Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3222769 times)

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12760 on: June 14, 2019, 11:02:59 AM »
Invest for retirement?  Sure.  But investing in eternity is infinitely more important.  Don't get it twisted.  "...but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys and where thieves do not break in and steal."  Matthew 6:20


Ahab

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12761 on: June 14, 2019, 11:31:25 AM »
I heard something about Lamberth ordering a jury trial floating around on Twitter this week, but wasn't able to verify it elsewhere...
Holdings: FNMAS/J/N, FMCKO, BAC, JPM, GOOG, GM (calls),  Tesla (is a zero)
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orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12762 on: June 14, 2019, 11:52:21 AM »
Barclays GSE event from yesterday - https://imgur.com/VrqjZkb

thanks for the link.

Maybe Calabria thinks/knows that anything he may request from congress for more power for FHFA doesn't get passed either. Maybe the competition request is just a show too.

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12763 on: June 14, 2019, 12:03:41 PM »
“Wrong. Stopping NWS provides FHFA the leverage it needs to raise as much money it needs.

Banks will know that even without their support, they can recap themselves through earnings, increasing G fee, retained earnings etc.

Banks are therefore fearful that their IPO fee is in doldrums if NWS is gone. Banks never liked GSE’s so that they can give higher rates to homebuyers.

Sweep money is GSE money, no one to beg for.  Calabria is either dumb or playing dumb by saying if there is 100 billion lying around and thus weakening himself.

He needs to stop giving it’s own money first . You all are too optimistic trusting him. “


There seems to be an impasse between the economic reality that the GSEs need to continue to exist which involves recapitalization and making investors feel confident to put new money in, and the massive political sentiment against the GSEs held by the TBTF banking cartel. It's hard to imagine the tremendous pressure felt by Mnuchin, Calabria and Trump from the TBTF banking lobby. Given this intense pressure I'd say they're doing a fine job.
This would be a perfect time for en banc. I put the odds of a favorable ruling at 60-65%. I also factor there's more upside with a favorable ruling than downside with an unfavorable ruling, perhaps 50% upside and 30% downside depending on the ruling. So overall, I plan to hold on and wait for that ruling. I would also add: wouldn't it make sense for Calabria/Mnuchin to wait for en banc? I mean, with an unfavorable ruling they're essentially where they are now, nothing lost. But with a favorable ruling a huge political decision has been made for them. The bankers cannot be angered with stopping the NWS if it's the courts that decide, but they COULD be truly pissed off if it's Calabria/Mnuchin that decides. Therefore I think it's quite natural that they wait. I wouldn't read anything else into other than that.

In the meantime, everything has incrementally gotten better.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12764 on: June 14, 2019, 12:35:45 PM »
@Luke

I think treasury/fhfa/large junior holders/litigants all realize that a settlement is necessary, and I think it is no secret that junior holders generally will be satisfied with par, likely converting par into the common at re-IPO price.  since the litigation ask is to kill the seniors, and killing the seniors just so happens to be necessary to re-IPO, it would seem that this settlement would be not a heavy lift. 

so introducing the concept of damages beyond par is not incorrect, just not that relevant imo
« Last Edit: June 14, 2019, 12:46:37 PM by cherzeca »

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12765 on: June 14, 2019, 12:48:00 PM »
Thanks, Christian.

The two comments below work perfectly together (seniors being fully paid back)...
since the litigation ask is to kill the seniors, and killing the seniors just so happens to be necessary to re-IPO, it would seem that this settlement would be not a heavy lift.

Barclays GSE event from yesterday - https://imgur.com/VrqjZkb
Invest for retirement?  Sure.  But investing in eternity is infinitely more important.  Don't get it twisted.  "...but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys and where thieves do not break in and steal."  Matthew 6:20

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12766 on: June 15, 2019, 06:18:28 AM »
“ There was never an explicit guarantee since 1980, why is this even important now? Nonsense”

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12767 on: June 15, 2019, 08:02:04 AM »
For those who believe after all the industry wide talks with Craig Philips, who is supposed to keep a poker face, don't forget one thing: Craig Philips finished his work and currently seeking for a job on Wall Street. Guess what interview questions people on WS are gonna ask him? And what would he say to get the biggest offer package?  ::)
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cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12768 on: June 15, 2019, 10:57:40 AM »
For those who believe after all the industry wide talks with Craig Philips, who is supposed to keep a poker face, don't forget one thing: Craig Philips finished his work and currently seeking for a job on Wall Street. Guess what interview questions people on WS are gonna ask him? And what would he say to get the biggest offer package?  ::)

you have it backwards. street firms won't be doing the picking

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12769 on: June 18, 2019, 08:08:05 AM »
A question for Chris. I was puzzled by this table here:
https://twitter.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1140643774512676864

It almost looks like 50-50 to me for affirm/reverse decisions.

Didn't we say it was 14 reversals out of 16 before?  :o
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!