Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3009508 times)

Seahug

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11970 on: March 21, 2019, 10:41:09 PM »

Just to add some perspective. My cost basis on the Jrs. is 47 cents or about 2 cents on the dollar. If I were to sell today that would mean 1700% correctness. I would love to be wrong this way only 1 more time in my investing journey.
[/quote]

wow congrats on a 17 bagger. that's life changing. I've never had a public market return >7x.


investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11971 on: March 22, 2019, 05:50:09 AM »
Otting making a big deal of changes coming within 2-4 weeks and then utterly failing to deliver is quite something..

mnuchin to date has been weak on housing finance.  however, he's far smarter than me, so in order of likelihood imo:

-- otting's comments and leaks were staged to spark congress to act.  this may be working given the document released by crapo and 2 days of hearings upcoming.  mnuchin might really want the paid-for explicit guarantee and perhaps is willing to accept the other stuff like multiple guarantors to try to get it through congress.  the Democrats may just go along if the price is right on their programs.

-- otting had his mnuchin nov-2016 moment and the leak blew everything up, back to the drawing board.

-- after the collins arguments, mnuchin hit pause to hear the results because the lamberth and sweeney plaintiffs settlement ask requirements might be adjusted / finalized after this specific ruling is announced.

-- or something else


muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11972 on: March 22, 2019, 06:40:01 AM »
Otting making a big deal of changes coming within 2-4 weeks and then utterly failing to deliver is quite something..

mnuchin to date has been weak on housing finance.  however, he's far smarter than me, so in order of likelihood imo:

-- otting's comments and leaks were staged to spark congress to act.  this may be working given the document released by crapo and 2 days of hearings upcoming.  mnuchin might really want the paid-for explicit guarantee and perhaps is willing to accept the other stuff like multiple guarantors to try to get it through congress.  the Democrats may just go along if the price is right on their programs.

-- otting had his mnuchin nov-2016 moment and the leak blew everything up, back to the drawing board.

-- after the collins arguments, mnuchin hit pause to hear the results because the lamberth and sweeney plaintiffs settlement ask requirements might be adjusted / finalized after this specific ruling is announced.

-- or something else

Good summary.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11973 on: March 22, 2019, 08:28:35 AM »
Otting making a big deal of changes coming within 2-4 weeks and then utterly failing to deliver is quite something..

mnuchin to date has been weak on housing finance.  however, he's far smarter than me, so in order of likelihood imo:

-- otting's comments and leaks were staged to spark congress to act.  this may be working given the document released by crapo and 2 days of hearings upcoming.  mnuchin might really want the paid-for explicit guarantee and perhaps is willing to accept the other stuff like multiple guarantors to try to get it through congress.  the Democrats may just go along if the price is right on their programs.

-- otting had his mnuchin nov-2016 moment and the leak blew everything up, back to the drawing board.

-- after the collins arguments, mnuchin hit pause to hear the results because the lamberth and sweeney plaintiffs settlement ask requirements might be adjusted / finalized after this specific ruling is announced.

-- or something else

I'll take something else. 

I think mnuchin is the lead dog, Phillips serves to do Mnuchin's housing finance work, and no one other than mnuchin is going to make a decision.  I also think mnuchin has been very busy on tax reform, sanctions, china, federal reserve etc and he simply hasn't had the time...and the GSEs can wait, politically as well as tactically.  no need to rush given that both calabria nomination and collins decision will affect calculus. and if congress ever gets around to where they look like they may agree on something, that's fine as it lowers the temperature for internecine exec/congress squabbling.

assuming Calabria is confirmed, collins is something of a positive and congress has hearings that get nowhere, how does this hurt the process if one waits for this to develop?

hardincap

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11974 on: March 22, 2019, 08:57:43 AM »
The white house also said it will release a plan soon, and that was over a month ago? To me it suggests dysfunction. Gasparino reported there is internal disagreement on GSE strategy within white house--I think this is entirely plausible. We have to remember GSEs are little upside and huge downside in the perspective of politicians. The path of least resistance is to do nothing until they need to be bailed out again.

In regards to Collins, I simply dont share everyone's optimism on the prospects of a positive outcome in this case. I had the same belief and feeling on Perry appeals--its better for shareholders to use it as a threat rather than rely on a positive ruling. Also I dont find it a coincidence that Berkowitz, who has much more visibility and insight on the legal cases than we do, has been significantly paring down his position.

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11975 on: March 22, 2019, 09:09:03 AM »
The white house also said it will release a plan soon, and that was over a month ago? To me it suggests dysfunction. Gasparino reported there is internal disagreement on GSE strategy within white house--I think this is entirely plausible. We have to remember GSEs are little upside and huge downside in the perspective of politicians. The path of least resistance is to do nothing until they need to be bailed out again.

In regards to Collins, I simply dont share everyone's optimism on the prospects of a positive outcome in this case. I had the same belief and feeling on Perry appeals--its better for shareholders to use it as a threat rather than rely on a positive ruling. Also I dont find it a coincidence that Berkowitz, who has much more visibility and insight on the legal cases than we do, has been significantly paring down his position.

Well, Bruce is facing severe liquidation pressure and had to sell of everything he has. When he sells suckers like SHLD, it makes sense to book profits on FNMAS to cancel out those losses so his mutual fund investors don't have to worry about taxes or tax loss carry forward.

Didn't his GSE position in terms of % of total portfolio stay flat or even increased a bit?

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11976 on: March 22, 2019, 09:25:12 AM »
fairholme sold down GSEs more than JOE, but basically it is cash, JOE and GSEs at this point. 

I very much like collins.  cant say I know what relief is granted but I like it from a merits point of view

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11977 on: March 22, 2019, 07:48:21 PM »
fairholme sold down GSEs more than JOE, but basically it is cash, JOE and GSEs at this point. 

I very much like collins.  cant say I know what relief is granted but I like it from a merits point of view

Thank you Chris. Your legal perspective is always invaluable here!  :)

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11978 on: March 23, 2019, 04:39:30 AM »
Otting making a big deal of changes coming within 2-4 weeks and then utterly failing to deliver is quite something..

mnuchin to date has been weak on housing finance.  however, he's far smarter than me, so in order of likelihood imo:

-- otting's comments and leaks were staged to spark congress to act.  this may be working given the document released by crapo and 2 days of hearings upcoming.  mnuchin might really want the paid-for explicit guarantee and perhaps is willing to accept the other stuff like multiple guarantors to try to get it through congress.  the Democrats may just go along if the price is right on their programs.

-- otting had his mnuchin nov-2016 moment and the leak blew everything up, back to the drawing board.

-- after the collins arguments, mnuchin hit pause to hear the results because the lamberth and sweeney plaintiffs settlement ask requirements might be adjusted / finalized after this specific ruling is announced.

-- or something else

I'll take something else. 

I think mnuchin is the lead dog, Phillips serves to do Mnuchin's housing finance work, and no one other than mnuchin is going to make a decision.  I also think mnuchin has been very busy on tax reform, sanctions, china, federal reserve etc and he simply hasn't had the time...and the GSEs can wait, politically as well as tactically.  no need to rush given that both calabria nomination and collins decision will affect calculus. and if congress ever gets around to where they look like they may agree on something, that's fine as it lowers the temperature for internecine exec/congress squabbling.

assuming Calabria is confirmed, collins is something of a positive and congress has hearings that get nowhere, how does this hurt the process if one waits for this to develop?

sounds like a lot of excuses.  he has the time for this, or at least to tell phillips what to do/say.   He's not leading for some reason.  Meanwhile, it appears he's sucking up another sweep this quarter which is contrary to his publicly stated priorities.  The longer the wait to start this process, the closer to the election.  It is what it is -- I simply may have misjudged his abilities and/or intentions.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11979 on: March 23, 2019, 12:12:46 PM »
" it appears he's sucking up another sweep this quarter". I would say it is still an open question.