Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3455977 times)



orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12941 on: July 12, 2019, 07:38:21 AM »
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-freddie-overhaul-could-mean-windfall-for-preferred-stock-analyst-says-2019-07-12?mod=mw_share_twitter

Was just going to post that. Everyone is in the dark, pick a side, place a bet and watch it play out.  We seem to be approaching maximum negativity and frustration. The plan must be coming out soon!  ;D

Jcmeg35

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12942 on: July 12, 2019, 07:39:36 AM »
@luke, Thanks for posting

@chereza, not that I put much weight in Bove's opinion, but given the dearth of coverage from the street, I think it is useful to read his comments, since he gets interviewed and is written about, etc. I am looking forward to the point where the bulge brackets again begin recovering both companies.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-freddie-overhaul-could-mean-windfall-for-preferred-stock-analyst-says-2019-07-12?mod=mw_share_twitter

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12943 on: July 12, 2019, 07:41:45 AM »
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-freddie-overhaul-could-mean-windfall-for-preferred-stock-analyst-says-2019-07-12?mod=mw_share_twitter

this analyst picked a bad deal to initiate coverage.  but I find the level of detail interesting (usually an analyst writing a detailed piece shows it to someone who knows what is going on and asks am I in the ballpark?  of course he could just be winging it like the Bloomberg journos).

remember this guy is an analyst who makes money by writing pieces that are well thought out and on which his clients can make money.  the Bloomberg journos have no repercussions if they are wrong, and in fact make more money whether right or wrong as long as splashy

18436572

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12944 on: July 12, 2019, 07:57:18 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/former-freddie-mac-ceo-plans-to-keep-hand-in-housing-finance-11562932800?shareToken=stacda0ce30d1d455ca47e0c1bf814b6ff&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

"Mr. Layton: No, it isnít impossible. Four or five years of retained earnings, then do an IPO of more-likely digestible size that would be contemporaneous with the conservatorship ending and with the shareholders getting their full rights. Thatís the baseline. I know a lot of people who would love to accelerate from that, but then they have to deal with all of these trade-offs. That acceleration is one area thatís hard.
"

« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 08:12:37 AM by 18436572 »

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12945 on: July 12, 2019, 08:28:40 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/former-freddie-mac-ceo-plans-to-keep-hand-in-housing-finance-11562932800?shareToken=stacda0ce30d1d455ca47e0c1bf814b6ff&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

"Mr. Layton: No, it isnít impossible. Four or five years of retained earnings, then do an IPO of more-likely digestible size that would be contemporaneous with the conservatorship ending and with the shareholders getting their full rights. Thatís the baseline. I know a lot of people who would love to accelerate from that, but then they have to deal with all of these trade-offs. That acceleration is one area thatís hard.
"

big news day.  while Layton makes a far point that it would be easier to do an offering if one retains earnings for four years and do a re-IPO then, which is his baseline, he doesn't really address what I expect to happen, which is to do an initial re-IPO up front along with retaining earnings, and a final offering(s) as capital is built up.  his point may simply be that you cant do an offering while in conservatorship.  he didn't make that point, but if that is his point, then he should explain it.

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12946 on: July 12, 2019, 10:03:20 AM »
All this news deluge does is prove no ones knows any more then anyone else. What else is new. At this point wondering what is taking so long is useless IMO as the possibilities are endless, both good and bad. Can only wait for FHFA capital rules and Treasury Plan.

Back to waiting for Godot.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12947 on: July 12, 2019, 10:18:00 AM »
All this news deluge does is prove no ones knows any more then anyone else. What else is new. At this point wondering what is taking so long is useless IMO as the possibilities are endless, both good and bad. Can only wait for FHFA capital rules and Treasury Plan.

Back to waiting for Godot.

and the HUD plan.  as you recall POTUS asked for both, and inasmuch as Phillips worked at treasury and not HUD (and therefor probably didn't have much input on the HUD plan), god knows the status of the HUD plan.  I infer from calling for both plans that there will be some coordination between the plans, but it could be that we are all waiting on HUD

allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12948 on: July 12, 2019, 10:50:50 AM »

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12949 on: July 12, 2019, 10:53:17 AM »
Interesting development... https://twitter.com/os4___/status/1149737247375273985

The only quote in the entire article. Presidential priority.  Updated 10 minutes ago.

“The president earlier this year instructed the Department of Treasury to develop a comprehensive plan for bold reform,” White House spokesman Judd Deere said in an email statement. The National Economic Council, Treasury, Federal Housing Finance Agency and others “continue to work together on this presidential priority and anything to suggest otherwise is false,” Deere said.

I also wouldn't completely discount the possibility that articles in the past two days discussing receivership and delay, delay, delay without one high-ranking source or even an anonymous quote were the work of those that have been so adamantly against the GSE's for many years.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 01:28:05 PM by Luke 5:32 »
Take 4 minutes and listen to it. "Stars" by Skillet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbLJyjfyACM