Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3424352 times)

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12790 on: June 26, 2019, 01:27:08 PM »
re Occam's razor, the simplest explanation is that mnuchin doesn't want the treasury plan delivered to potus until he has signed off on it, and he has been derailed by trade and sanction issues.  one may also speculate that the HUD plan hasn't been finalized yet (I dont see HUD as a particularly efficient agency) and that the inter-agency review is still ongoing.  there are many possibilities.  I just dont think one of these possibilities is that Craig (if I may be so bold as to first name) was fired

btw I have found in life that the simplest explanation is usually wrong

edit: also, I dont believe that disputing that phillips was fired, or concluding that otting was just pep talking out of turn, is an example of confirmation bias.  it simply means that I am unconvinced.  real easy to be unconvinced that phillips was fired when he said multiple times he was going to finish his work on the plan and return to the private sector

edit 2:  as for Occam's razor, occam was a philosopher critiquing other philosopher's speculations regarding metaphysics...not exactly transferable to a heuristic to explain human conduct
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 01:32:51 PM by cherzeca »


cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12791 on: June 26, 2019, 02:44:23 PM »
as for confirmation bias, I think this is one of the least understood aspects of behavioral finance.  of course we have confirmation bias...we are hard wired by evolution to act with confirmation bias.  using present evidence to confirm prior tentative conclusions kept us alive on the savanna. 

now as for finance, if you have developed conviction in a position, of course you will have confirmation bias to place more weight on "good" news than "bad" news, because all news fits into a narrative that you have constructed regarding an investment, and if "bad" news destroys your narrative then your conviction was weak.  if bad news accumulates to the point where your conviction is not weak but no longer understandable to you, then you need to adjust.

the GSE narrative is a very difficult one, more difficult than i had thought.  but if my conviction is (essentially) TINA, the administration wants GSEs out of conservatorship, and the NWS is invalid, a little delay in producing the potus memos is not going to destroy that narrative for me, and if it did, then the conviction was weak.  nothing wrong with having a weak conviction, just move on without casting potshots at those who dont
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 02:46:44 PM by cherzeca »

hardincap

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12792 on: June 26, 2019, 03:37:10 PM »
phillips had been consistent about returning to private sector after 2 years.  also was just awarded treasury's Alexander Hamilton award.  still sticking with the fired scenario?

never meant to insinuate craig was fired. simplest explanation imo is that there was/is internal resistance within admin, as tim howard speculates, and craig either got fed up, protested, or saw nothing more he could do so he resigned

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12793 on: June 26, 2019, 04:26:28 PM »
so think it out. lets say Tim howard is right and there are pro-tbtf guys in the treasury, fed and even WH...what have they been asking for?...initially various forms of wind down of GSEs, which only congress could deliver, and congress got nowhere with strong R majorities...now fallback position is multiple guarantors and a fed guaranty...which will be a nonstarter in HFSC and given sen brown's latest comments, not in the offing on a bipartisan basis in SBC...which leaves us with status quo...which I dont think we will have, a delay yes but the status quo for the next year and a half?  doesn't seem like that is Calabria's agenda, not saying that calabria knows how to raise $100B, but that scenario doesn't seem to be likely.

my thought is to wait for the plans, which frankly I think will be more general than specific, but potus did call for a delineation of what can be implemented administratively v only by congress, and lets see what the admin starts doing, and then see what if anything congress starts doing

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12794 on: June 26, 2019, 05:50:32 PM »
phillips had been consistent about returning to private sector after 2 years.  also was just awarded treasury's Alexander Hamilton award.  still sticking with the fired scenario?

never meant to insinuate craig was fired. simplest explanation imo is that there was/is internal resistance within admin, as tim howard speculates, and craig either got fed up, protested, or saw nothing more he could do so he resigned

I don't think Craig was fired, but it is hard to say if he left happily or unhappily, and then Calabria's comment changed from "IPO early next year" to "Hopefully IPO sometime next year" (Something like that. Don't hold me on this). That is a hint that something is changing. On top of that, Otting's 2-4 week promise never materialized.

There is an incredible magic force that works on these guys, and works on the court as well. As we know, the Perry Appeal was supposed to be a 2:1 win, but some members here posted rumors that Ginsburg got flipped in the last moment. Could the same happen in the 5th appeal court? They just need to flip 1-2 judges to alter the outcome.
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SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12795 on: June 26, 2019, 05:51:33 PM »
Did you guys forget about the part where Calabria, an extremely calculated individual, went on public TV and reiterated IPO while referencing conversion or par for preferreds like 3 weeks ago? 

None of these weird theories would be discussed if the market price hadn't dipped a little bit.

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12796 on: June 26, 2019, 05:55:15 PM »
Did you guys forget about the part where Calabria, an extremely calculated individual, went on public TV and reiterated IPO while referencing conversion or par for preferreds like 3 weeks ago? 

None of these weird theories would be discussed if the market price hadn't dipped a little bit.

It is more concerning that just "market price dipping". It is normal for a stock to pull back after a good run. What concerned me was the internals of the chart. The behavior of the chart looked like a top instead of a retracement before the continuation of another up move. I am not going to disclose how I use TA to analyze and draw these conclusions. Even if I do, I'll be labelled as voodoo one more time.
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cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12797 on: June 26, 2019, 06:04:01 PM »
typically when you do a deal in a normal financial context, you need to concern yourself with parties' rights and incentives, and typically pricing is the way to reach agreement.  when you do a financial transaction in a political context, there are all sorts of extraneous concerns and influences, and it becomes a clusterF unless you have a very coherent core group that can find a political substitute for pricing.  there is not a lot of political transacting going on between admin and congress and, frankly perhaps, within the admin itself.  so this is all muddled and ugly. 

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12798 on: June 26, 2019, 10:11:00 PM »
typically when you do a deal in a normal financial context, you need to concern yourself with parties' rights and incentives, and typically pricing is the way to reach agreement.  when you do a financial transaction in a political context, there are all sorts of extraneous concerns and influences, and it becomes a clusterF unless you have a very coherent core group that can find a political substitute for pricing.  there is not a lot of political transacting going on between admin and congress and, frankly perhaps, within the admin itself.  so this is all muddled and ugly.


That's true. I am glad I am no longer a pure fundamental investor. Otherwise these endless uncertainties freak me out completely.
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orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12799 on: June 27, 2019, 05:14:31 AM »
sorry to be blunt, but that is borderline delusional. you might say, perhaps I am the delusional one? could be! but i say, always better to entertain disconfirming narratives (esp when coming from experts with insider knowledge like tim howard) than confirming. good luck everyone.

Dont know about delusional but certainly some GSE investor fatigue. The more you think about this saga the more it will drive you nuts.