Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3155655 times)

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12730 on: June 13, 2019, 01:16:29 PM »
Well, he didn't say "in 2020" but rather "by next year" which would mean anytime from now until December 31, 2020.  But who knows... we'll see when the report comes out (hopefully).
Invest for retirement?  Sure.  But investing in eternity is infinitely more important.  Don't get it twisted.  "...but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys and where thieves do not break in and steal."  Matthew 6:20


cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12731 on: June 13, 2019, 01:40:38 PM »
I wonder what happens if congress dawdles and then does not pass a guaranty?  does the capital raising process wait for congress?  for how long?  I would hope the treasury plan has timetables as well as mileposts

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12732 on: June 13, 2019, 01:42:46 PM »
I wonder what happens if congress dawdles and then does not pass a guaranty?  does the capital raising process wait for congress?  for how long?  I would hope the treasury plan has timetables as well as mileposts

I hope so, too.  Looks like that is Calabria's intention...
"We will continue to engage with Treasury to develop a responsible plan to end the conservatorships – with a clear road map and mile markers – and to adjust the Treasury share agreements accordingly."
Invest for retirement?  Sure.  But investing in eternity is infinitely more important.  Don't get it twisted.  "...but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys and where thieves do not break in and steal."  Matthew 6:20

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12733 on: June 13, 2019, 02:53:45 PM »
I am completely sold out. (The third time this year) The chart looks weak. Good luck to everyone!

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12734 on: June 13, 2019, 05:58:27 PM »
Prepared Remarks of Dr. Mark A. Calabria, Director of FHFA, at 2019 Ginnie Mae Summit (today 3:30-4:00pm)

https://www.fhfa.gov/mobile/Pages/public-affairs-detail.aspx?PageName=Prepared-Remarks-of-Dr-Mark-A-Calabria-Director-of-FHFA-at-2019-Ginnie-Mae-Summit.aspx

Thanks Luke.

"And by sometime next year, my hope and expectation is that we will be on the path where Fannie and Freddie can start to build capital."

This caught my eye, in an unpleasant way. Hopefully, I am not reading too much into it, but starting to build capital next year (I have to think this means retained earnings not just capital raising) is a longer an more opaque timeline than what he has previously said. Not very reassuring.

Edit: @luke Looks like you had the same reaction.

Yeah.... I have two concerns for this.
1. "sometime next year". That may not even be 1st Q of next year. Maybe 2nd Q, or 3rd Q.
2. "we will be on the path where Fannie and Freddie can start to build capital." He didn't say "FnF will start to build capital", but "on the path where Fannie and Freddie can start to build capital.". This implies that the ACTUAL time when FnF starts to build capital may be even further away.

Anyway, fundamental is not something I am good at. I was a bit concerned since Tuesday but decided to get out completely today. But that's purely based on my technical analysis.

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12735 on: June 13, 2019, 06:01:31 PM »
Prepared Remarks of Dr. Mark A. Calabria, Director of FHFA, at 2019 Ginnie Mae Summit (today 3:30-4:00pm)

https://www.fhfa.gov/mobile/Pages/public-affairs-detail.aspx?PageName=Prepared-Remarks-of-Dr-Mark-A-Calabria-Director-of-FHFA-at-2019-Ginnie-Mae-Summit.aspx

Doesn't sound like Net Worth Sweep is going to be stopped in 2019...
We will continue to engage with Treasury to develop a responsible plan to end the conservatorships – with a clear road map and mile markers – and to adjust the Treasury share agreements accordingly.

And by sometime next year, my hope and expectation is that we will be on the path where Fannie and Freddie can start to build capital.


Isn't it interesting that since a few years ago, at the beginning of every year, I always thought FnF preferreds are the best idea of the year? Then it goes up, and then dives back. Hope that doesn't happen this year.
We will have en banc coming. Not sure how that will play out.


rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12736 on: June 13, 2019, 08:43:25 PM »
Prepared Remarks of Dr. Mark A. Calabria, Director of FHFA, at 2019 Ginnie Mae Summit (today 3:30-4:00pm)

https://www.fhfa.gov/mobile/Pages/public-affairs-detail.aspx?PageName=Prepared-Remarks-of-Dr-Mark-A-Calabria-Director-of-FHFA-at-2019-Ginnie-Mae-Summit.aspx

Doesn't sound like Net Worth Sweep is going to be stopped in 2019...
We will continue to engage with Treasury to develop a responsible plan to end the conservatorships – with a clear road map and mile markers – and to adjust the Treasury share agreements accordingly.

And by sometime next year, my hope and expectation is that we will be on the path where Fannie and Freddie can start to build capital.


Isn't it interesting that since a few years ago, at the beginning of every year, I always thought FnF preferreds are the best idea of the year? Then it goes up, and then dives back. Hope that doesn't happen this year.
We will have en banc coming. Not sure how that will play out.
Why does this matter to you? You do not own any stock anymore.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12737 on: June 13, 2019, 09:03:45 PM »
As investorG said, time for consolidation. Which means, you can sell now and buy back around September time frame or simply stay put if you don't mind another 10%-15% price drop from here. By September, the pump will re-start and reignite shares. Nothing has changed.

In the next 3 months, Calabria will try to get something out of Congress and by then it will be clearer -to him- whether there is a real chance of doing so or no chance at all. A time when IPO options can be explored in more depth. After consolidation, we go higher.

By 4Q, Calabria will either have new powers at the FHFA plus a good shot at a Congress-approved government guarantee or they will go the route of the commitment fee/line of credit plus a full recap voiding the NWS.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 09:06:44 PM by rros »

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12738 on: June 13, 2019, 10:26:44 PM »
Prepared Remarks of Dr. Mark A. Calabria, Director of FHFA, at 2019 Ginnie Mae Summit (today 3:30-4:00pm)

https://www.fhfa.gov/mobile/Pages/public-affairs-detail.aspx?PageName=Prepared-Remarks-of-Dr-Mark-A-Calabria-Director-of-FHFA-at-2019-Ginnie-Mae-Summit.aspx

Doesn't sound like Net Worth Sweep is going to be stopped in 2019...
We will continue to engage with Treasury to develop a responsible plan to end the conservatorships – with a clear road map and mile markers – and to adjust the Treasury share agreements accordingly.

And by sometime next year, my hope and expectation is that we will be on the path where Fannie and Freddie can start to build capital.


Isn't it interesting that since a few years ago, at the beginning of every year, I always thought FnF preferreds are the best idea of the year? Then it goes up, and then dives back. Hope that doesn't happen this year.
We will have en banc coming. Not sure how that will play out.
Why does this matter to you? You do not own any stock anymore.

I continue to watch stocks that I don’t own.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12739 on: June 14, 2019, 02:52:33 AM »
this delay reinforces the likelihood that initial investor feedback after Calabria's May excitement directed them to give congress a real shot.

without congress, there is higher deal execution risk and/or the new investors would conceivably demand such a margin of safety in terms of pro forma % ownership that the govt and private investors get squeezed.   with congress, the deal might flow easier (depending on what they pass) and allow for greater potential returns for the govt's warrants.

so, it appears they will try congress.  and give them at least the rest of the year to do so.  if that doesn't work, then I guess plan B.  personally, I am disappointed that they can't do them both in parallel - stop the sweep, switch to the periodic commitment fee, and at the same time prioritize congress.  (but I've thought this for a long time and it's just not happening).

good luck, everyone.