Author Topic: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?  (Read 138043 times)

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #310 on: August 01, 2018, 06:53:59 AM »
Dundee Precious continuing to do well - DC's position worth about $120 million.

GMP research...

Dundee Precious Metals   BUY
DPM-TSX   
Last:   C$3.09
Target:   C$4.90
 
FLASH: 2Q18 results – Chelopech’s solid results lead to improved FY production and cost guidance
 
Last night, DPM reported Q2 results after pre-releasing production earlier this month (refer to our Flash note of July 11). Adj. EPS of $0.08 beat our estimate (and consensus) of $0.05. The variance largely driven by lower G&A. CFPS before changes in working capital, including interest paid was $27mm or $0.15 vs our forecast of $28mm or $0.15 (consensus at $0.16). Operating costs were below our estimates at Chelopech, but offset partly by higher cash cost per tonne smelted at Tsumeb.

As pre-reported, Chelopech had another solid quarter producing 48k oz gold and 8.5mm lbs copper in concentrates (with 55k oz and 10.4mm lbs payable in concentrates sold due to unsold inventory from Q1). Cash cost of $472/oz gold sold in copper concentrates (inclusive of pyrite oz) was lower than our forecast of $579/oz (1Q18 was $574/oz). The lower cash cost is partly due to benefiting from higher grades and recoveries as well as lower unit cost ($35.62/t processed vs $37.23/t in Q1).

At Tsumeb, 46.6kt of concentrate smelted in Q2 had a cash cost of $548/tonne smelted vs. our estimate of $494/t. Cash cost was negatively impacted by lower volumes of concentrate smelted along with lower acid by-product credits (due to the 24-day annual maintenance shutdown in May), higher electricity and labour cost, a stronger ZAR relative to the U.S. dollar. Despite the higher costs at Tsumeb in Q2, we expect cash costs to improve in the coming quarters driven stronger operational performance following the maintenance shutdown. Furthermore, DPM has put in place additional currency hedges and it has favourably revised 2018 cash cost per tonne smelted guidance to $430-480/t (from $440-500/t).

The smelter has performed well following the annual maintenance shutdown and concentrate smelted in July achieved a new record. At the end of Q2, Tsumeb is sitting at 43% of annual guidance of 220-250kt smelted. We currently model 240kt of concentrate smelted in 2018.

Strong YTD performance at Chelopech results guidance revision: 2018 gold production guidance has been increased by almost 6% or 10k oz (at mid-point of range) relative to original guidance. Chelopech is now expected to produce 180-200k oz gold (previously 165-195k oz) with payable gold in the range of 155-172k oz (previously 140-170k oz). Copper production and sales volumes are unchanged. AISC was also improved by $50/oz to $640–755/oz (from $640–855/oz previously) based on modestly lower unit cost and deferred sustaining capex (reflecting timing of expenditures). Refer to Figure 1 for details on updated guidance.

We currently model 2018 full-year production of 188k oz gold and 36.4mm lbs copper which is within revised guidance and AISC of $759/oz.

Krumovgrad’s construction progressing well but slightly behind schedule – first gold still expected in late 2018: The project was ~71% complete at the end of June (compared to project schedule of 78%). Capex remains unchanged ($164mm-$168mm budget - with $111.6mm spent at the end of June) and first concentrate production is still expected in late Q4.

Impact: Positive on improved guidance

Operationally, Chelopech had another solid quarter with cash cost coming below our expectations. The strong operational performance in H1 led to a positive guidance revision. We believe Chelopech is well positioned to meet the updated gold production guidance having produced ~55% of (mid-range) annual gold production in H1.

With the annual maintenance at Tsumeb complete, the smelter should see stronger operational performance in the coming quarters.

Recommendation: Maintain BUY rating and C$4.90 target


sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #311 on: August 07, 2018, 02:41:30 PM »


Dundee to release Q2 2018 results Aug. 14

2018-08-07 17:36 ET - News Release


Mr. John Vincic reports

DUNDEE CORPORATION TO HOST CONFERENCE CALL FOR SECOND QUARTER 2018 RESULTS

Dundee Corp. senior management will host a conference call on Wednesday, Aug. 15, 2018, at 10 a.m. ET to discuss the company's second-quarter 2018 results.

Second-quarter 2018 results conference call and webcast:

Date:   Wednesday, Aug. 15, 2018

Time:  10 a.m. ET

Webcast:  see company's website

Live Call:  1-855-859-2056 or 1-416-849-0833

Replay passcode:  3482877

Dundee plans to issue a news release containing the second-quarter 2018 results after market close on Tuesday, Aug. 14, 2018, and will also post it to the company's website. The conference call will be archived for replay until Wednesday, Aug. 22, 2018, at midnight. An archive of the audio webcast will also be available at Dundee's website.

petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #312 on: August 08, 2018, 08:20:15 AM »
I'm enjoying the fact that the common is down 5% just because they set a date for announcing results! I get the sense Mr. Market has inverted "no news is good news" into "all news is bad news"! And understandably so, but if they've made progress on converting more holdings to cash and have something intelligent to say about future strategy, this could be a positive q.

Cardboard

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #313 on: August 08, 2018, 08:46:42 AM »
Goodman will probably say that he needs a few more months to review the portfolio...

Anyway bought a bit of stock and preferreds today on this craziness. You were correct Petec, summer months, no announcement of doing anything and things can get crazy cheap.

Cardboard

petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #314 on: August 08, 2018, 08:53:38 AM »
Goodman will probably say that he needs a few more months to review the portfolio...

Anyway bought a bit of stock and preferreds today on this craziness. You were correct Petec, summer months, no announcement of doing anything and things can get crazy cheap.

Cardboard

The upside in this thing if either Parq or Chad work out is immense.

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #315 on: August 08, 2018, 09:22:54 AM »
Goodman will probably say that he needs a few more months to review the portfolio...

Anyway bought a bit of stock and preferreds today on this craziness. You were correct Petec, summer months, no announcement of doing anything and things can get crazy cheap.

Cardboard

The upside in this thing if either Parq or Chad work out is immense.

Recent reviews of Parq seems to be improving...

https://www.tripadvisor.ca/Attraction_Review-g154943-d12945737-Reviews-Parq_Vancouver-Vancouver_British_Columbia.html

petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #316 on: August 08, 2018, 09:30:05 AM »
Good. They need to!

Rod

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #317 on: August 08, 2018, 11:37:01 AM »
Goodman will probably say that he needs a few more months to review the portfolio...

Anyway bought a bit of stock and preferreds today on this craziness. You were correct Petec, summer months, no announcement of doing anything and things can get crazy cheap.

Cardboard


The upside in this thing if either Parq or Chad work out is immense.

Recent reviews of Parq seems to be improving...

https://www.tripadvisor.ca/Attraction_Review-g154943-d12945737-Reviews-Parq_Vancouver-Vancouver_British_Columbia.html

I was in Vancouver a few days ago so I stopped by Parq to take a look. I was there around noon so wasn't expecting it to be too busy. The casino was doing good business, more than I would have expected for that time of day. There was a lot of people checking in and out of hotels. The restaurants that I saw were not open at the time except for Honey Salt and Market East. There were people in them buy not a lot. The building itself is impressive. The exterior is beautiful and the interior is very clean and felt like a nice place to spend time. I would call it "classy" but coming from me that might not mean much. Hard to judge business from just one brief visit, but if there is a weak spot currently I can imagine it is the restaurants.

doc75

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #318 on: August 09, 2018, 08:38:57 AM »
Perhaps the pressure on the B/D prefs reflect a fear or expectation that the company will turn off interest payments to preserve capital.

The Goodmans don't own any of these series so it would not hurt their personal returns.




petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #319 on: August 09, 2018, 09:21:45 AM »
Perhaps the pressure on the B/D prefs reflect a fear or expectation that the company will turn off interest payments to preserve capital.

The Goodmans don't own any of these series so it would not hurt their personal returns.

Don't those shares get votes if they do that? I think they have some rights which the Goodmans might want to avoid triggering.