Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3226128 times)

beaufort

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12590 on: May 30, 2019, 11:20:44 AM »
Any Canadians holding prefs in their TFSA or RRSP? 

I know that the the common of both FnF trade in Germany on the major exchange and could be ok with CRA. 

This fellow had common and prefs in his TFSA:  https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/tfsa/how-about-a-big-bet-on-the-u-s-housing-market-for-your-tfsa




cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12591 on: May 30, 2019, 12:14:42 PM »
@allnatural.  I like your work...moelis-like
@beaufort. and I thought you were from South Carolina...

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12592 on: May 30, 2019, 12:16:31 PM »
If (big IF) the capital requirement lines up w/ FHFA's recent proposal pre-Calabria. I have common value at IPO of ~$9 if they win the Collins case (and they receive a $20-25b tax credit), and ~$7 without. This factors in 90-92% dilution (full warrant monetization, 50% of jr pfd converting to new common, and new capital via ipo), 2 years of retained earnings adjusted for commitment fee, and discounting the IPO valuation to 7.5x p/e to entice new investors.

Risk is Calabria wants more capital than the original proposal, common could get smoked with 95-98% dilution. But that would go against best interest of a) raising new private capital (# might be too large, I have it now at ~$60-$80b required via IPO) and b) maximizing treasury's warrant value.

Common isnt a horrible bet here if you believe common sense will prevail.

What conversion ratio to common from preferred are you using in your assessment of the 50% converting? Ive let my feelings about the common known and you hash some of this out. If all it takes is 5-6% more dilution for the common to get "smoked" as you put it, its still enough for me to stay away.

allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12593 on: May 30, 2019, 12:23:24 PM »
Full disclosure i'm still >95% in pfds. I just think the common MAY be interesting here. I'm assuming jr pfds convert at whatever the IPO price ends up being. So in a 50/50 conversion where you get half in new pfds and half in new common, the math works out that you get .5 new shares of a new $25 pfd share w/ market rate coupon, and in the case of a ~$7 IPO, ~1.78x shares of new common, for a total package of $25/shr (PAR).

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12594 on: May 30, 2019, 12:32:54 PM »
https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1134179974485880832
SCOOP: Trump Admin creates timetable to release @FannieMae @FreddieMac from government control; @MarkCalabria seeking reform agreement w Treasury summer's end cease “net-worth sweep” by year's end, poss recap thru massive public offering in 2020 more NOW @FoxBusiness $FNMA $FMCC
Invest for retirement?  Sure.  But investing in eternity is infinitely more important.  Don't get it twisted.  "...but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys and where thieves do not break in and steal."  Matthew 6:20

Jcmeg35

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12595 on: May 30, 2019, 12:37:16 PM »
https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1134179974485880832
SCOOP: Trump Admin creates timetable to release @FannieMae @FreddieMac from government control; @MarkCalabria seeking reform agreement w Treasury summer's end cease “net-worth sweep” by year's end, poss recap thru massive public offering in 2020 more NOW @FoxBusiness $FNMA $FMCC

How is this a "SCOOP"?  This has all previously been publicly stated by Calabria.

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12596 on: May 30, 2019, 12:39:42 PM »
https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1134179974485880832
SCOOP: Trump Admin creates timetable to release @FannieMae @FreddieMac from government control; @MarkCalabria seeking reform agreement w Treasury summer's end cease “net-worth sweep” by year's end, poss recap thru massive public offering in 2020 more NOW @FoxBusiness $FNMA $FMCC

How is this a "SCOOP"?  This has all previously been publicly stated by Calabria.

Agreed, it's not a "scoop" but Gasparino has a need to feel like he is the first to discover stuff.  I posted simply as further confirmation that a plan is coming along.  Now, if the timetable is indeed cemented then that would be a scoop.
Invest for retirement?  Sure.  But investing in eternity is infinitely more important.  Don't get it twisted.  "...but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys and where thieves do not break in and steal."  Matthew 6:20

allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12597 on: May 30, 2019, 12:42:48 PM »
Someone must have sent him Calabrias transcripts from the last 2 weeks and he is repeating it as a scoop

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12598 on: May 30, 2019, 01:01:13 PM »
So I think we are still in the phase of announcing the announcements anticipating when the real announcement will come. So a sell off.

Does this mean sweeping till December? Anybody feels they too are moving the goalpost? What if the market breaks? 2020 recession for the largest IPO? No rush, friends. But not a problem either... Fannie and Freddie (and the sweep) are going nowhere.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2019, 01:10:35 PM by rros »

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12599 on: May 30, 2019, 01:46:52 PM »
fnmas fell out of bed late today on light volume.  wonder what's up?

edit:  maybe someone read gaspo's SCOOPS and didn't like timing.  seems slow, and seems to me that we are all waiting for calabria to come up with a capital rule
« Last Edit: May 30, 2019, 02:00:22 PM by cherzeca »