyclicality of the auto industry and this cycle is nearer the top than the bottom, IMHO.

How come they've been such a lame duck for all these years and then all of a sudden it goes up and down like that?

I've been looking a bit at Infineon Technologies AG Enterprise, it's quite impressive and also got bashed like everything else.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 02:42:00 AM by meiroy »

Spekulatius

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The investible pool in Vienna is quite small. in the past, I invested in Vienna Airport (FLU.VI) with decent success, when it was fairly cheap. The best blog I am aware of (for Mostly European stocks ) is Vallueandopportunity. I don’t think he owns Austrian stocks right now.

I think NXPI is a higher quality alternative to Infineon at a similar valuation. Andritz is a good company,  it does not look very cheap. I think Rosenbauers performance got worse, because of a cartel lawsuits where the suppliers of fire tracks determined quotes for market shares to keep prices high. With “fair” competition, margins may be lower forever in their business.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

sjh

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How come they've been such a lame duck for all these years and then all of a sudden it goes up and down like that?

Polytec is a boring small cap, the stock did nothing between 2012 and mid 2016 (except for paying approximately 5 percent dividend every year). In 2014 they made one of their bigger acquisitions and it started to show in their numbers towards the end of 2016, which is when the stock price started going up. Then in 2017 they released better than expected numbers and there were some reports that they will profit a lot from the switch to electric vehicles, which attracted many new investors, and the stock doubled within 2017. At least that’s my explanation, but you could also say Mr Market was in a good mood in 2017.

In 2018 their numbers were weaker, mainly because of delayed projects (mostly WLTP related and due to issues with a non-automotive contract). Both issues should be temporary and their earnings should normalize again, also I hope they can do another cheap acquisition soon. So I think the 50% drop in their share price is overdone and the stock should recover to at least 15 Euros quite soon.

Regarding the cycle: I don’t know, and I think nobody really knows.

Cigarbutt

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Does anyone know a blog/resource in English discussing stocks trading on Wiener Börse AG (Vienna Stock Exchange)?

Some fun read on the stock exchange:
https://blog.en.erste-am.com/investors-can-learn-maria-theresia-vienna-stock-exchange/
The Panic of 1873:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873
"Does anyone know a blog/resource in English discussing stocks trading on Wiener Börse AG (Vienna Stock Exchange)?"
Short answer: No.
Long answer: See below. Just disregard if you have something better to do.

My question to you meiroy: Are you trying to pull a Jim Rogers’ move here?

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Side note #1: Sorry long post. This AM, I had to give rides to my two youngest daughters for swimming lessons etc and had some “free” time. The oldest of the two just turned 17 and she should be able get her driving license in the next few weeks. Eventually, as my kids will become more autonomous, will re-arrange my schedule and will likely have less time for ramblings such as this one and may have to resort to short and to-the-point posts on how to make money. Incidentally, the daughter who is about to obtain her license keeps complaining about the long process to get her driving permit and how much time is spent on theoretical notions concerning human nature. I disagree because I feel that a there is a lot of unrecognized risks beneath the surface.
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Side note #2: Greetings (grüß Gott) to fellow Austrian members. Austria is a beautiful country and Vienna is a very special place. One time, I visited during Christmas Market season and recall walking along chestnut stands and stopping in coffee houses for a succulent piece of sachertorte and the best coffee I’ve tasted in my life. I still entertain the family, once in a while, with an exported recipe of Wiener Schnitzel.
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Jim Rogers remains a controversial figure, has appeared at times more disturbed than the surrounding mass delusions, has had his share of reduction to humility but has been, on a few occasions, terribly right and certainly got the Austrian market right in the 1980’s. After splitting from Mr. Soros in the late 70’s, he continued to look for contrarian plays. In 1984, riding his motorcycle through Europe, he got interested in the German market and then the Austrian stock market. The Austrian market was cheap, obscure (less than 30 stocks trading!) and neglected. Mr. Rogers felt that the market was ripe for appreciation because of what was happening in Germany and because of consensual moves towards a more investor-friendly environment. His thesis was that the market would go from a gross and obvious undervaluation to a more “normal” valuation. He went to the Creditanstalt Bank and, after meeting a few key people, it looks like he bought most of the stocks from the exchange selecting those with stronger balance sheets (construction, financials, manufacturers and machinery) and sold in early 1987 after the Austrian stock market had gone up more than 400%, thereby completing one of his best coups. From the outside, Mr. Rogers was dubbed a magician and a Prince Charming and he obviously helped his cause by publicizing his interest (Barron’s and touring Austria as a state-sponsored market promoter and eventually being called the father of the Austrian stock market in a typical self-fulfilling prophecy scenario) but this appears to be a classic case of a tipping point situation waiting for the right trigger. From Jim Rogers reflecting on the Austrian outcome: “Now, I can’t move a stock market. All I can do is point out the reality of a situation. It was one of these things, a simple idea, but once you looked at it, it was dead clear and everybody piled in.” Looking at the following reference, it seems that Mr. Rogers’ contrarian insight was based on at least some kind of quantitative justification and perhaps explains why he has become more and more considered as an extra-terrestrian.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01ATA156NWDB

So meiroy (in the unlikely possibility that you made it this far), if you feel your Austrian time has come, all you need to do is to get Barron’s interested and to convince Austrian authorities to lend you a motorcycle for a tour.

Being basically a know-nothing, what has piqued my interest in Austria’s financial markets is not the stocks but the bonds within the greater European picture. What we are seeing is something that, as far as I know, nobody even came close to predicting: the level of “risk-free” yields. Last quote on 10-yr bonds is 0.469%. Looking at Austrian historical yields and eliminating low-grade noise around the dot-com era and the 2007-9 episode, this is basically a downward straight line heading to zero and beyond whatever it takes. A low point was tested in mid-2016 when Austrian government 10-yr bonds basically reached zero and since then, in correlation to the excruciating tightening, rates are back to levitating levels at 0.469%. For the historically inclined, Austria used to be a major empire and has an incredibly rich history. WWI though helped uncover another tipping point and what followed could be considered instructive. With the Anschluss annexation in 1938, Austrian government bonds lost 46% in value and, when Poland received uninvited visit in 1939, those bonds lost another 46%. I would submit that there was a value opportunity after the Potsdam conference in 1945 because bonds only increased 12% after the conclusion of the meeting. It seems to me that there was a confluence of factors allowing to come to the conclusion that Austria would continue as a country and would sit on the right side of the curtain. I guess the cheery consensus was not so clear and the Marshall plan helped but bonds were back to par in 1953.

Of course considering that the European Union is fragile is not consensus now and not everybody agrees that stocks trading in Europe are in for a rough ride. If you look, for example, at a document part of the package submitted by estimated fellow member John Hjorth this morning, where the authors submit that, under the guidance and support of the ECB, we may be in the early innings of an explosion of earnings and about to enter the investment opportunity of a generation.

https://evermoreglobal.com/media/pdfs/Evermore_Europe_Lonely_and_Lumpy_White-Paper.pdf

Austrians are rarely in the global limelight but there was another episode where, for a while, Vienna and its Creditanstalt  Bank was a at the epicenter of the world. This is a fascinating episode for a different discussion but constitutes a classic example of an unrecognized tipping point that probably had its origin in the consequences of the new and incomplete world order that emerged after 1918.

https://www.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/9-macher-paper.pdf

Edit: English is not my first language and do not always get the words right. When referring to John Hjorth above, I used the word estimated when I meant esteemed. :)

« Last Edit: January 13, 2019, 06:16:06 AM by Cigarbutt »

sjh

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Guys, if possible please let me know before you pull another 400%-Jim-Rogers move on the Austrian stock market, so I can place my orders accordingly.  ;)