Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3437773 times)

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10630 on: October 16, 2018, 09:29:07 AM »
Now the government wants the one count Lamberth declined to dismiss to also be dismissed.

http://gselinks.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/13-mc-01288-0089-Motion-for-Reconsideration-10-16-18.pdf

How much merit does this argument have? Can Lamberth change his mind at this point?

They basically argue the following...
"Judge Lamberth, we know we lied to your face in your original ruling.  So sorry about that.  But please consider your lack of legal logic (i.e. you're an idiot) as grounds for changing your mind.  Thanks!"

Except that Lamberth already upheld the dismissal for everything else even after finding out about the Fairholme discovery documents. If he really took so much umbrage to the defendants' prior behavior, wouldn't he have found more than just one count to allow to proceed?


Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10631 on: October 16, 2018, 09:31:31 AM »
Now the government wants the one count Lamberth declined to dismiss to also be dismissed.

http://gselinks.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/13-mc-01288-0089-Motion-for-Reconsideration-10-16-18.pdf

How much merit does this argument have? Can Lamberth change his mind at this point?

They basically argue the following...
"Judge Lamberth, we know we lied to your face in your original ruling.  So sorry about that.  But please consider your lack of legal logic (i.e. you're an idiot) as grounds for changing your mind.  Thanks!"

Except that Lamberth already upheld the dismissal for everything else even after finding out about the Fairholme discovery documents. If he really took so much umbrage to the defendants' prior behavior, wouldn't he have found more than just one count to allow to proceed?

Perhaps.
Take 4 minutes and listen to it. "Stars" by Skillet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbLJyjfyACM

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10632 on: October 16, 2018, 12:03:30 PM »
recent commentary in the FnF Twitter/blog universe is fairly weak.  it's like they think the guys in charge are lying with some secret alternative strategy.

it seems quite clear that mnuchin wants to do this legislatively.  It's not impossible to get done, it's permanent, and the backstop MBS-level govt guarantee is important to consistently have access to the global capital markets (as a replacement for the implied guarantee on the 2 entities, which everyone wants gone).

imo people should just accept this is the primary plan and focus their writing energy on more relevant things like stopping the NWS immediately or creating a new $15bn buffer instead of $3bn.

blackcoffee

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10633 on: October 16, 2018, 12:47:53 PM »
recent commentary in the FnF Twitter/blog universe is fairly weak.  it's like they think the guys in charge are lying with some secret alternative strategy.

it seems quite clear that mnuchin wants to do this legislatively.  It's not impossible to get done, it's permanent, and the backstop MBS-level govt guarantee is important to consistently have access to the global capital markets (as a replacement for the implied guarantee on the 2 entities, which everyone wants gone).

imo people should just accept this is the primary plan and focus their writing energy on more relevant things like stopping the NWS immediately or creating a new $15bn buffer instead of $3bn.

The commentary is not as weak as the odds of legislation happening. It's been a decade and nothing. Polarization is at an all time high. I wouldn't say impossible but it's damn close.

Additionally, do we know how current beneficiaries of the GSE charters are reacting politically to the admin threatening their entire lines of business? I know for a fact that these businesses are valued at hundreds of millions of dollars. Do we think the people with pull at that level are going to go quietly? Not bloodly likely.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10634 on: October 16, 2018, 12:58:35 PM »
by involving congress there will be a controversy regarding duty to serve underserved neighborhoods/low income housing.  you eliminate GSE charters and make all guarantors simple business entities without a public purpose and democrats will scream bloody murder (as well as some republicans).  this will not be a simple piece of legislation by any means, and given the animosity between the parties I am doubtful that this can be passed on a bi-partisan basis...especially when I expect all of the nonGSE future guarantors will balk at low income housing mandates

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10635 on: October 16, 2018, 12:59:41 PM »
recent commentary in the FnF Twitter/blog universe is fairly weak.  it's like they think the guys in charge are lying with some secret alternative strategy.

it seems quite clear that mnuchin wants to do this legislatively.  It's not impossible to get done, it's permanent, and the backstop MBS-level govt guarantee is important to consistently have access to the global capital markets (as a replacement for the implied guarantee on the 2 entities, which everyone wants gone).

imo people should just accept this is the primary plan and focus their writing energy on more relevant things like stopping the NWS immediately or creating a new $15bn buffer instead of $3bn.
Increasing the buffer to 15 bn will only solidify the status quo. The larger the buffer, the lower the urgency for a comprehensive fix. The way to push legislation and reach a final solution is to remove the sweep and recapitalize. Odds are both lobby groups and legislators will move fast to contain what they will hate the most: a release.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10636 on: October 16, 2018, 01:13:27 PM »
No one is buying it. The legislative solution is dead. It has been 10 years. This admin had control over both houses, lots of apperances on TV and all turned out fake promises. They keep fighting in court with lies and continue to loot private property. No one believes anything will change as repealing the charter and explicit guarantee requires congress and it is next to impossible with varying ideology on affordable housing. Admin solution is the only way:  stop NWS, cancel SPSA, relist on exchange, start paying dividends again and so on. Simple baby steps.


recent commentary in the FnF Twitter/blog universe is fairly weak.  it's like they think the guys in charge are lying with some secret alternative strategy.

it seems quite clear that mnuchin wants to do this legislatively.  It's not impossible to get done, it's permanent, and the backstop MBS-level govt guarantee is important to consistently have access to the global capital markets (as a replacement for the implied guarantee on the 2 entities, which everyone wants gone).

imo people should just accept this is the primary plan and focus their writing energy on more relevant things like stopping the NWS immediately or creating a new $15bn buffer instead of $3bn.


I disagree.  Actually, no (serious) one is buying the administrative solution given where the shares are trading.

Reform has failed for 10 years in Congress because during 8 of them there was no Treasury leadership for action, and the remaining 2 there was too wide of a gap between the House Republican idealogues and Democratic senators needed (60 votes).  going forward, those 2 dynamics are likely to change in 2019.   

the reality is it appears like it's going legislative for at least a year, even if everyone here wished otherwise.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10637 on: October 16, 2018, 01:16:14 PM »
recent commentary in the FnF Twitter/blog universe is fairly weak.  it's like they think the guys in charge are lying with some secret alternative strategy.

it seems quite clear that mnuchin wants to do this legislatively.  It's not impossible to get done, it's permanent, and the backstop MBS-level govt guarantee is important to consistently have access to the global capital markets (as a replacement for the implied guarantee on the 2 entities, which everyone wants gone).

imo people should just accept this is the primary plan and focus their writing energy on more relevant things like stopping the NWS immediately or creating a new $15bn buffer instead of $3bn.

The commentary is not as weak as the odds of legislation happening. It's been a decade and nothing. Polarization is at an all time high. I wouldn't say impossible but it's damn close.

Additionally, do we know how current beneficiaries of the GSE charters are reacting politically to the admin threatening their entire lines of business? I know for a fact that these businesses are valued at hundreds of millions of dollars. Do we think the people with pull at that level are going to go quietly? Not bloodly likely.


they might not have a choice.  It seems like the Tsy / OMB wants to go with the MBA plan, and likely so do the 2019 Republicans in Congress.  What's left is carving out some $ for affordable housing to get the Dems on board.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10638 on: October 16, 2018, 01:19:07 PM »
by involving congress there will be a controversy regarding duty to serve underserved neighborhoods/low income housing.  you eliminate GSE charters and make all guarantors simple business entities without a public purpose and democrats will scream bloody murder (as well as some republicans).  this will not be a simple piece of legislation by any means, and given the animosity between the parties I am doubtful that this can be passed on a bi-partisan basis...especially when I expect all of the nonGSE future guarantors will balk at low income housing mandates


there is a lot of money from Treasury's current warrant value (or other areas) that can be carved out for explicit affordable housing mandates that might appeal to the Democrats even more than the status quo.  this is likely why Mnuchin keeps saying that housing reform needs to be comprehensive and involve HUD also.

blackcoffee

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10639 on: October 16, 2018, 01:45:10 PM »
recent commentary in the FnF Twitter/blog universe is fairly weak.  it's like they think the guys in charge are lying with some secret alternative strategy.

it seems quite clear that mnuchin wants to do this legislatively.  It's not impossible to get done, it's permanent, and the backstop MBS-level govt guarantee is important to consistently have access to the global capital markets (as a replacement for the implied guarantee on the 2 entities, which everyone wants gone).

imo people should just accept this is the primary plan and focus their writing energy on more relevant things like stopping the NWS immediately or creating a new $15bn buffer instead of $3bn.

The commentary is not as weak as the odds of legislation happening. It's been a decade and nothing. Polarization is at an all time high. I wouldn't say impossible but it's damn close.

Additionally, do we know how current beneficiaries of the GSE charters are reacting politically to the admin threatening their entire lines of business? I know for a fact that these businesses are valued at hundreds of millions of dollars. Do we think the people with pull at that level are going to go quietly? Not bloodly likely.


they might not have a choice.  It seems like the Tsy / OMB wants to go with the MBA plan, and likely so do the 2019 Republicans in Congress.  What's left is carving out some $ for affordable housing to get the Dems on board.

assuming they have a majority.. which they may not.