Author Topic: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?  (Read 123943 times)

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #330 on: August 14, 2018, 08:32:34 AM »
I read the comment about the ability to repay one pref with common was a comment about liquidity, not solvency. It's a risk reducer and therefore a good thing. I may be wrong but that's what I thought he meant.

I agree, it's about preserving the option value of the equity especially versus the current share price which shows little to no optimism!

FWIW, I keep buying the DC.PR.B/D as it drops.

At the AGM, John Goodman, also mentioned that he was interested in buying more common and preferred. Not sure why we haven't seen any insider buying unless they think they are restricted.

Anyone buying the DC.PR.E, yet? The YTM is looking very good at these levels if you believe they will be cash settled.
Top 5 positions: ELF IAM GCM.NT/GCM PIF EFR.DB


Lakesider

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #331 on: August 14, 2018, 02:49:48 PM »
I read the comment about the ability to repay one pref with common was a comment about liquidity, not solvency. It's a risk reducer and therefore a good thing. I may be wrong but that's what I thought he meant.

Spot on.

sculpin

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doc75

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #333 on: August 14, 2018, 06:21:02 PM »
Based on these reviews, the Douglas & JW Marriott are doing most things right & guests seems impressed. Pricing seems to be very solid this Summer...

https://www.tripadvisor.ca/Hotel_Review-g154943-d12619583-Reviews-or10-The_DOUGLAS_Autograph_Collection-Vancouver_British_Columbia.html

https://www.tripadvisor.ca/Hotel_Review-g154943-d12619570-Reviews-JW_Marriott_Parq_Vancouver-Vancouver_British_Columbia.html#REVIEWS

Q2 results are out.  It appears Parq generated roughly the same revenue in Q2 as it did in Q1, and they've taken a big write down on the asset.  I am surprised by how poorly it performed heading into prime tourist season.   Will be interesting to hear whether gaming revenues took a dive, because one would certainly expect hotel revs to be up.

I haven't dug deep, but overall looks like a very bleak quarter.


Rod

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #334 on: August 14, 2018, 06:21:37 PM »
Q2 is out. Parq results not good--still running at an operating loss and now a writedown. Will be interesting to hear the conference call tomorrow.

petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #335 on: August 14, 2018, 11:20:49 PM »
Results look pretty abysmal. Parq equity written down to nil and the preferred shares written down somewhat too, on changes to long term forecasts. They continue to contribute capital higher up the stack but thereís so much debt it doesnít give them much protection. I struggle to believe this trophy asset could be a zero but the accounting is moving that way.

On the positive side thereís progress at DPM & DST, and first wells will be drilled in Chad in 3q.

No obvious signs of major decisions such as operations being moved into discontinued.

There are still significant potential writedowns to come (e.g. TauRx) and one of the two possible operating cash flow generators (Parq) doesnít look like itís working. The other is Chad and thatís speculative. Other holdings are illiquid or are the last things they want to sell (DPM would be a dumb sale IMHO as itís making clear progress that isnít in the price yet). Iíd be cutting those pref dividends if I was them!

petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #336 on: August 15, 2018, 01:46:40 AM »
FWIW my updated base case SOTP is $1.32/common share. I have:

- Listed equities at market (DPM, ECS, DST at current price and "other listed" at the 2q18 BV of 32).
- TauRx at 0
- Parq at 25 which is $60m of ebitda on 10x less debt; this ought to be conservative but at this point, who knows?
- All of other private investments, debt, Android, and Sarea at 50% of their carrying values because I don't have the visibility to know otherwise.
- Union at 75% of the value of ICC (since they can't sell it) and nothing for non-ICC assets
- Blue Goose and Agrimarine at 0
- Dundee Securities and D360 at book value
- United Hydrocarbons at 0
- Holdco cash at 20 not 30 because they have costs

Adds up to 325 in assets, less
- Recourse debt 10
- All prefs at par (I've considered using market but they don't have the cash to buy back and if things go right the prefs will rerate)
- 27 in other holdco liabilities

That feels to me like it's sufficiently conservative. There's a decent chance almost all of the assets could be worth more than I have them down for. I just want to see some real activity to convert nonperformers to cash, buy back some prefs, and focus down on the assets that are really likely to move the needle.

Sportgamma

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #337 on: August 15, 2018, 07:09:46 AM »
Isn't this summary missing some non-core portfolio investments? According to the Q2 filing, public securities alone had a fair value of $164 m.


petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #338 on: August 15, 2018, 07:21:27 AM »
My numbers are a mix of the MDA breakout for investments (eg Parq) and the segment breakdown at the back of the financial statements for the book values of consolidated holdings (eg Dundee Securities). Your 164 consists of direct equity holdings that arenít consolidated and includes DPM+ECS+unspecified other. ECS has fallen since. The 164 does not include ICC (held through Union) or DST (consolidated).

P32 of the MD&A is useful for this.

It does take a bit of picking away to understand where everything is.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2018, 07:33:25 AM by petec »

Rod

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #339 on: August 15, 2018, 07:48:51 AM »
I think the chance that the E prefs will be converted to common at $2 is growing. If that were to happen it would, obviously, not be good for the E holders. The common shares would lose some risk, but at the cost of losing a lot of the potential upside. The winner in this scenario would be the B and D prefs, which would be safer and not lose any upside.