Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 2883773 times)

undervalued

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11270 on: January 22, 2019, 10:26:12 AM »
Does anyone know if Eddie Lampert ESL owns any FNMA or related securities? If not, why not? He worked with Moelis and friend with Mnuchin. Seems like easy money if everything is going the way it is?
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers


Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11271 on: January 22, 2019, 10:32:51 AM »
I have some preferred and commons left. I am keeping the preferreds. Shall I sell commons?  If I sell both now, would pay for another semester. If I hold preferreds till $25 and commons like $17.00 as per Moelis, at least 3 more semesters and would be so happy. I can’t make up my mind. In one way, it wouldn’t matter if they tank again as I have already cried so many times over paying the tuition. I cannot believe I have spent so much time over this investment, wish had more money. Someday I will make it like many of you.

Use COB&F to gather information, develop and/or test your thesis, compare alternatives, etc.  Then make the decision on your own. 

You should know this, but I want to offer a gentle reminder to avoid asking strangers on a message board what to do ("should I buy X, should I buy Y").  Personally, whenever I'm studying a company and have the urge to ask somebody "what would you do" I know I'm in over my head and I don't invest in it.  It takes a certain degree of wisdom to know when you don't know.  I hope that makes sense.
Invest for retirement?  Sure.  But investing in eternity is infinitely more important.  Don't get it twisted.  "...but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys and where thieves do not break in and steal."  Matthew 6:20

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11272 on: January 22, 2019, 10:42:31 AM »
Only thing I see of substance is Moelis plan. It says preferreds going to par and commons around $17.00. If I go by that, I should keep holding? Am I on right track?

I have some preferred and commons left. I am keeping the preferreds. Shall I sell commons?  If I sell both now, would pay for another semester. If I hold preferreds till $25 and commons like $17.00 as per Moelis, at least 3 more semesters and would be so happy. I can’t make up my mind. In one way, it wouldn’t matter if they tank again as I have already cried so many times over paying the tuition. I cannot believe I have spent so much time over this investment, wish had more money. Someday I will make it like many of you.

Use COB&F to gather information, develop and/or test your thesis, compare alternatives, etc.  Then make the decision on your own. 

You should know this, but I want to offer a gentle reminder to avoid asking strangers on a message board what to do ("should I buy X, should I buy Y").  Personally, whenever I'm studying a company and have the urge to ask somebody "what would you do" I know I'm in over my head and I don't invest in it.  It takes a certain degree of wisdom to know when you don't know.  I hope that makes sense.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2019, 10:45:54 AM by emily »

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11273 on: January 22, 2019, 10:57:12 AM »
https://twitter.com/JoshRosner/status/1087785784957173761
5th Cir investor suit development. Democratic legislators filed an #amicus arguing @FHFA is constitutional but neither plaintiffs or government defendants take that view. Amicus appears to want to avoid precedent impact on @CFPB. Settlement may be only way to avoid precedent.
Invest for retirement?  Sure.  But investing in eternity is infinitely more important.  Don't get it twisted.  "...but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys and where thieves do not break in and steal."  Matthew 6:20

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11274 on: January 22, 2019, 12:26:47 PM »
https://twitter.com/JoshRosner/status/1087785784957173761
5th Cir investor suit development. Democratic legislators filed an #amicus arguing @FHFA is constitutional but neither plaintiffs or government defendants take that view. Amicus appears to want to avoid precedent impact on @CFPB. Settlement may be only way to avoid precedent.

I believe it would be a violation of the judicial oath for collins en banc to find fhfa constitutionally structured.  the judicial power under article III extends to "cases and controversies", and collins is a controversy in which no party is seeking a decision that fhfa is constitutionally structured...only amici are asking for that...and amici are not parties to the case and controversy before collins en banc.  Ps still have to win on standing and redressability, and get awarded retrospective relief (void NWS).  but Ps cannot lose on whether fhfa is unconstitutionally structured. 
« Last Edit: January 22, 2019, 12:28:26 PM by cherzeca »

Jcmeg35

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11275 on: January 22, 2019, 03:13:51 PM »
I think it is important to be continuously mindful of opposing viewpoints that disprove the R&R thesis. I would be curious to hear others thoughts' on these positions. I view the majority of them as the prevailing narrative/view that the sell side community has maintained over the last several years (in addition to the MSM & Bloomberg's Anti-GSE leaning).

The one that I find perhaps most compelling is how an announcement of a plan to end NWS, pre-Calabria confirmation, could impact/scuttle his nomination - which might have the impact to push out any major announcements/changes until after he is confirmed.

Also, while I personally think "this time is different", we are still in the early phase where it is still talk, nothing has been firmly announced or implemented, and we could have a repeat of Mnuchin early 17'.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-22/fannie-freddie-share-rallies-go-unchecked-amid-analysts-doubt
« Last Edit: January 22, 2019, 03:15:25 PM by Jcmeg35 »

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11276 on: January 22, 2019, 03:15:59 PM »
https://twitter.com/JoshRosner/status/1087785784957173761
5th Cir investor suit development. Democratic legislators filed an #amicus arguing @FHFA is constitutional but neither plaintiffs or government defendants take that view. Amicus appears to want to avoid precedent impact on @CFPB. Settlement may be only way to avoid precedent.

I believe it would be a violation of the judicial oath for collins en banc to find fhfa constitutionally structured.  the judicial power under article III extends to "cases and controversies", and collins is a controversy in which no party is seeking a decision that fhfa is constitutionally structured...only amici are asking for that...and amici are not parties to the case and controversy before collins en banc.  Ps still have to win on standing and redressability, and get awarded retrospective relief (void NWS).  but Ps cannot lose on whether fhfa is unconstitutionally structured.
I hope you are right and that the amicus carries little weight.

Honestly, that filing made me nervous. I never thought its intention to be preventing setting precedent. Instead, it looked to me more of an attempt to validate the nws by validating FHFA's structure while preserving the status quo. Wouldn't democrats, who just described the old GSEs as lobbying monsters with unparalleled political clout, be terrified of seeing them free again, in spite of the now strong regulator?

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11277 on: January 22, 2019, 03:21:39 PM »
I think it is important to be continuously mindful of opposing viewpoints that disprove the R&R thesis. I would be curious to hear others thoughts' on these positions. I view the majority of them as the prevailing narrative/view that the sell side community has maintained over the last several years (in addition to the MSM & Bloomberg's Anti-GSE leaning).

The one that I find perhaps most compelling is how an announcement of a plan to end NWS, pre-Calabria confirmation, could impact/scuttle his nomination - which might have the impact to push out any major announcements/changes until after he is confirmed.

Also, while I personally think "this time is different", we are still in the early phase where it is still talk, nothing has been firmly announced or implemented, and we could have a repeat of Mnuchin early 17'.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-22/fannie-freddie-share-rallies-go-unchecked-amid-analysts-doubt
Following this line of thought my fear is whether Trump may use this widely advertised push to free the companies (with shares skyrocketing) to negotiate something with Democrats who may prefer the status quo to continue. Watt was all for status quo. And Trump has been radio silent for a reason.

undervalued

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11278 on: January 22, 2019, 04:21:17 PM »
Anyone have a good reason why Otting come out now before Calabria's confirmation? It will create a difficult session later on for him during Q&A.
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11279 on: January 22, 2019, 04:29:09 PM »
Anyone have a good reason why Otting come out now before Calabria's confirmation? It will create a difficult session later on for him during Q&A.

fair point.  however, I think castigating Calabria for something otting does is somewhat irrational...not that the senate wouldn't do that