Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3323703 times)

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12950 on: July 12, 2019, 06:13:19 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-12/trump-team-grows-wary-of-fannie-freddie-fix-before-2020-election

More delays.  Not entirely unexpected, but frustrating for sure...

Perhaps most significantly, Treasury and FHFA could halt a policy that requires the companies to send nearly all their earnings to the Treasury. Though one person familiar with the matter cautioned that ending the so-called profit sweep is unlikely to happen this year.

Signs that the administration is moving more slowly than anticipated are evident. The Treasury is yet to issue a long-awaited report on its plan for getting Fannie and Freddie out of the governmentís grip, despite Calabria saying he hoped it would be released by the end of June. Now, agencies are aiming to get the document out within the next couple of months, according to people familiar with the matter.


By the way, not sure if this matters, but Josh Rosner is calling B.S. on this article:
https://twitter.com/JoshRosner/status/1149660412540907521

Disappointing for sure. But I donít think it is BS. Remember Calabriaís tone changed from IPO in Q1 next year to Hopefully sometime next year? Thatís good enough indication for me to completely unload even if I were still a pure FA investor. If I were still hoping on Collins, at least Iíd sell half.
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Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12951 on: July 12, 2019, 06:20:33 AM »
Disappointing for sure. But I don’t think it is BS. Remember Calabria’s tone changed from IPO in Q1 next year to Hopefully sometime next year? That’s good enough indication for me to completely unload even if I were still a pure FA investor. If I were still hoping on Collins, at least I’d sell half.

Sure, but I am more disappointed on the report being delayed.  It's likely not the actual IPO taking place that moves the stock, it's the plan to do so officially being announced (along with other details involving the capital raise, how to deal with the lawsuits, etc.). 

I'm not into trying to time things like you are, so there's no way I'd sell a single share given the price relative to par and what I believe is a very strong thesis for the preferred shares.

And for what it's worth, I fully expect the share prices to fall based on people selling some or all of their position.  It's easier to sell a position when it's small.  I'd rather have the price temporarily fluctuate against me than sell a large position that would take a long time to reacquire and likely at higher prices given the illiquid nature of the preferreds.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 06:29:04 AM by Luke 5:32 »
Take 4 minutes and listen to it. "Stars" by Skillet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbLJyjfyACM

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12952 on: July 12, 2019, 06:35:48 AM »
Lots of chatter/opinions from the "other side" lately huh? As Rosner points out no one is named and and like the IMF article just negative fluff with no real basis. Not much to read into IMO other then there must be a TON of pressure behind the scenes against everything we as shareholder want OR a full court press by the opposition as a last gasp.

What I have found interesting is you havent heard/cant hear much from "our side" as those that would benefit greatly surely would be cast in a negative light as part of the hedge fund windfall crowd. Thus all you get is dialogue from calabria etc but nothing else. Let the price goes down, wont affect the end product.

Either the plan comes out in a couple months, FHFA capital rules come out soon, the NWS stops this fall, capital build/IPO happens in Q1-Q2 of 2020 or this gets delayed till after the election.

hardincap

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12953 on: July 12, 2019, 06:49:21 AM »
Were Otting's comments on the record?

Did you not read about a month ago when it was said Phillips would leave but not until he was done?  It's not like his leaving was in the middle of the night... it was announced at least a few weeks before he departed.

Sure, confirmation bias is a b****, but mere confirmation from those calling the shots is a beautiful thing.

luke, how do you explain the continued delays and reneging of previously committed timelines and positions (collins about-face)?

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12954 on: July 12, 2019, 06:52:41 AM »
Were Otting's comments on the record?

Did you not read about a month ago when it was said Phillips would leave but not until he was done?  It's not like his leaving was in the middle of the night... it was announced at least a few weeks before he departed.

Sure, confirmation bias is a b****, but mere confirmation from those calling the shots is a beautiful thing.

luke, how do you explain the continued delays and reneging of previously committed timelines and positions (collins about-face)?

I explain the continued delays by saying I was wrong.  Wrong on the timing of this but I still haven't read anything that says the preferreds get hurt long-term.  May take longer than I had hoped, but I don't think the thesis has changed.
Take 4 minutes and listen to it. "Stars" by Skillet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbLJyjfyACM

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12955 on: July 12, 2019, 06:57:01 AM »
Disappointing for sure. But I donít think it is BS. Remember Calabriaís tone changed from IPO in Q1 next year to Hopefully sometime next year? Thatís good enough indication for me to completely unload even if I were still a pure FA investor. If I were still hoping on Collins, at least Iíd sell half.

Sure, but I am more disappointed on the report being delayed.  It's likely not the actual IPO taking place that moves the stock, it's the plan to do so officially being announced (along with other details involving the capital raise, how to deal with the lawsuits, etc.). 

I'm not into trying to time things like you are, so there's no way I'd sell a single share given the price relative to par and what I believe is a very strong thesis for the preferred shares.

And for what it's worth, I fully expect the share prices to fall based on people selling some or all of their position.  It's easier to sell a position when it's small.  I'd rather have the price temporarily fluctuate against me than sell a large position that would take a long time to reacquire and likely at higher prices given the illiquid nature of the preferreds.


what you mentioned about illiquidity is exactly what I felt last year. I have the ability to time stocks but a lot of times I didnít sell because of the same reason you mentioned and then it just kept falling and falling and eventually I got out when it was way down. Not related to GSEs but other super illiquid name in general. So this year I am only focusing on stocks that I can build positions within one day.

A few days ago when people were Taunting me and saying down 7% from the top is nothing to worry about, now it is down another 14% today. Be very careful of the crack of the canary of the coal mine situation. My biggest shortcoming as a value investor was not knowing when to sell. Almost the entire value investing literature is teaching how to buy and what to buy (not even when to buy). Regarding selling, there is almost no mention of that. Last year my primary focus was to figure that out.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 07:01:37 AM by muscleman »
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hardincap

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12956 on: July 12, 2019, 07:02:00 AM »
IMO, you are further wrong to think the pref thesis still holds. Because prefs have a capped return, timing has to be a part of the thesis, so if you are wrong on timing, the thesis is wrong. so to clarify your thesis then, how long do you think is "longer than I had hoped"?

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12957 on: July 12, 2019, 07:06:03 AM »
A few days ago when people were Taunting me and saying down 7% from the top is nothing to worry about, now it is down another 14% today. Be very careful of the crack of the canary of the coal mine situation. My biggest shortcoming as a value investor was not knowing when to sell. Almost the entire value investing literature is teaching how to buy and what to buy (not even when to buy). Regarding selling, there is almost no mention of that. Last year my primary focus was to figure that out.

I want to be clear I was never taunting you.  Others maybe were, but I wasn't.
 
Your points are appreciated but they still have to do with pricing of a security and don't take into account the thesis of the underlying company.  The stocks could be down 50% today, does that change the thesis?  No.  The stocks could be up 50% today, but again doesn't change the thesis.  As a value investor the buy price and sell price matter to me, what happens in the interim is irrelevant. 

I think most value investors would tell you to sell when the stock is at or near intrinsic value.  It's probably not discussed more because it seems like that would be the only logical place for someone in the value investing philosophy to sell... we wouldn't hold it past intrinsic value, and we wouldn't be tempted to sell it at a steep discount from intrinsic value.
Take 4 minutes and listen to it. "Stars" by Skillet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbLJyjfyACM

hardincap

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12958 on: July 12, 2019, 07:09:01 AM »
also, how do you (and others here) interpret craig's departure now?

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12959 on: July 12, 2019, 07:10:38 AM »
IMO, you are further wrong to think the pref thesis still holds. Because prefs have a capped return, timing has to be a part of the thesis, so if you are wrong on timing, the thesis is wrong. so to clarify your thesis then, how long do you think is "longer than I had hoped"?

You think the pref thesis is shot? 

I hear what you're saying regarding timing, hardincap.  If this were trading much closer to par then timing would be a much bigger issue in terms of rate of return.  But trading at half or less than half of par the favorable outcome would dwarf the market even if it took a very long time. 
Take 4 minutes and listen to it. "Stars" by Skillet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbLJyjfyACM