Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 2490877 times)

doc75

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8870 on: December 10, 2017, 07:40:57 PM »
Think about it. If we were only told about reauthorization of jumpstart (that is real and happening this Tuesday) ? Instead we were told  of a rumor that we will be made whole, to sort of calm things down.  Joe Light did not even bring up once of jumpstart. I am relatively new to this but I read that there have been many rumors to date that were no less than fake news. Check out how many have been tweeting to their congressman to defeat jumpstart.  Calming things down is in Corkerís interest who started jumpstart in the first place.

Pardon me for being daft, but what exactly is the benefit of throwing a carrot at shareholders in this way?   How does it grease the wheels of anything in particular (e.g. the jumpstart reauth)?
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Well yes, I had thought about it and wondered if that's what you meant.  I still don't get it.

The fake news only placates GSE shareholders.    Nobody's been worried about our outrage for a decade so I don't see why they're too concerned with calming us down right now.  Especially with all the court decisions going the gov'ts way.    Would the congressmen be receiving materially more angry tweets about jumpstart without the subterfuge?   

I agree that it seems something screwy is going on.  I just don't see the point of this little PR exercise, if that's what it is.  My initial thought was that it provided a nice exit for some folks. 




rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8871 on: December 10, 2017, 08:33:45 PM »
Quote
My initial thought was that it provided a nice exit for some folks.
You mean like the 2015 exit made possible by an orchestrated leak from... was it Alpha Capital Partners in DC, before everything tanked a few months after that? It's possible.

doc75

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8872 on: December 11, 2017, 07:18:21 AM »
Quote
My initial thought was that it provided a nice exit for some folks.
You mean like the 2015 exit made possible by an orchestrated leak from... was it Alpha Capital Partners in DC, before everything tanked a few months after that? It's possible.

I wasn't thinking of any specific analogy -- didn't even know about the 2015 orchestrated leak.  To me it's simply a more rational motive for spreading the rumour.


rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8873 on: December 12, 2017, 05:56:43 AM »
Height Securities updates on GSEs

Height Securities says the outlook for Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC) improved significantly over the last week as housing finance reform was taken up by Congress.
"While a copy of the draft is not available at present, there are some additional details emerging. The GSEs will either lose their charters or the charters will be very limited. The entities will be considered guarantors and regulated by the Federal Housing Finance Authority," updates the firm.
"We expect the GSEs will continue to operate in conservatorship until they are recapitalized," adds Height.

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8874 on: December 12, 2017, 06:15:10 AM »
Dick Bove discusses GSE's this morning with Maria Bartiromo starting at the 3 minute, 45 second mark: http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5677611451001/?playlist_id=1866680862001#sp=show-clips
Doesn't beat around the bush, gets right down to the business of Christ laying down His life and conquering death for you, me, and everybody else that accepts Him. "Oh death, where is your sting? Oh Hell, where is your victory?" Listen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bJzhkWVANc

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8875 on: December 12, 2017, 08:12:54 AM »
Mayopoulos today: http://fortune.com/2017/12/12/on-leading-fannie-mae-outlook/

(paraphrased) "We've paid them back plus about $50 billion."

When is the last time Mayopoulos publicly discussed the payments to Treasury?
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 08:15:50 AM by Luke 5:32 »
Doesn't beat around the bush, gets right down to the business of Christ laying down His life and conquering death for you, me, and everybody else that accepts Him. "Oh death, where is your sting? Oh Hell, where is your victory?" Listen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bJzhkWVANc

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8876 on: December 12, 2017, 09:44:10 AM »
Think about it. If we were only told about reauthorization of jumpstart (that is real and happening this Tuesday) ? Instead we were told  of a rumor that we will be made whole, to sort of calm things down.  Joe Light did not even bring up once of jumpstart. I am relatively new to this but I read that there have been many rumors to date that were no less than fake news. Check out how many have been tweeting to their congressman to defeat jumpstart.  Calming things down is in Corkerís interest who started jumpstart in the first place.


time will tell whether joe's reporting was accurate or fake but it appears the market is isn't buying its accuracy with the illiquid preferreds still close to 20pct of par.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8877 on: December 12, 2017, 09:46:51 AM »
Height Securities updates on GSEs

Height Securities says the outlook for Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC) improved significantly over the last week as housing finance reform was taken up by Congress.
"While a copy of the draft is not available at present, there are some additional details emerging. The GSEs will either lose their charters or the charters will be very limited. The entities will be considered guarantors and regulated by the Federal Housing Finance Authority," updates the firm.
"We expect the GSEs will continue to operate in conservatorship until they are recapitalized," adds Height.

interesting. the market is in 'show-me' mode.  FnF investors used up their 9 lives of hope a long time ago.

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8878 on: December 12, 2017, 07:31:42 PM »
Height Securities updates on GSEs

Height Securities says the outlook for Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC) improved significantly over the last week as housing finance reform was taken up by Congress.
"While a copy of the draft is not available at present, there are some additional details emerging. The GSEs will either lose their charters or the charters will be very limited. The entities will be considered guarantors and regulated by the Federal Housing Finance Authority," updates the firm.
"We expect the GSEs will continue to operate in conservatorship until they are recapitalized," adds Height.

interesting. the market is in 'show-me' mode.  FnF investors used up their 9 lives of hope a long time ago.

This is in reference to the Hensarling bill correct? Not the Corker/Warner bill that was reported to be friendly to preferred.

Hensarling said in his release he wanted the charters repealed.

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8879 on: December 12, 2017, 08:34:26 PM »
http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/12/fannie-mae-foes-gse-reform/

Seems one potential outcome to me is bank-centric reform is passed by congress (facilitated through jumpstart extension) as referenced in the link above.   Bulls will argue that this doesn't:

1. Maximize the value of governments warrants
2. Solve for outstanding litigation

  • Regarding point 1:   Maybe we're missing the true incentive structure here?   Is it possible that maximum economic benefit for the US government is truly the #1 incentive driving trump/mnuchin decision making?   Is it possible that alternative incentives are involved?   
    • Mnuchin worked 17 years for a "TBTF" bank and likely has large incentive to increase business for the banks.   Maybe his relationships w/ Paulson and Berkowitz are only a small segment of his broader network which could benefit from housing finance reform?   
    • If re-election is the #1 incentive at play, it's possible that providing economic benefits to large banks provides reciprocity in the form of fundraising for the 2020 election?
    • If tax reform is the #1 incentive at play (has more legacy value), it's possible that conceding value to shareholders in favor of increasing likelihood of passing tax reform is a rational move.
       
  • Regarding point 2:   lol.

Just trying to provide an alternative perspective here.    I think it's increasingly obvious where Congress is directionally headed.   
« Last Edit: December 13, 2017, 07:40:59 PM by SnarkyPuppy »