Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 1847927 times)

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8870 on: December 07, 2017, 07:02:04 AM »
Looks like screenshots from a bill (pulled from Twitter so can't verify it). See attached...

hmmm. lots to think about here.  especially since we don't know what mnuchin wants.

on one hand, he thinks extending jumpstart for a year is fine since he really does want to work with congress and avoid friction with the Republicans.

on the other hand, he could recoil from this, realizing he loses leverage in negotiations in 2018, and play chicken with Congress if they resist completing the govt funding or tax reform over this. he might also want to settle lawsuits with a 4th amendment, and this could scuttle that plan.

there's not a lot of volume in the lower price preferreds which tells me that the mkt doesn't fully buy this joe light article.


orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8871 on: December 07, 2017, 07:17:19 AM »
Looks like screenshots from a bill (pulled from Twitter so can't verify it). See attached...

hmmm. lots to think about here.  especially since we don't know what mnuchin wants.

on one hand, he thinks extending jumpstart for a year is fine since he really does want to work with congress and avoid friction with the Republicans.

on the other hand, he could recoil from this, realizing he loses leverage in negotiations in 2018, and play chicken with Congress if they resist completing the govt funding or tax reform over this. he might also want to settle lawsuits with a 4th amendment, and this could scuttle that plan.

there's not a lot of volume in the lower price preferreds which tells me that the mkt doesn't fully buy this joe light article.

Lets see what the end of the day volume is on the preferred. Put in an order for the less liquid preferred and extremely hard to come by. Who would be selling with this news at these prices?

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8872 on: December 07, 2017, 07:17:54 AM »
Here is another thing. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/03/us/politics/government-shutdown-republicans-congress-spending.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

My thought being they aren't going to give up on the sweep unless they have to. I see a correction coming in terms of the valuation of the preferreds in the market. However, I'm 100 percent out of the FnF preferreds, so take it as you will.

Ouch, sorry Wayne.

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8873 on: December 07, 2017, 07:18:20 AM »
Lorraine Woellert states the obvious... or what should be obvious.

https://twitter.com/Woellert/status/938752036656566272
 Lorraine‏Verified account @Woellert
Replying to @billrad

In any scenario involving shares, preferreds will come back first. Commons will be at the end of the line. Thatís my best understanding at the moment.
You are willing to give your life, if necessary, to protect a stranger... me, my bride, each one of our children. For that I thank you every single day, veterans. And I consider you a friend. "Greater love has no one than this, that someone lay down his life for his friends." John 15:13

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8874 on: December 07, 2017, 07:19:43 AM »
Looks like screenshots from a bill (pulled from Twitter so can't verify it). See attached...

hmmm. lots to think about here.  especially since we don't know what mnuchin wants.

on one hand, he thinks extending jumpstart for a year is fine since he really does want to work with congress and avoid friction with the Republicans.

on the other hand, he could recoil from this, realizing he loses leverage in negotiations in 2018, and play chicken with Congress if they resist completing the govt funding or tax reform over this. he might also want to settle lawsuits with a 4th amendment, and this could scuttle that plan.

there's not a lot of volume in the lower price preferreds which tells me that the mkt doesn't fully buy this joe light article.

Lets see what the end of the day volume is on the preferred. Put in an order for the less liquid preferred and extremely hard to come by. Who would be selling with this news at these prices?

I try to think at things from multiple angles.

what if the joe light article was simply a way to grease through the jumpstart extension, and ultimately means little?

or what if the corker plan pays back preferreds but only over many years, which reduces the NPV?

I wouldn't be writing this if conveniently the jumpstart renewal didn't appear 12 hours after the Bloomberg article.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2017, 07:22:04 AM by investorG »

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8875 on: December 07, 2017, 07:24:17 AM »
I try to think at things from multiple angles.

what if the joe light article was simply a way to grease through the jumpstart extension, and ultimately means little?

That's a healthy way to look at things (from different angles).

That certainly could be the case here, but Ackman going out of his way to sing the praises of Corker and Warner is incredibly interesting and makes me lean towards the Light article having some merit.  But I'm biased given my stake in prefs.

Seems to be at least 2 bills floating around: Jumpstart extension and revised Corker/Warner that is shareholder friendly (or so it seems). 

Going to be a wild ride.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2017, 07:27:13 AM by Luke 5:32 »
You are willing to give your life, if necessary, to protect a stranger... me, my bride, each one of our children. For that I thank you every single day, veterans. And I consider you a friend. "Greater love has no one than this, that someone lay down his life for his friends." John 15:13

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8876 on: December 07, 2017, 07:26:28 AM »
why would treasury be cool with a plan that does not redound to common when it owns 80% of common?

no_free_lunch

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8877 on: December 07, 2017, 07:29:54 AM »
We can speculate but you now have a bloomberg article stating that the preferred's are likely to be made whole or at least mostly whole.  I view this as progress.

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8878 on: December 07, 2017, 07:31:12 AM »
What's going on with the preferreds? Up 30% today. Didn't find any news

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8879 on: December 07, 2017, 07:32:00 AM »
What's going on with the preferreds? Up 30% today. Didn't find any news

LOL, good one!
You are willing to give your life, if necessary, to protect a stranger... me, my bride, each one of our children. For that I thank you every single day, veterans. And I consider you a friend. "Greater love has no one than this, that someone lay down his life for his friends." John 15:13