Author Topic: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?  (Read 43011 times)

Cardboard

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #60 on: December 08, 2016, 06:13:18 AM »
If any of you is interested into obtaining a high yielding security with relatively low risk, the DC.PR.B have experienced a bizarre selloff in recent days or just before the ex-dividend date on the 14. Nothing comparable in DC.PR.D, DC.PR.E or DC.A.

It pays roughly 10.6% depending on what price you may get now with an annual distribution of $1.422. Considering that these are marginable at about the same rate as liquid stocks above $2, that is a very good spread to earn on borrowed money.

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sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #61 on: December 13, 2016, 01:06:37 PM »
GMP - only broker that covers this as far as I know.

Will the resource recovery lead to them once again growing NAV and seeing the big discount narrow over the next year? 

Dundee   BUY
DC.A-TSX   
Last:   C$6.03
Target:   C$11.00
 
Deep discount to NAV remains
 
We are exiting a period of research restriction on Dundee Corp. (DC.A-TSX) due to an advisory role. Our updated NAV, including Q3/16 results, is now $13.52 (previously $14.88). Our NAV is lower q/q due largely to market depreciation in publicly traded shares of DRM and DPM and a lower management reported carrying value of UHIC. Despite the decline, the discount to NAV remains wide at ~55%. We believe that some investors may be continuing to apply deep discounts to the private investments.

DREAM sale eases near-term liquidity concerns

At the corporate level, DC.A’s credit line was reduced from $250 million to $125 million as part of an agreement extending the facility to March 14, 2017. At the end of Q3/16, $94 million had been drawn against the facility leaving ~$31 million available. Cash at the corporate level was ~$11 million. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, management announced the sale of 6.1 million shares of DRM at a price of $6.25 per share. The transaction added ~$38.1 million to DC.A’s existing cash balance. In our view, the DRM sale has eased near-term liquidity concerns but we still believe the balance sheet may restrict management’s flexibility going forward. Further asset sales of the liquid public investments remain a possibility.

Maintain BUY – NAV discount remains wide

UHIC remains the largest NAV contribution. In August, UHIC completed a restructuring to emerge with an essentially debt free balance sheet and with sufficient working capital to pursue an immediate goal of attracting a joint venture partner. This process remains ongoing.

In the near term, DC.A’s SPAC has scheduled a Dec. 20 vote on its proposed qualifying transaction with CHC Student Housing Corp. We would view a successful vote favourably and calculate that it could add ~$0.30-$0.40 to our DC.A NAV. Currently, we do not include the SPAC in our NAV calculation.

Our undiscounted NAV is $13.52 (previously $14.88). We apply a 20% discount to yield our price target of $11.00 (previously $12.00). We maintain our BUY rating. Please see Figure 1 for our NAV sensitivity analysis.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2016, 01:09:37 PM by sculpin »

Rod

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #62 on: December 14, 2016, 03:28:48 PM »
Anyone interested in following the construction of the Parq Vancouver development should go to this link:

http://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=213941&page=25

Lots of up to date pictures. Opening is scheduled for September 2017.

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #63 on: January 11, 2017, 08:26:27 AM »
The destruction of shareholder value in this Dundee subsidiary company has been epic. From $1.50 per share in 2007 to the current $0.03 offer price. From a multi billion $ bungled Spanish offshore natural gas storage to natural gas under Lake Erie to windmills in Africa of all things. Not sure how much DC.A has ploughed into this but it has been substantial....

Dundee Energy to review LP's strategic options

2017-01-10 20:19 ET - News Release
Shares issued 188,268,994
DEN Close 2017-01-10 C$ 0.035

Mr. Bruce Sherley reports

DUNDEE ENERGY LIMITED ANNOUNCES INITIATION OF STRATEGIC REVIEW PROCESS FOR DUNDEE ENERGY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP

Dundee Energy Ltd.'s board of directors has determined to initiate a process to identify, examine and consider a range of strategic alternatives available with respect to enhancing the value of its investment in Dundee Energy LP (DELP).

Strategic alternatives may include, but are not limited to, a debt restructuring, a sale of all or a material portion of the assets of DELP, either in one transaction or in a series of transactions, the outright sale of DELP, or business combination or other transaction involving DELP and a third party, and/or alternative financing initiatives.

Dundee Energy has engaged Dundee Capital Partners, an unrelated entity, and CW Leigh Cassidy of Whitewater Inc. as its financial advisers to advise the corporation in connection with this comprehensive review and analysis of strategic alternatives in connection with the process.

Dundee Energy has not set a definitive schedule to complete its identification, examination and consideration of strategic alternatives with respect to DELP. Given the nature of the process, the corporation does not intend to provide updates until such time as the board of directors approves a definitive transaction or strategic alternative, or otherwise determines that further disclosure is advisable. Dundee Energy cautions that there are no guarantees that the review of strategic alternatives will result in a transaction, or if a transaction is undertaken, as to its terms or timing. The strategic alternatives review process has not been initiated as a result of receiving any transaction proposal.

As previously disclosed, DELP and its lenders have been in continuing discussions regarding the reduction of DELP's borrowings. As a result of these discussions, the terms of DELP's credit facility have been amended to require that DELP reduce borrowings under its operating facilities to $55.0-million by Jan. 13, 2017. This represents a reduction of approximately $3.0-million in borrowings under DELP's operating facilities as at Dec. 31, 2016.

About Dundee Energy

Dundee Energy is a Canadian-based oil and natural gas company with a mandate to create long-term value for its shareholders through the exploration, development, production and marketing of oil and natural gas, and through other high-impact energy projects. Dundee Energy holds interests, both directly and indirectly, in the largest accumulation of producing oil and gas assets in Ontario, and, through a preferred share investment, in certain exploration and evaluation programs for oil and natural gas offshore Tunisia.

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #64 on: March 02, 2017, 10:12:10 AM »
DC.A closing in once again on its 52 week low. One insider actively selling over the last 2 months....


Date   Transaction
Date   Insider Name   Ownership
Type   Securities   Nature of transaction   Volume or Value   Price
Feb 6/17   Feb 6/17   Goodman, Daniel   Indirect Ownership   Subordinate Voting Shares Class A   10 - Disposition in the public market   -400   $5.40
Feb 6/17   Feb 2/17   Goodman, Daniel   Indirect Ownership   Subordinate Voting Shares Class A   10 - Disposition in the public market   -1,800   $5.40
Feb 6/17   Feb 1/17   Goodman, Daniel   Indirect Ownership   Subordinate Voting Shares Class A   10 - Disposition in the public market   -15,200   $5.40
Jan 31/17   Jan 30/17   Goodman, Daniel   Indirect Ownership   Subordinate Voting Shares Class A   10 - Disposition in the public market   -300   $5.45
Jan 30/17   Jan 27/17   Goodman, Daniel   Indirect Ownership   Subordinate Voting Shares Class A   10 - Disposition in the public market   -5,200   $5.45
Jan 30/17   Jan 25/17   Goodman, Daniel   Indirect Ownership   Subordinate Voting Shares Class A   10 - Disposition in the public market   -8,900   $5.59
Jan 9/17   Jan 3/17   Goodman, Daniel   Indirect Ownership   Subordinate Voting Shares Class A   10 - Disposition in the public market   -1,500   $5.95

Cardboard

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #65 on: March 16, 2017, 09:35:04 AM »
There is a very wide gap that has now formed in expected return between DC.PR.B and DC.PR.D.

I was pointing out in early December that the DC.PR.B had really sold off and were quite attractive in the $13.50 range with a yield of 10.5%. Now they have rallied around 25% since that time and the yield has dropped to 8.5%. However, the DC.PR.D have moved up by only about 13% since that point and now still yield 8.15% which is the highest floater that I know of.

What is interesting is that if you assume conversion into the "B"'s in September 2019, the dividend distribution from the "D"'s over a 5 year period plus the appreciation to catch up to the "B"'s represents an annual yield of 12.5%.

That is a very wide spread between fixed rate reset preferreds and floaters which on my screen vary from 0.5% to 1.9% using the same math.

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sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #66 on: March 29, 2017, 09:52:11 PM »
2016 results tomorrow...

Will be interested on how the clean up of their stable of troubled investments is progressing. Perhaps the rise in the price of oil - hopefully to $60+ by this Summer - may save some of the investment in United Hydrocarbons Intl. Hard to believe that Dundee had invested a total of more than $400mm in this highly speculative exploration junior in the heart of sub Sahara Africa in the country of Chad - this amounts to over $7 per share. For perspective the DC.A current market cap is $234 million at $4/share current price.

As at September 30, 2016, the Corporation’s carrying value of its 85% interest in UHIC was $189.5 million, and was net of an
impairment of $215.2 million recognized in the third quarter of the prior year. Additional information regarding UHIC may be
accessed at www.unitedhydrocarbon.com.




Dundee Corp. senior management will host a conference call on Friday, March 31, 2017, at 10 a.m. ET, to discuss the company's fourth quarter and year-end 2016 results.

Fourth quarter and year-end 2016 results conference call and webcast

Date:  Friday, March 31, 2017

Time:  10 a.m. ET

Webcast:  at the company's website

Live call:  1-888-231-8191 or 1-647-427-7450

Replay:  1-855-859-2056 or 1-416-849-0833

Replay passcode:  87507054

Dundee plans to issue a news release containing the fourth quarter and year-end 2016 results after market close on Thursday, March 30, 2017, and will also post it to the company's website. The conference call will be archived for replay until Friday, April 7, 2017, at midnight. An archive of the audio webcast will also be available at Dundee's website.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2017, 10:29:20 PM by sculpin »

Cardboard

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #67 on: March 30, 2017, 10:57:31 AM »
No doubt that a lot of past mistakes have been made.

With year end financials, more write-offs on their investments is a possibility. However, even after assuming drastic further write-offs, the preferreds remain well protected IMO and a very attractive security out there especially the DC.PR.D.

As of September 30, they mentioned $14.23/share of net asset value or around $900 million that would have to be eroded before par on the preferreds would be impacted.

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sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #68 on: March 30, 2017, 11:27:35 AM »
No doubt that a lot of past mistakes have been made.

With year end financials, more write-offs on their investments is a possibility. However, even after assuming drastic further write-offs, the preferreds remain well protected IMO and a very attractive security out there especially the DC.PR.D.

As of September 30, they mentioned $14.23/share of net asset value or around $900 million that would have to be eroded before par on the preferreds would be impacted.

Carboard

Agreed that the prefs are still very secure.  If oil comes back then there may be a chance the net asset value stays above $10. I believe the Taurx is a complete write-off which they have listed at $72mm. As well, the UHIC is carried at $189mm but last financing I believe was at $0.10 and they have just under 600mm shares or 85% - I would guess UHIC is worth <$60mm unless we get Brent > $60bbl by Summer - this would represent a $2/share impairment. Also Dundee Energy is most likely worthless as the Castor appeal failed - unless again oil & southern Ontario natural gas stage a remarkable price recovery soon. Many of the other investments are not strong & continue to bleed - Dundee Sustainable, Blue Goose, Agrimarine, Dundee 360 problems with Parq, on and on. Believe the debt in Dundee Energy & Blue Goose (about $100mm total) would be most likely covered by sale of those assets so total parentco debt is only about $90mm.   DC is an investment conglomerate gone very wrong & should be the poster boy for diworsification and the ills of multiple voting shares controlling publicly traded corporations.

That said the pref pricing & even the common at $4 already reflect the disaster that has been their portfolio. My guess is real NAV right now is about $7.50/share but there are a lot of unknowns to the OPMI. Have bought the common at around $4 recently. For those that believe in oil >$70 and that management & the Board of DC are turning over a new leaf then the warrants at $0.75 (Strike $6 til 30 June 2019) are an interesting levered play. All IMHO of course.

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #69 on: May 10, 2017, 11:07:18 AM »
No doubt that a lot of past mistakes have been made.

With year end financials, more write-offs on their investments is a possibility. However, even after assuming drastic further write-offs, the preferreds remain well protected IMO and a very attractive security out there especially the DC.PR.D.

As of September 30, they mentioned $14.23/share of net asset value or around $900 million that would have to be eroded before par on the preferreds would be impacted.

Carboard

Agreed that the prefs are still very secure.  If oil comes back then there may be a chance the net asset value stays above $10. I believe the Taurx is a complete write-off which they have listed at $72mm. As well, the UHIC is carried at $189mm but last financing I believe was at $0.10 and they have just under 600mm shares or 85% - I would guess UHIC is worth <$60mm unless we get Brent > $60bbl by Summer - this would represent a $2/share impairment. Also Dundee Energy is most likely worthless as the Castor appeal failed - unless again oil & southern Ontario natural gas stage a remarkable price recovery soon. Many of the other investments are not strong & continue to bleed - Dundee Sustainable, Blue Goose, Agrimarine, Dundee 360 problems with Parq, on and on. Believe the debt in Dundee Energy & Blue Goose (about $100mm total) would be most likely covered by sale of those assets so total parentco debt is only about $90mm.   DC is an investment conglomerate gone very wrong & should be the poster boy for diworsification and the ills of multiple voting shares controlling publicly traded corporations.

That said the pref pricing & even the common at $4 already reflect the disaster that has been their portfolio. My guess is real NAV right now is about $7.50/share but there are a lot of unknowns to the OPMI. Have bought the common at around $4 recently. For those that believe in oil >$70 and that management & the Board of DC are turning over a new leaf then the warrants at $0.75 (Strike $6 til 30 June 2019) are an interesting levered play. All IMHO of course.

This is a move they had to make and is not too bad in terms of moving the United project into better operating hands and securing some liquidity ($47mm Canadian). The potential upside of the payments on first oil in the respective blocks ($50mm total US $) and the royalty (below) are attractive as well....

United will retain a royalty of 10 per cent on Doba production and a 5-per-cent royalty on all block H production, payable unless the average price of Brent crude oil is less than $45 (U.S.) for a quarter.


DC.A was probably a screaming buy under $3 Cdn.


Dundee to sell United Hydrocarbon Chad to Delonex

2017-05-10 08:32 ET - News Release
Shares issued 3,598,203
DC.PR.E Close 2017-05-09 C$ 23.75

Mr. Gabriel Ollivier reports

UNITED HYDROCARBON INTERNATIONAL CORP. ENTERS INTO AGREEMENT WITH DELONEX

Dundee Corp.'s subsidiary, United Hydrocarbon International Corp. (UHIC), has entered into an agreement with Delonex Energy Ltd. pursuant to which Delonex will acquire United Hydrocarbon Chad Ltd. (UHCL), a wholly owned subsidiary of United, and the holder of United's production sharing contract (PSC) in the Republic of Chad.

Delonex will pay $35-million (U.S.) on closing of the transaction, and will pay an additional $50-million (U.S.) if first oil is achieved, including $20-million (U.S.) for first oil at Doba and $30-million (U.S.) for first oil at block H. United will retain a royalty of 10 per cent on Doba production and a 5-per-cent royalty on all block H production, payable unless the average price of Brent crude oil is less than $45 (U.S.) for a quarter.

Under the terms of the agreement, Delonex has committed $65-million (U.S.) in financing within two years of the closing date for a comprehensive exploration program for the assets in Chad, and has committed, subject to commerciality being achieved, $35-million (U.S.) for development in Doba. The exploration program will include 2-D and 3-D seismic programs and three exploration wells, representing a significant increase in activity compared with UHCL's current obligations.

The agreement will benefit Chad by ensuring the rapid exploration and development of Chad's hydrocarbon resources across the PSC and including in block H, where there has been limited activity since the mid-1970s.

Delonex is a sub-Saharan oil and gas company focused on exploration, development and production. Delonex is currently active in Ethiopia, Kenya and Mozambique and the proposed transaction in Chad is part of the company's strategy for expanding its portfolio in central and West Africa.

Delonex is led by a management team with a proven record in discovering, developing and operating world-class, on-shore basins and building and operating pipeline infrastructure. Its core leadership team previously worked together at Cairn India, where it established a recoverable resource base of 1.2 billion barrels of oil on shore in Rajasthan, India, with plateau production of about 200,000 barrels of oil per day. It also managed the successful financing and execution of integrated upstream and mid-stream development projects with a combined capital spend of over $4-billion (U.S.). The projects included development wells, processing facilities and the world's longest (about 700 kilometres) continuously heated and insulated oil pipeline with an export terminal. Delonex is backed by a group of global investors with extensive oil and gas experience, led by global private equity firm Warburg Pincus and the International Finance Corp. (a part of the World Bank group).

The transaction is subject to a number of conditions including approval from the government of Chad and UHIC shareholder approval. A special meeting of UHIC shareholders to approve the agreement is anticipated to be held by June 30, 2017.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2017, 11:09:10 AM by sculpin »