Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3314057 times)

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11630 on: February 07, 2019, 01:29:20 PM »
reporting from Otting's speech today:  https://twitter.com/vtg2/status/1093608337055338503

no more waiting for Godot

I read this a couple of times and thought, receivership would force legislative action...

Where is Gadot?  :)

I imagine gadot is sitting next to Godot.  otting talked to fhfa staff about a 6-18 month difficult process to raise capital.  a receivership would take years to complete before any new capital raising could begin.  but you stick with gadot


undervalued

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11631 on: February 07, 2019, 03:40:32 PM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fannie-freddie-watchdog-gets-careful-200603331.html

Someone secretly leaking out the plan? Well someone made a lot of money from that.
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11632 on: February 07, 2019, 03:44:04 PM »
that's not the way courts work.  if collins en banc voids NWS under APA claim, it sends case back to district court for that judge to implement remedy.  at that point judge asks parties what works for you both?  imo parties will both say terminate senior pref.  I am not sure what hoops treasury would have to jump through to write a 12 figure check, and Ps have no interest in making treasury jump through those hoops.

I defer to your expertise and judgment on how courts work. The Collins plaintiffs have a stated preference for the cancel-the-seniors route, without even asking for the extra $16.1B back if I remember right. And you're right, Treasury writing a 12-figure check would raise more than just eyebrows. I was just thinking out loud, thanks for showing me that that line of thinking isn't valid.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11633 on: February 07, 2019, 03:52:33 PM »
that's not the way courts work.  if collins en banc voids NWS under APA claim, it sends case back to district court for that judge to implement remedy.  at that point judge asks parties what works for you both?  imo parties will both say terminate senior pref.  I am not sure what hoops treasury would have to jump through to write a 12 figure check, and Ps have no interest in making treasury jump through those hoops.

I defer to your expertise and judgment on how courts work. The Collins plaintiffs have a stated preference for the cancel-the-seniors route, without even asking for the extra $16.1B back if I remember right. And you're right, Treasury writing a 12-figure check would raise more than just eyebrows. I was just thinking out loud, thanks for showing me that that line of thinking isn't valid.

always willing to engage with you Midas. and Ps did say in supplemental briefing for collins en banc that they wanted the $16.2B overage and indeed not even that had to be paid, it could form a credit as against future taxes, and they supplied a precedent for such relief in their brief

DRValue

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11634 on: February 08, 2019, 12:57:10 AM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/amacker/status/1093587069253943296

Senate confirmation next Thursday.

I'd imagine he's confirmed first then plan released after, to avoid tough questions.
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cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11635 on: February 08, 2019, 06:04:43 AM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/amacker/status/1093587069253943296

Senate confirmation next Thursday.

I'd imagine he's confirmed first then plan released after, to avoid tough questions.

that would be the optimal way to orchestrate it

Wiggins

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11636 on: February 08, 2019, 11:18:04 AM »
Is this guy will be our next FHFA director? OMG, all of the fellow travelers are such close friends in this recent video

https://youtu.be/omymZcnY0Fs?t=4658

https://youtu.be/omymZcnY0Fs?t=1443

Thanks for posting the video. Calabria is asked directly about shareholders at 1:55:00 and his response leaves the door wide open. It's worth listening to.


rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11637 on: February 08, 2019, 11:33:08 AM »
Is this guy will be our next FHFA director? OMG, all of the fellow travelers are such close friends in this recent video

https://youtu.be/omymZcnY0Fs?t=4658

https://youtu.be/omymZcnY0Fs?t=1443

Thanks for posting the video. Calabria is asked directly about shareholders at 1:55:00 and his response leaves the door wide open. It's worth listening to.
Good catch, thank you. But for any icing on the cake the Srs. must go.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11638 on: February 08, 2019, 12:36:56 PM »
my take is that Calabria is very smart, and is not afraid to be provocative.  he thinks the NWS is illegal and the conservatorship unwise, since receivership (speaking in 2014 about choices made in 2008-2012) was an option and preferred to this zombie conservatorship that he thinks is illegal.

but I very strongly doubt that Mnuchin et al want to end conservatorship by exiting into receivership in 2019, after GSEs have paid back entire govt advance with interest at original 10% rate.  anyone who watches this presentation and thinks that this is the best evidence of the admin plan should be short.

I expect that the admin plan will call for an explicit cat. govt guarantee that is paid for, and probably provision for competition, but these are congressional to-dos, and I don't see that admin will delay implementing a path to exit out of conservatorship for congress to act on what is a sidecar provision of the plan.

I think Calabria will be instrumental as a fhfa regulator in setting capital and g fees, and this ties into the ability to raise capital for the conservatorship exit.  but Calabria is not a banker and the first priority of the plan will be a banker's priority, raising capital.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11639 on: February 08, 2019, 01:24:21 PM »
Overall, it looks like they want to end this thing now.

What is not clear is if they want to go the admin route alone and completely. It would make more sense from an investor's perspective -ours- to have definite legal backing so as to never see a nws again or, at a minimum, prevent whimsical actions from anyone in power down the road. After all, the biggest threat to us has been politicians. Consider the Trump team being on our side. Wouldn't themselves too like to see further investor protection? The administrative train alone may not be able to fulfill this. Thus, they may think it is essential from the perspective of shareholders (old and new) to see some bill. Perhaps even requested by big boys behind the scene.

So Calabria said something like this in that interview "receivership as an incent for Congress to act". Which ties a bit to Otting's recent leakage as part of a spark. Interestingly, Crapo crap out his outline within weeks after that. So the "incentivizing" route could be part of the plan. Which means when Calabria's hearing comes, the word receivership may float around numerous times. And if I am right, while he may not defend shareholders he may follow the line of thinking he presented in that 2014 interview: no further damage.

If receivership comes up don't let that scare you out of your position. Calabria appears to be in a different page re shareholders and will not look to create artificial damage that is not there and is not justifiable by present circumstances. In comparison to Obama's holy crusade that was more than willing to rewrite physics laws. Calabria is not going to go medieval on us.