Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3239333 times)

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12930 on: July 11, 2019, 12:06:47 AM »
You used past tense. "Once again the price behaviors change and TA warnings all over the place before bad news came out."

 
That is just a summary. Here is the actual document.

So now fhfa believe it's constitutional.

Trying to push the decision back? Would that even work?

Wow. I was busy working yesterday and just saw this.  :o This is mind blowing to me.
Once again the price behaviors change and TA warnings all over the place before bad news came out.

Forecasting is always easier in hindsight

This is an absurd comment. I've always commented in real time. Where did you get the impression that I was talking about this in hindsight?

LOL. I can't talk about the past. I can't talk about the present. I can't talk about the future. What can I talk about?

Well humor me then.  What happens next?

I donít have a clear view of that right now.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!


DRValue

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12931 on: July 11, 2019, 02:46:17 AM »
You used past tense. "Once again the price behaviors change and TA warnings all over the place before bad news came out."

 
That is just a summary. Here is the actual document.

So now fhfa believe it's constitutional.

Trying to push the decision back? Would that even work?

Wow. I was busy working yesterday and just saw this.  :o This is mind blowing to me.
Once again the price behaviors change and TA warnings all over the place before bad news came out.

Forecasting is always easier in hindsight

This is an absurd comment. I've always commented in real time. Where did you get the impression that I was talking about this in hindsight?

LOL. I can't talk about the past. I can't talk about the present. I can't talk about the future. What can I talk about?

Well humor me then.  What happens next?

I donít have a clear view of that right now.

Wow, TA really is like shaking an 8 ball!
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research.

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12932 on: July 11, 2019, 04:38:48 AM »
You used past tense. "Once again the price behaviors change and TA warnings all over the place before bad news came out."

 
That is just a summary. Here is the actual document.

So now fhfa believe it's constitutional.

Trying to push the decision back? Would that even work?

Wow. I was busy working yesterday and just saw this.  :o This is mind blowing to me.
Once again the price behaviors change and TA warnings all over the place before bad news came out.

Forecasting is always easier in hindsight

This is an absurd comment. I've always commented in real time. Where did you get the impression that I was talking about this in hindsight?

LOL. I can't talk about the past. I can't talk about the present. I can't talk about the future. What can I talk about?

Well humor me then.  What happens next?

I donít have a clear view of that right now.

I'm stunned

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12933 on: July 11, 2019, 06:26:30 AM »
 :o :o
SnarkyPuppy, DRValue, you guys are just making fun of me right?
I am stunned that you are stunned.

I was lucky enough to be trained by a really great trader. He told me something like:
"There are two types of poker players. The one that play aggreesively when they have good hands and fold when they don't. The one that always seek for actions. The second type don't even deserve success."

While I am not saying which type you guys are, I would certainly be surprised that you guys think I would be the second type. ;)
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

buffetteer1984

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12934 on: July 11, 2019, 06:29:19 AM »
You used past tense. "Once again the price behaviors change and TA warnings all over the place before bad news came out."

 
That is just a summary. Here is the actual document.

So now fhfa believe it's constitutional.

Trying to push the decision back? Would that even work?

Wow. I was busy working yesterday and just saw this.  :o This is mind blowing to me.
Once again the price behaviors change and TA warnings all over the place before bad news came out.

Forecasting is always easier in hindsight

This is an absurd comment. I've always commented in real time. Where did you get the impression that I was talking about this in hindsight?

LOL. I can't talk about the past. I can't talk about the present. I can't talk about the future. What can I talk about?

Well humor me then.  What happens next?

I donít have a clear view of that right now.

I'm stunned

I don't understand the attitude. Muscleman is obviously trying to contribute in a respectable manner and you're sitting on your high horse judging.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12935 on: July 11, 2019, 06:46:13 AM »
while none of us moderates this thread, I would suggest that we should calm down.  MM has explained his method and while I for one dont really understand it, what I do understand is that he feels comfortable using it, and it works for him psychologically.

I for one use this thread to think through my ideas, which I do better when I write than just sit with a gin in my hand, and look for feedback to my ideas.  another valuable resource is your picking up on events and reporting that I miss. most of the news I read on this thread is new to me when I read it.

some feedback I disagree with, of course, and some I dont understand. and then there is Emily. but I dont think MM needs to defend TA on this thread.  as for his poker example, it is hard enough with the GSEs to understand what kind of hand you are playing from time to time, so let's all proceed with the humility that this investing situation requires of us

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12936 on: July 11, 2019, 06:47:35 AM »
That is just a summary. Here is the actual document.

the meat of Collins is in the APA claim IMO.  it's cleaner and more direct.   In addition, Calabria's change is an attempt to protect his job for a full term which makes sense.   

the pending Collins verdict is huge.  a loss, and we're at the mercy of the govt, price targets and goals will likely be cut for both preferred and common.   a win, and we have a real seat in negotiations.    guessing here, but that's likely why things are stalled, everyone is waiting for this.   I'm nervous for the outcome.   

Good luck, everyone.   

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12937 on: July 11, 2019, 06:50:24 AM »
while none of us moderates this thread, I would suggest that we should calm down.  MM has explained his method and while I for one dont really understand it, what I do understand is that he feels comfortable using it, and it works for him psychologically.

I for one use this thread to think through my ideas, which I do better when I write than just sit with a gin in my hand, and look for feedback to my ideas.  another valuable resource is your picking up on events and reporting that I miss. most of the news I read on this thread is new to me when I read it.

some feedback I disagree with, of course, and some I dont understand. and then there is Emily. but I dont think MM needs to defend TA on this thread.  as for his poker example, it is hard enough with the GSEs to understand what kind of hand you are playing from time to time, so let's all proceed with the humility that this investing situation requires of us

Thank you Chris. I guess it is wise to stop defending TA then. After all, people on this thread find it hard to understand. Let's use this thread to focus on the GSE events and fundamental analysis.
I wouldn't be able to do well either without watching people posting those event here. For example, I didn't know Bill Maloni is the whack job. I didn't know he was spreading rumors about the 5th court ruling coming on that Friday afternoon. Those are the type of events that turned me from very bullish to bearish.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12938 on: July 11, 2019, 06:51:11 AM »
The Hamish hume letter regarding conversion is surprising to me.   maybe he wants them to turn back on dividends and certain preferred classes could possibly trade > par?   or is he mainly concerned about new lawsuits from common holders slowing down the whole process if they get diluted too much?   
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 06:52:42 AM by investorG »

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12939 on: July 11, 2019, 06:56:12 AM »
That is just a summary. Here is the actual document.

the meat of Collins is in the APA claim IMO.  it's cleaner and more direct.   In addition, Calabria's change is an attempt to protect his job for a full term which makes sense.   

the pending Collins verdict is huge.  a loss, and we're at the mercy of the govt, price targets and goals will likely be cut for both preferred and common.   a win, and we have a real seat in negotiations.    guessing here, but that's likely why things are stalled, everyone is waiting for this.   I'm nervous for the outcome.   

Good luck, everyone.

If Trump is the law and order guy, so should his workforce like Calabria. His attempt to defend the constitutionality of FHFA could have side effects in the long run.
1. Let's say we lose Collins, and Calabria magically makes preferred whole. Later when he steps down, a Dem appointed FHFA director could have so much power that he could do another 3rd amendment. What could you do then?
2. If the above concern is real, then the current IPO would be even harder, because shareholders would ask that same question. They won't do it unless they feel protected.
3. The fact that Calabria needs to defend his job implies that this recap process may take way longer than what we thought, which is bearish for us.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!